Finance, in brief

Moving oil costs more

Brent crude, the world's main oil price, rose to $107.51 a barrel on Monday. [5] Rates on Middle East tanker routes are up close to 500% on a year earlier. [19] The seaport in Mogadishu, Somalia's capital, is working with exporters on new routes to avoid the troubled straits. [20]

Borrowing getting dearer

Goldman Sachs now expects the US central bank to raise interest rates on Wednesday. [10] Markets see a 76% chance that Japan's central bank raises its rate on Friday. [11] The ten-year US government borrowing rate ended last week at 4.97%. [13]

Elections coming up

Donald Trump said the war with Iran will likely end right after the US midterm elections in November. [3] Polls suggest a US rate rise before that vote could add to voters' worries about living costs. [16] Britain's prime minister is reported to be waiting until after a by-election to decide on a gas field. [28]

Worries about AI companies

Futures on the Nasdaq 100, an index of big US tech shares, fell 1.2% as investors weighed warnings about AI safety. [18] OpenAI's chief, Sam Altman, said now would be an ill-advised moment to list the company's shares. [22]

2 pressures seen across the day run through Finance too.

• Oil and fuel stuck behind the GulfHigh ↑ · seen in 3 beats→
• Loans getting dearerHigh ↑ · seen in 2 beats→

1. 1Saudi Arabia's pipeline around Hormuz stays shut, the Gulf talks are postponed, and oil passes $107
2. 2Goldman Sachs now expects a US rate rise
3. 3Trump says the US should pay the world's lowest rate
4. 4Shares in Asia fall as oil climbs
5. 5The yen holds near a seven-month high

Watch whether the pipeline restarts before the oil stored at Yanbu runs out, which three industry sources put at five to seven days of exports. [1]

When the war closed most ways to move Gulf oil, buyers began bidding for the few ships left, so their owners collect several times more per voyage.

There are fewer other ships a customer can hire, so each trip on his ship pays several times what it did.

The pipeline was one of the few ways left to get Gulf oil out.

With it shut, the few ships and the stored oil that remain carry more of the load, and each barrel costs more.

Rates on Middle East tanker routes are up close to 500%, because long-time customers are now bidding against strangers for the same few ships.

When the usual ports in the Gulf became hard to reach, Mogadishu's importers had to pay for other journeys, including a ship straight from Sri Lanka.

High gas prices are paying for new gas projects now. Those projects are what will add supply later and bring the cost back down.

Ships now on order would ease the shortage in 18 to 36 months, and a reopened strait would end it much sooner.

That means a refinery, a trucker buying diesel at more than $6 a gallon, and a shopper in Mogadishu whose sugar came by a new route.

Each of them sees a higher price at a pump or a shop, and almost none of them can tell which ship or pipe it came from.

Also seen in World and Money.

Goldman Sachs, one of the biggest US investment banks, now expects the US central bank to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday. [10][11]

It had previously forecast no change. [10] Traders put the chance of a rise at 86% after August's consumer prices came in hotter than expected. [11]

It would be the first rise since mid-2023, from a rate now set at 3.5% to 3.75%. [11][17] JPMorgan's chief US economist expects a second rise in December. [11]

A rise makes borrowing dearer for households and companies. [17] The ten-year US government borrowing rate already ended last week at 4.97%, and 30-year US mortgage rates went above 7%. [13][31]

Also seen in Money.

US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that no country should have lower interest rates than the United States. [16]

He spoke to reporters at his golf resort in Doonbeg, Ireland, three days before the US central bank decides. [16]

He said he did not know whether it would raise rates, but that the US should pay the lowest rate whatever the inflation figures say. [16]

Earlier this month he threatened to cut off all US trade with some countries if the US central bank did not cut rates. [13]

The US central bank meets weeks before the US midterm elections, and Reuters/Ipsos polls suggest a rate rise could add to voters' worries about the cost of living. [16]

Trump's approval ratings have fallen as inflation has stayed high. [16]

Japan's Nikkei share index fell 1.7% on Monday, and South Korea's main index dropped 3.3%. [11]

Futures on Wall Street, which let traders bet on where shares will open, pointed lower too. [11]

Last week the Dow Jones index of big US companies fell 1.6%, its biggest weekly drop since March. [18]

Investors were weighing dearer oil, a likely US rate rise and new worries about artificial intelligence. [18]

Higher government borrowing rates make the profits companies expect in future years worth less today. [13]

Goldman Sachs's chief US share strategist looked at the last seven rounds of US rate rises. [11]

Shares fell 2% on average in the first three months, then rose 9% in the 12 months after the first rise. [11]

The Japanese yen traded at 153.49 to the US dollar on Monday, close to the seven-month high it touched last week. [14] It has gained about 4% this month. [14]

In July a dollar bought almost 164 yen. [11] Markets see about a 76% chance that the Bank of Japan, the country's central bank, raises its rate to 1.25% on Friday. [11]

The Bank of England is expected to hold at 3.75% on Thursday, though the vote could be split, and Taiwan's central bank is expected to raise rates. [11][15]

Japanese workers got their biggest pay rise in almost three decades, part of the case for Japan's central bank to keep raising rates. [30]

Analysts at TD Securities say that if it does not signal another rise, a dollar could again buy 157 to 160 yen. [14]

The Breakwave Tanker Shipping fund, which tracks what it costs to ship oil by tanker, is up about 3,600% this year to early September. [19]

That makes it the best performer among US funds that do not use borrowed money to boost their bets, according to Morningstar data. [19]

Rates on the Middle East tanker routes it follows are up close to 500% on a year earlier. [19]

One trade adviser said companies are paying prices that may be 300% higher, because it is the only ship available. [19]

Ship owners are making record profits, and everyone who needs a cargo moved pays for it. [19]

The same adviser said ships now on order will ease the shortage, but only in 18 to 36 months. [19]

Importers in Somalia usually bring goods from Asia through Gulf countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Saudi Arabia. [20]

With shipping disrupted in the Strait of Hormuz and at Bab el-Mandeb, the strait at the south end of the Red Sea, Mogadishu's seaport has worked with exporters on other routes. [20]

It brought in a ship carrying sugar directly from Sri Lanka for the first time, its director, Mohamed Ali Nur, said. [20]

Somalia depends on the sea for many everyday goods, so longer journeys can mean higher transport costs and slower deliveries to shops. [20]

Fighting in Yemen, across the water, has forced more than 85,000 people from their homes since the start of September, the International Organization for Migration said. [20]

Baker Hughes, a US company that makes equipment for the oil and gas industry, said it sees no slowdown in energy projects despite higher interest rates. [21]

Its chief executive said high prices lead to investment today, which brings new supply tomorrow. [21]

The company has just over $37 billion of orders it has yet to deliver, including work for gas pipelines and plants, power for data centres, and liquefied gas. [21]

The war has put gas from Qatar, one of the world's biggest exporters, at risk because ships cannot pass the Strait of Hormuz freely. [21]

Baker Hughes expects the world to need capacity for 900 million tonnes a year of liquefied gas, gas cooled into a liquid so it can travel by ship, by 2035. [21]

Anthropic, the company that makes the Claude AI system, has chosen the Nasdaq stock exchange for its planned share sale, which could come as soon as October. [23]

Some estimates put its value at $2 trillion, though that figure is not final. [23]

It told some shareholders it will make an operating profit for a second quarter in a row, the Financial Times reported. [22]

OpenAI, which makes ChatGPT, will not list its shares this year, its chief Sam Altman said. [18]

Anthropic's chief, Dario Amodei, wrote at the weekend that AI companies should slow how fast their best models improve, because of safety risks. [18]

An analyst at Gartner, a research firm, said strict safety rules could favour Anthropic and OpenAI if smaller rivals cannot afford them. [22]

DFO Management, the firm that invests Dell Technologies chief Michael Dell's money, is close to buying Baldwin Insurance Group, the Financial Times reported. [24]

Baldwin, based in Tampa, Florida, gives businesses and people advice on risk and insurance, and is valued at about $4.14 billion. [24]

The deal would take it off the stock market at a price above its current value, the report said. [24] Reuters could not confirm the report. [24]

If it goes ahead, Baldwin's shareholders are paid out and the company leaves the stock market.

Baldwin reported that its revenue grew 30% to $492.9 million in the second quarter of 2025. [24]

GE HealthCare, a US maker of hospital scanners, is in talks to buy Sofie Biosciences for about $1 billion, the Financial Times reported. [25]

Sofie, based in Dulles, Virginia, makes radioactive chemicals that help cancer show up on scans. [25]

It is developing ones for PET scans to find some cancers of the stomach, the gullet and the pancreas. [25]

A deal could be announced as soon as next week, the report said. [25]

Sofie would add to GE HealthCare's business that supplies the chemicals used in scans. [25] Reuters could not confirm the report, and neither company could be reached for comment. [25]

S&P Dow Jones Indices, which runs Canada's main share index, said on Friday it will let some foreign companies listed in Toronto join it. [26]

Until now only companies based or incorporated in Canada could qualify. [26] Firms from elsewhere can now qualify if they have a material and substantive connection to Canada. [26]

The change takes effect on 21 December 2026, after a consultation that began in July. [26]

Investors said it would likely keep Anglo Teck, a big copper producer being formed in a proposed merger, in the index. [26]

Anglo Teck is to be headquartered in Vancouver but have its main share listing in London. [26]

German companies invested €5.6 billion more in China in the first half of 2026 than a year earlier, a rise of about a third. [27]

The figures come from a study by the German Economic Institute, based on data from Germany's central bank. [27]

Their investment in the United States fell by nearly two-thirds, to about €4.3 billion, amid US tariffs. [27] That put China ahead of the US as a place for German investment. [27]

The institute's Juergen Matthes said Chinese state subsidies and a cheap yuan make producing in China artificially cheap. [27]

He said the shift moves production and jobs away from Germany, and he wants the EU to put tariffs on Chinese imports to offset the subsidies. [27]

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham meets the heads of several big companies on Monday to talk about his plans for economic growth, his office said. [28]

They include the bosses of Britain's biggest energy companies. [28]

The meeting follows a report that he will wait until after a by-election next month to decide whether the Jackdaw gas field, which Shell backs, can start producing. [28]

A by-election is a vote to fill one seat in parliament.

His finance minister, John Healey, set out a brighter view of the economy last week, before a budget with hard choices on tax and spending. [28]

Burnham will also meet founders from finance technology, AI, clean energy and advanced manufacturing. [28]

Leaders of the BRICS group of emerging economies ended their summit in New Delhi on Sunday. [29]

China's President Xi Jinping proposed an AI cooperation zone, shared special economic zones and a services trade forum that China will host next year. [29]

The group began as Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, and now also includes Iran, Indonesia, Egypt, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates. [29]

On Saturday its leaders agreed a joint statement urging maximum restraint in the Middle East, backed by both Iran and the UAE. [29]

China chairs the group next year and wants to make it a working platform for development among poorer countries. [29]

Iran's president also met the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, the highest-level meeting between the two countries since the war began. [29]