Finance, in brief

Brent crude, the world's main oil price, rose 1.8% to $106.31 a barrel in early Asian trading on Monday. [1]

US crude rose 1.3% to $93.62. [1] On Friday both had fallen more than 2%, as the US and Iran held talks at the United Nations. [2]

The rise came after US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that he had rejected Iran's offer: "They made a proposal but I rejected it." [1][2]

Iran had offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US lifted its naval blockade, eased sanctions on Iranian oil and released Iranian assets. [9][2]

About a fifth of the world's oil passed through the strait before the war, which began with US and Israeli air strikes on 28 February. [2]

Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Iran will not back down from its conditions. [2] He says Iran is still waiting for a formal US answer through the go-betweens, Qatar and Pakistan. [9][3]

On US television on Sunday, Araghchi said Iran is ready both for talks and for war. [4] Mike Waltz, the US ambassador to the United Nations, called Iran's offer a cynical attempt. [4]

Trump told the news site Axios that he expects talks to resume this week. [6][7]

The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump has told aides he expects US strikes on Iran to resume after November's midterm elections. [1]

Mediators are now pressing Iran to offer something on its nuclear programme, the issue Trump cares about most, the Wall Street Journal reports. [5]

Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Sunday they had captured an American underwater drone in the strait. [2] The US military did not immediately comment. [2]

Futures on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, two big US share indexes, were down 0.1% as trading began. [8]

Why it matters. Watch whether Qatar and Pakistan carry a formal US answer to Iran this week, and whether Iran adds anything on its nuclear programme, as mediators are asking. [9][5]

Northern Star, Australia's biggest gold miner, said on Monday it had turned down Gold Fields, a South African miner. [14] Gold Fields offered 0.3125 of its own shares plus 7.25 Australian dollars in cash for each Northern Star share. [13] That came to about A$27 a share, or A$38.7 billion ($27.1 billion), 22% above what Northern Star's shares were worth on 11 September. [13][14] Chairman Michael Chaney said the price fell well short of the company's value. [13] Northern Star has cut its output forecasts several times, and Elliott, a big investor, has pushed it to consider a sale. [15][13]

Why it matters. Northern Star told Gold Fields on Friday that it would not discuss the offer further, so Gold Fields must raise it or walk away. [13] Gold Fields has been buying in Australia, including Gold Road Resources for $2.4 billion. [15]

Foreign investors pulled an estimated $192 billion out of Asian share markets in September up to the 25th. [22] The old record for one month was $45 billion, in 2025. [22] That is the count of Manishi Raychaudhuri, a former BNP Paribas analyst, writing a column for Reuters. [22] He blames US 10-year borrowing rates of 4% to 5%, which pull money to the US. [22] Separately, foreign buyers put a record $426 billion into US shares and funds in the second quarter, chasing the AI boom. [23]

Why it matters. Currencies of countries that buy more from abroad than they sell, such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines, fell hardest, which makes imports dearer. [22] Inflation is 6.1% in the Philippines, and its central bank and Indonesia's have each raised rates three times this year. [22]

John Healey, Britain's finance minister, makes his first speech to the Labour Party conference in Liverpool on Monday. [16] He will back firms that build for the military, such as three floating docks for submarines on the Clyde in Scotland. [16] He must also fill a 4.7 billion pound gap in the defence plan. [16] His first budget is on 28 October, and he is skipping many conference events to work on it. [17] The OECD, an economic research group, has just raised its British growth forecast for this year to 1.1% and cut its inflation forecast to 3.1%. [19]

Why it matters. Energy costs from the Iran war and tight public money leave him little room. [16] Tax rises, spending cuts or both could be on the way, the AP reports. [18]

Forecasters expect euro-area prices in September to be 3.7% higher than a year earlier, the fastest rise in three years, when the figure comes out on Friday. [12] Markets expect up to four more quarter-point rate rises from the European Central Bank within a year. [11] In Japan, the Tankan, a big central-bank survey of companies, is expected on Thursday to show large manufacturers at their most hopeful since December 2017. [11][12] Markets expect more than four rate rises from Canada's central bank over the next year. [11]

Why it matters. A high euro-area figure would add to the case for a third European Central Bank rate rise this year. [12] That would make loans dearer in the countries that use the euro.

India's main share indexes ended lower for a seventh week in a row. [10] The Sensex, an index of 30 big Indian companies, hit its lowest in more than three months on Thursday, then rose 0.43% to 73,895.74 on Friday. [10] Analysts blame oil above $100 a barrel, rising borrowing rates abroad and steady selling by foreign investors. [10][24] Economists at ANZ, Citi, HSBC and Deutsche Bank expect the Reserve Bank of India to raise its main rate in October. [25]

Why it matters. India's central bank has already drained more than half of the spare cash in the banks, because that cash, dear oil and a weaker rupee all push prices up. [25] ANZ expects three rises in a row, taking the main rate to 6%. [25]

The US government's 10-year borrowing rate is near 5.17%, up about a point since January, so AI data-centre builders pay more to borrow. [26] JPMorgan estimated in June that $4.1 trillion of AI-related debt will be sold by 2030. [26] Shares of Oracle, which borrows heavily for AI, fell 7% last week. [26] Bloomberg had reported that it sent a legal notice to protect itself from higher costs at its New Mexico data centre. [26] It would let Oracle delay paying for the site if it is not running by 2028; Oracle says the project is on schedule. [26]

Why it matters. Riley Thompson of Mitsubishi HC Capital America told CNBC that lenders are getting choosier. [26] He said the market really wants to fund only about 20 of 50 smaller AI cloud companies. [26] Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft borrow more cheaply because of their strong credit ratings. [26]

Ingenia Communities, an Australian company, said on Monday it is weighing a third offer from Warburg Pincus, a private equity firm, meaning one that buys whole companies. [20][21] The new offer is A$5.25 a share, or about A$2.14 billion. [20] Ingenia's board turned down A$4.75 and then A$5.05, saying both were far too low. [20] Warburg still wants Ingenia to drop its planned $711 million purchase of Peet, a builder of new neighbourhoods. [20] Ingenia's shares rose as much as 7.1%, to their highest since late January. [20]

Why it matters. After two refusals, the offer is now 10.5% above the first one. [20] The board has still not said yes, and has made no recommendation to shareholders. [20]

Ukraine is asking its partners for another $27 billion this year for defence. [33] It says the war costs more as Ukraine and Russia trade long-range drone and missile attacks. [33] President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday that the EU and the IMF understand Ukraine needs the help. [33] Ukraine expects to need more than $52 billion of foreign financial help next year. [33] Its finance minister, Sergii Marchenko, said an IMF team comes in November to review Ukraine's loan, and a plan for next year's budget is needed by then. [33]

Why it matters. Zelenskiy says drones must be ordered in October and November, or Ukraine faces trouble at the start of next year. [33] Ukraine has also asked the EU to pay part of a loan early. [33]

Senegal's president, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, said he wants to finish reworking the country's debts quickly. [30] His first aim is a $2.2 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund. [30] Senegal plans to rework its foreign-currency debt but leave out debt in the regional CFA franc. [31] S&P Global Ratings said African banks hold only that local debt, and not much of it, so they face little risk. [31] Even a 70% cut to local debt would leave them above the capital rules, S&P estimated. [31]

Why it matters. Leaving local debt out suggests that lenders owed foreign currency would take the losses, S&P said. [31] Those lenders could get less money back, less interest, or later payments. [31]

The International Monetary Fund, which lends to countries in trouble, said on Thursday that its loan programmes should ask for fewer but deeper reforms. [28] Its review covered programmes from 2018 to 2024, years of trade war, the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. [28] The IMF still favours early budget cuts, because they go with programmes that work. [28] But it says cuts should go only as far as possible, with spending kept to protect the poorest. [28] Its board backed the changes. [28]

Why it matters. Critics such as Jubilee USA say past IMF terms cut health spending in some poor countries. [28] They also say countries keep falling back into debt. [28]

Isabel Schnabel, a member of the executive board of the European Central Bank, which sets interest rates for the euro, is set to leave in January. [29] She is going to a senior job at the IMF, Bloomberg reported on Thursday. [29] Schnabel would run the IMF's department for money and financial markets. [29] Her eight-year term at the European Central Bank would have ended next December. [29]

Why it matters. She leaves just as markets expect up to four more rate rises from the European Central Bank within a year. [11][29]

Companies in India's Tata Group must soon vote on whether Natarajan Chandrasekaran stays on the board of Tata Sons, the group's holding company. [27] Tata Sons' board voted on 17 September to keep him as executive chairman for five more years. [27] But Noel Tata, who chairs the Tata Trusts, opposes it, and the trusts own a majority of Tata Sons. [27] About 10 group companies, including Tata Motors and Tata Steel, own 12.86%. [27] The annual meeting was put off in August for lack of a quorum. [27]

Why it matters. The group companies fear any vote will be read as taking a side, and some may not vote at all. [27] Tata Sons may ask a company-law court to let the meeting go ahead without the trusts' nominee. [27]

Airtel Money, which runs mobile payments for customers in Africa and is 77% owned by Airtel Africa, has filed to list its shares in London. [19] Reports value it at more than 6 billion pounds. [19] That would make it the biggest new listing in Britain since Wise in 2021. [19] Britain has had only 11 new listings of more than 100 million pounds since the start of 2023. [19] Meanwhile Schroders and Beazley, two big London companies, leave the stock market in October after being bought. [19]

Why it matters. Britain's stock market is slowly shrinking because more companies leave than join, says Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell. [19] One big listing does not change that on its own, he says. [19]

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets expect Britain to bring back Help to Buy in the 28 October budget. [19] The scheme ran from 2011 to 2023. [19] It lent first-time buyers up to 20% of a new-build home's price, or 40% in London. [19] A government review found it raised new housing supply by 15% and added 25.1 billion pounds to the economy. [19] Shares in housebuilders such as Vistry and Crest Nicholson have been hit hard this year by the Iran war and dearer mortgages. [19]

Why it matters. The loan made it easier for buyers to find a deposit and pass a lender's checks. [19] RBC says a return would be the biggest boost the housebuilders could get. [19]

US Vice President JD Vance, who leads the Trump administration's task force on fraud, said this month that it had found 250 billion dollars of fraud. [32] A New York Times check found some of the task force's figures overstated or vague. [32] Some rely on cases that began before Trump's second term. [32] The task force's own list claims more than 300 billion dollars found or stopped. [32] It gives details for only about 47 billion dollars of that. [32]

Why it matters. A senior Trump administration official said the task force does not list each case, to avoid harming live investigations. [32] So nobody outside can check the total. [32]

India has raised the part of monthly pay on which retirement saving is compulsory, from 15,000 rupees to 25,000 rupees, from 17 September. [34] The change is expected to bring about 10 million more workers into the Employees' Provident Fund, the national savings scheme for workers. [34] It follows minimum wages above 15,000 rupees in seven states and territories, including Delhi and Maharashtra. [34] Employers must also pay more into workers' pensions. [34]

Why it matters. A worker earning 25,000 rupees a month now puts in 3,000 rupees instead of 1,800, taken from the worker's pay. [34] The employer's payment into the worker's pension rises to 2,083 rupees from 1,250. [34]

Romania has raised $604 million since 2025 by offering blood donors government bonds that pay more interest than usual. [35] The scheme also helps with the country's blood shortages. [35] S&P Global Ratings may update Romania's credit rating on Friday. [12] After months of political trouble, Romania sits on the lowest investment grade, and is in danger of a cut to junk, the grade for riskier borrowers. [12]

Why it matters. Governments with big deficits are working harder to borrow from their own citizens, using rewards, marketing and tax breaks. [35]