Finance, in brief

Minutes of the US central bank's 15-16 September meeting came out on Wednesday. [1] They show most officials expect to raise interest rates again before the end of the year. [2]

At that meeting the bank, the Federal Reserve, raised its main rate by a quarter of a point, to between 3.75% and 4%. [2] It was its first rise since July 2023, and every voter backed it. [3][1]

Of the 18 officials who sent in forecasts, 16 expected at least one more rise this year. [1] The chair, Kevin Warsh, did not send one. [4]

Prices are still rising faster than the bank's 2% goal. [1] Its preferred measure was up 3.4% in the year to August, or 3% leaving out food and energy. [1]

Many officials worried that the longer energy stays dear because of the Iran war, the more those costs spread into other prices. [4] A couple also named demand from the AI building boom. [4]

Several officials said rates were 'not restrictive or only mildly restrictive', meaning they were barely slowing the economy yet. [4] Many pointed to high share prices and easy borrowing for companies. [2]

The minutes set no date for the next rise. [1] Since the meeting John Williams, head of the US central bank's New York branch, said there is 'no need for urgency'. [4] Vice chair Philip Jefferson asked for more time and data. [4]

Traders put the chance of a rise at the 28 October meeting at 17.2%, down from 37.6% a week earlier, by the CME exchange's count. [3]

Traders still expect a rise by December. On Wednesday morning the CME count put that at 84.5%, and Kalshi, a betting site, put a rise by the end of the year at 76%. [5][6]

On Wednesday the 10-year US government borrowing rate reached 5.365%, its highest since April 2002. [7] The 30-year rate hit 5.732%, its highest since May 2002. [7]

Part of that rise is lenders asking more for the risk of a long loan. A New York Fed estimate of that extra return is at a 12-year high, 0.96 points. [8]

The US Treasury then sold $39bn of 10-year bonds at 5.3%, the highest rate at such a sale since 2000. [9] Demand was strong: a group of buyers that includes foreign central banks took 80.3%, and the rate eased. [9]

The average 30-year fixed US home loan rose to 7.49%, its highest since November 2023, the Mortgage Bankers Association said. [10] Applications for home loans have fallen nearly 50% since January. [10]

Households in a New York Fed survey expect prices to rise 3.9% over the next year, the most since May 2023. [11] More of them said they are worse off than a year ago. [12]

Goldman Sachs, a big US investment bank, expects one more rise this year. [13] If share prices stay flat through 2027, it says, people who feel less rich will spend less, and growth in US consumer spending will be just under half a point lower. [13]

Why it matters. The next test is the 28 October decision: traders see a rise then as unlikely, while the minutes point to one by the 9 December meeting. [3][1]

Kristalina Georgieva, head of the International Monetary Fund, which lends to countries in trouble, spoke in Singapore on Wednesday. [25] She said government debt worldwide is near its highest since the second world war and on course to reach 100% of world output. [19] For 17 years interest rates stayed below growth rates, which gave governments 'a relatively easy ride', she said. [25] Higher rates have ended that, so debts will not fall without spending cuts or tax rises. [25] She called the energy shock from the Iran war 'large but contained' so far. [26]

Why it matters. She spoke a week before the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok. [19] It lands on every government now paying more to borrow, from the US to France and Britain. [14]

Samsung Electronics, the world's biggest maker of memory chips, expects an operating profit of 107.4 trillion won, about $80bn, for July to September. [22] Operating profit is what its business earns before interest and tax. [22] That is nearly nine times last year's figure, and its fourth record quarter in a row. [27] Reuters says no technology company has passed 100 trillion won in a quarter before. [22] Memory prices have soared because AI data centres need more chips than factories can make. [22]

Why it matters. Samsung and Micron, a US rival, expect the shortage to last into 2028. [22] Dearer memory also raises costs for Samsung's own phones and for other gadget makers. [22]

Emmanuel Moulin, head of the Bank of France, the country's central bank, said on Wednesday that France does not need help from the European Central Bank for now. [28] France's 10-year borrowing rate rose 0.18 points that morning, to 4.93%. [14] Lenders now want about 1.4 points more to lend to France than to Germany, down from nearly 1.6 last week. [29] Moulin blamed France's bigger deficit and doubt over whether its budget will pass. [28] France's government aims to cut the deficit from 5.4% of output to 5% next year. [28]

Why it matters. Marine Le Pen, a far-right leader, wants the European Central Bank to step in and push French rates down. [28] Teachers and students have protested against wage freezes and school cuts in the budget. [14]

Brent crude, the main world oil price, rose 1.36% to $101.54 a barrel on Thursday. [30] NBC News reported that President Trump's team has discussed restarting large US strikes on Iran in the coming weeks, possibly before the midterm elections. [31] Trump said late on Wednesday that a deal 'isn't really something that I want to do'. [31] Two Houthi attacks on airports at Abha and Riyadh in Saudi Arabia killed three people on Wednesday, Saudi officials said. [32]

Why it matters. Trump's approval rating is at a record low, with petrol and diesel prices high. [31] Dear energy is the main reason US central bank officials fear prices will keep rising. [4]

Last Friday the G7, a club of rich countries, promised to release 100 million barrels of oil and diesel after US officials threatened to ban US diesel exports. [33] On Wednesday France and Germany said their share comes from stocks already pledged in March, not new barrels. [34] The International Energy Agency, which coordinates rich countries' emergency stocks, backed releasing that March pledge faster, diesel first. [35] Its members still hold about 1.1 billion barrels. [35]

Why it matters. Diesel costs more than $6 a gallon in the US and a record 2.24 euros a litre in Europe. [35] Mike Wirth, head of the US oil company Chevron, called an export ban 'unwise' and said it could make supplies worse. [36]

Maros Sefcovic, the EU's trade chief, meets China's commerce minister, Wang Wentao, in Beijing on Thursday and Friday. [37] The EU buys more than 1 billion euros a day more from China than it sells there. [37] EU imports of plug-in hybrid cars rose 86% in the year to September while their prices fell 20%, and more than half came from China. [37] China refused an EU request to limit those car exports itself, the Financial Times reported. [38] The European Parliament voted 454 to 86 for a tougher line on China. [39]

Why it matters. EU leaders meet on 15-16 October and want results to point to. [37] The Commission wants China to cap some exports, and it is unclear which ones China might accept. [37]

Porsche, the German sports-car maker controlled by Volkswagen, set out its turnaround plan to investors on Wednesday. [40] Its profit margin fell to 1.1% last year, from 18% in 2023, as sales in China plunged and US tariffs bit. [41] It now wants to make a profit on fewer than 200,000 cars a year; it delivered 279,449 last year. [42] It plans to raise the average price of its top models by about 20%, to 330,000 euros, copying Ferrari. [43] About 9,000 jobs will go. [42][44]

Why it matters. The plan ends Porsche's push towards electric cars, a U-turn that cost it and Volkswagen nearly 7 billion euros. [40] Jobs are already being lost across German carmaking as cheaper Chinese rivals grow. [42]

Shell, Europe's biggest oil and gas company, expects its refineries to make $42 on each barrel of fuel from July to September. [16] That compares with $24 in the spring and an old record of about $28, set early in the Russia-Ukraine war. [16] War damage to refineries in the Middle East and Russia has pushed fuel prices up faster than crude oil. [16] Diesel now sells for more than $100 a barrel above crude, for the first time. [16]

Why it matters. Refiners in Europe and the US earn most from that gap. [16] Drivers and lorry firms pay that gap at the pump, where prices have hit records. [16]

Trafigura, a big commodity trading firm, has hired the supertanker Alexandros to carry oil from the US Gulf Coast to China for $76m, CNBC reported. [17] Before the war the same trip cost $7m to $10m. [17] Gulf producers now carry oil across the Strait of Hormuz in one ship and load it onto another, which ties up far more tankers. [17] Vitol, the biggest independent oil trader, says the world's tanker fleet is fully in use. [45]

Why it matters. The charter adds about $38 to the cost of each of its 2 million barrels. [17] Vitol says the war has opened 'huge' chances to profit from price gaps between regions. [45]

SpaceX, Elon Musk's rocket and Starlink satellite company, is in talks with Apollo, an investment firm, and several banks to borrow for $40bn of Nvidia chips. [23] The loans would likely use the chips themselves as security, a person familiar with the talks told CNBC. [23] SpaceX listed its shares in June and raised $25bn in bonds two weeks later. [23] Measured against its profits, it carries five times as much debt as Alphabet, Google's owner. [46]

Why it matters. Lenders are assuming the chips keep their value for about seven years. [23] Since June, the bonds of AI-linked companies have fallen in price, so new borrowing like this costs them more. [23]

Temasek, the investment company owned by Singapore's government, said a fall in AI shares is the biggest risk to markets. [47] Its investment chief, Rohit Sipahimalani, said AI profits are holding US shares near records even as borrowing costs surge. [47] Roughly half the companies in the Russell 3000, a broad US share index, are at least 20% below their June highs, he said. [47] Analysts expect profits at the 500 biggest US companies to rise nearly 30% on a year earlier. [48]

Why it matters. A small group of AI winners is carrying the whole market. [47] Sipahimalani said tighter safety rules, or customers not earning back what they spend on AI, could start a fall. [47]

Iraq has set its official exchange rate at 1,500 dinars to the US dollar, down from 1,320, its second big devaluation in six years. [20] More than 90% of its budget comes from oil sold in dollars, nearly all of it shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. [20] The war has delayed those sales and forced discounts, so Iraq's government ran short of dinars. [20] It has delayed salaries in several provinces and payments to wheat farmers. [20] Each oil dollar now buys about 13% more dinars. [20]

Why it matters. That helps Iraq's government pay nearly eight million workers, contractors, farmers and pensioners. [20] Iraqis will pay more for imported food, medicine and cars. [20]

IMF staff and Pakistan's government reached a deal on Thursday that would release about $1.2bn, once the IMF's board approves it. [21] The money comes from a $7bn loan programme and a smaller $1.4bn resilience fund, and would bring payments so far to about $5.7bn. [21] Pakistan's inflation eased to about 10.3% in September after peaking in May, the IMF said. [49] It expects growth of 3.6% this year, held back by dearer energy. [49]

Why it matters. Pakistan relies on Gulf energy and needs outside money to repay its debts. [49] On Wednesday it raised petrol to 396.65 rupees a litre, and shops must already close by 9pm to save fuel. [50]

Unions and business groups want South Africa's government to spend about $600m to cut fuel prices, after petrol passed 30 rand a litre for the first time. [18] Cosatu, the biggest union federation, says workers spend nearly a third of their wages on transport. [18] South Africa's finance minister, Enoch Godongwana, presents a three-year budget plan later this month. [18] The rand fell 1% against the dollar on Wednesday, and the rate on its main government bond, due in 2035, rose to 8.85%. [51]

Why it matters. South Africa's central bank has raised rates twice this year, which squeezes the same households again. [18] Relief now would test the South African government's name for keeping its budget in order. [18]

Wittington Investments, the company of Canada's Weston family, which controls the Loblaws grocery chain, is buying Boots for $8.9bn, or 6.74bn pounds. [52] Boots is a British chemist and beauty chain with 1,800 shops and 50,000 staff. [52] Sycamore Partners, a US private equity firm, and Stefano Pessina, Boots' long-time backer, are selling. [52] In 2022 Walgreens tried to sell Boots for up to 10bn pounds, and buyers could not raise the money. [52]

Why it matters. The deal still needs approval from regulators and should close early in 2027. [52] Galen Weston, who is likely to chair Boots, said the family plans further investment in Boots. [52]

The average UK home cost 298,441 pounds in September, about the same as a month and a year earlier, by the Halifax index from Lloyds Banking Group. [15] Economists had expected a small rise. [15] Prices fell 0.3% in August, the first drop in three years. [15] Banks have raised home-loan rates because of the global bond sell-off, though the Bank of England has not changed its own rate since December. [15]

Why it matters. Rising rates hit people whose fixed-rate deals are ending, and buyers who need a loan. [15] Lloyds says new inquiries from buyers are at their highest since February. [15]

The Africa Credit Rating Agency, AfCRA, opened in Mauritius on Wednesday, backed by the African Union after nearly ten years of talks. [53] It will rate governments, cities and companies, alongside the three big US agencies, Fitch, Moody's and S&P. [54] Those three hold 95% of the world's ratings business, and 23 African countries have no rating from them at all. [54] In 2024 Africa paid about $9 in interest for every $100 it borrowed abroad, against $4.70 for emerging Asia. [53]

Why it matters. A low rating makes lenders charge more, and no rating can shut a country out of bond markets. [54] The agency has not yet named its owners or its chief executive. [54]

A committee of the US House of Representatives that studies China said Webull, a share-trading app with 28 million users, is tied 'in structural ways' to China's government. [55] It pointed to Webull's owners, engineers, technology and data links. [55] The committee said the risk grew after Webull began holding customers' cash in October 2025. [55] Webull, based in Florida, said the report contains 'significant inaccuracies'. [55] Its shares fell 18% on Wednesday morning. [55]

Why it matters. Chinese law can force companies to cooperate with China's government, including by handing over data, and the committee says Webull's software depends on systems under those laws. [55]

The Federal Trade Commission, the US competition watchdog, and the US Department of Agriculture said on Wednesday they will investigate makers and dealers of farm machinery. [56] They want to know whether the companies use their market power to squeeze farmers. [56] Shares in Deere fell 5%, CNH Industrial 5.7% and AGCO 5.9%. [56] The agencies are asking farmers and mechanics to describe dealer contracts, hidden charges and retaliation. [56]

Why it matters. It follows a settlement that gave US farmers the right to repair their own Deere equipment. [56]

Japan's Fair Trade Commission, its competition regulator, searched the offices of Asahi, Kirin, Sapporo and Suntory this week. [57] The four control more than 90% of Japan's beer market. [57] Officials suspect their sales managers met in secret for years to agree when, and by how much, to raise prices. [57] The inquiry covers price rises in October 2022 and April 2025, which the firms blamed on raw materials, energy and transport. [58] Shares in Asahi, Kirin and Sapporo fell. [58]

Why it matters. If the suspicions are proved, drinkers in Japan paid more than they should have for years. [57]

The Court of Appeal in London quashed the convictions of five former Barclays traders on Wednesday. [59] They were jailed between 2016 and 2019 for rigging Euribor or Libor, benchmark interest rates that fed into ordinary people's mortgages, savings and pensions. [59] The UK Supreme Court ruled last year that the juries in two similar trials were given unfair instructions. [59] The Serious Fraud Office, which brought the charges, did not oppose the appeals. [59]

Why it matters. Nine bankers were convicted in these cases, and seven of those convictions have now been overturned. [59]

Pennon, which owns South West Water and supplies water to about 3.5 million customers in south-west England, will raise 550m pounds from its shareholders. [60] The money is part of a 1bn-pound plan to fix its pipes and service. [60] It will also cut its dividend, the payout to shareholders, by about 30%. [60] Last month a judge fined South West Water a record 7.9m pounds for hundreds of sewage spills. [60] Pennon's shares fell as much as 22%. [60]

Why it matters. The fine is paid by shareholders, not through customers' bills. [60]