Finance, in brief

MSCI, a US company whose lists of shares are copied by big investment funds around the world, said on Thursday that Indonesia's stock market no longer deserves its 'emerging market' label. [2]

It proposed moving Indonesia to 'standalone' status, outside both of its lists for developing countries' markets. [2] Argentina, Lebanon and Palestine are in that group now, and no Asian market is. [2]

MSCI said it still suspects traders of working together to push share prices, and sees no evidence that anyone has been properly punished. [2]

On Friday the Jakarta Composite, Indonesia's main share index, fell more than 11%, its steepest one-day fall since January 1998. [3][4]

The index had already lost about 32% this year, the worst of any country's main index. [2] Foreign investors had sold a net $4.7 billion of Indonesian shares. [3]

Funds that simply copy MSCI's lists would have to sell their Indonesian shares if the change goes ahead, and managers judged against those lists may sell too. [2]

Radhika Rao, an economist at DBS Bank, said this could hurt more than a one-step demotion, because funds bound by their rules would also have to cut. [1]

Indonesia has promised to publish every owner of more than 1% of a company, and set out a path to a rule that at least 15% of each company's shares are free to trade. [2]

Investors say the gap is punishment, not rules: Angus Mackintosh of Alethia Capital said Indonesia must fine and sanction those behind concerted share manipulation. [1]

Jeffrey Hendrik, head of the Indonesia Stock Exchange, said it had already made the market more open, and asked MSCI to explain its decision. [3]

The same day MSCI froze some index changes for Turkey's shares, over suspected coordinated trading in small companies held by Turkish funds. [5] It said it may consult on moving Turkey out of its emerging list too if there is not enough progress by June 2027. [5]

MSCI will take comments on Indonesia until 30 April 2027 and decide by 30 June. [2]

Why it matters. Watch whether Indonesian authorities fine or charge anyone over share-price pushing before the April 2027 deadline, because MSCI says it will go ahead unless it sees clear proof of change. [2]

US producer prices, what businesses charge each other before goods reach shops, rose 1.3% in September, the US Labor Department said on Thursday. [7] That was more than twice the 0.6% economists expected, and the biggest monthly rise since March 2022. [6] Over a year they were up 6.3%, led by a 20% jump in petrol prices. [8] Without food, energy and trade services, prices still rose 0.5%, so the rise is wider than fuel. [8]

Why it matters. Economists use these figures to estimate the US central bank's favourite inflation measure, now expected to rise 0.32% for September. [8] Futures traders put a 91% chance on at least one more US rate rise by December. [8]

US retail sales rose 0.8% in September, double the 0.4% economists expected, government data showed on Thursday. [6] Much of the rise was petrol: without cars and petrol stations, sales grew only 0.25%, down from about 1.1% in August. [6] The same week 199,000 people made new claims for unemployment benefits, close to historic lows. [9] Employers are keeping workers but hiring little, which AP calls a low-hire, low-fire job market. [9]

Why it matters. Axios said the week's data shows little sign that price pressures are fading on their own. [10] Spending on everything except fuel is slowing, a sign that dear petrol is squeezing other purchases. [6]

Kevin Warsh, who chairs the US central bank, spoke on Friday at the yearly meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok, Thailand. [11] He would not say whether the bank will raise rates again at its 27-28 October meeting, saying he does not prejudge meetings. [11] The bank raised its rate to 3.75%-4% in September, its first rise since 2023. [11] Goldman Sachs economists expect a pause in October and a final rise in December. [11]

Why it matters. A blackout on comments by the bank's officials starts after Friday, so the week's hot price data is the last big clue markets get before the vote. [11] Traders put the chance of no change in October at 72.3%. [11]

The rate on ten-year US government bonds fell about 10 basis points to 5.09% on Thursday, its biggest daily drop in more than a year. [14] One basis point is 0.01 percentage points. [12] Investors bought government bonds for safety as AI and chip shares fell, even though price data that day was hot. [13] Gold rose as much as 1.4%, back above $4,150 an ounce. [17] Gold pays no interest, so it gains when bond rates fall. [17]

Why it matters. US mortgage rates follow the ten-year rate. [33] One day's fall leaves most of the rise since late February in place, when the ten-year rate climbed 1.23 percentage points. [33]

The dollar fell 0.3% against other big currencies on Thursday, its biggest drop since 3 September, and about 1% against the Swiss franc. [15] Traders said money leaving AI shares went into US government bonds, which lowered US rates and made the dollar less attractive to hold. [15] The euro rose from a 17-month low to about $1.12. [16] Over the five weeks before, it had lost more than 3% on worries about France's debts and a winter energy squeeze. [16]

Why it matters. Brent Donnelly of Spectra Markets, a trading adviser, said the US economy now leans so hard on AI spending that trouble there weighs on the dollar. [15] Sterling also rose this week, helped by news that Britain's economy grew in August. [16]

Australia lost jobs in September and its unemployment rate rose, figures showed on Thursday. [44] Traders cut their bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia, the country's central bank, will raise rates again. [44] The Australian dollar fell as much as 1.1% to 68.94 US cents, its lowest since early July. [44] Its rate rises this year add up to one percentage point, the latest in September. [44]

Why it matters. Tim Baker of Deutsche Bank said the rise in unemployment suggests the bank may have raised rates enough and is now slowing the economy. [44] A CIBC strategist said the data points to no change at the November meeting. [44]

TSMC, the Taiwanese company that makes most of the world's most advanced chips, reported record profit for a sixth quarter in a row on Thursday. [18] It expects revenue in October to December to be 58% higher than a year earlier. [18] Nvidia, AMD, Apple, Google and others compete for space on its factory lines, and its North American head gets at least 10 calls a day about it. [18] Its shares still slipped 0.4% on Friday. [3]

Why it matters. US tech giants plan well over $700 billion of spending on buildings and equipment this year. [18] A Mizuho analyst said TSMC's limited room to make more chips could hold back the AI firms' plans. [18]

The biggest chip companies lost more than $1 trillion of stock-market value this week. [19] SK Hynix fell 26% in five days and Samsung 22%, after CXMT, China's leading memory-chip maker, announced a denser memory design. [20] Some analysts doubt CXMT can make it in volume, and Ben Barringer of Quilter Cheviot asked what share of its chips would actually work. [20] On Friday South Korea's main index rose 3.3%, after a fall of almost 8% on Thursday. [3]

Why it matters. SK Hynix and Samsung make up more than half of the value of South Korea's main index, so a chip sell-off moves the whole market. [19] A Korean newspaper column quoted industry figures warning of a flood of new memory supply by 2029. [20]

Insuring $1 million of CoreWeave's bonds against default for five years now costs about $100,000 a year, against under $40,000 a year ago. [21] CoreWeave rents out computers for AI and has taken on more than $51 billion of debt and obligations. [22] A buyer of one of its bonds now earns 15.78% a year. [22] Insurance on Oracle, a big US software and cloud company, rose 12% in a week, to $28,000 a year per $1 million. [21]

Why it matters. The cost is rising most for the firms that borrowed most to build AI, which means lenders think a default there is more likely. [21] The head of DBS, Singapore's biggest bank, said that after chips and power, money may be the next thing AI runs short of. [23]

Some investors in Anthropic, the AI company that makes Claude, discussed valuing it at about $1.5 trillion for its share sale in November, four people told Reuters. [24] They had expected about $2 trillion. [24] Anthropic told them its revenue rose 45% to $16.8 billion in July to September, and that it was profitable by its own adjusted count. [24] Some were disappointed because revenue had more than doubled the quarter before. [24]

Why it matters. Investors see the share sale as a test for the whole AI market, ahead of a possible OpenAI listing next year. [24] SB Energy, a data-centre company, has already delayed its own listing. [24]

Private-equity funds, which buy whole companies with investors' money, are making those companies borrow more so the funds can pay cash back to their investors. [25] The usual ways out, selling the company or listing it on a stock market, have been scarce. [25] Moody's, a credit-rating agency, estimates such firms in Europe, the Middle East and Africa could borrow another EUR41bn before reaching debt levels that usually lead to a downgrade. [25]

Why it matters. Funds now hold companies longer than the usual five or six years. [25] The extra debt can leave those companies less able to invest or survive a downturn. [25]

CCC Intelligent Solutions, which makes claims software for insurers, agreed on Thursday to be bought for $6.1 billion by a group led by GTCR and including Elliott, two private investment firms. [26] Shareholders get $7.75 a share in cash, 44% above the price before Reuters reported in July that a sale was being explored. [26] Its shares had fallen on slowing growth and fewer insurance claims. [26] The deal should close in early 2027. [26]

Why it matters. CCC was owned by another buyout firm, Advent, until 2025, so it goes back into private hands a year after leaving them. [26]

BNY, the world's biggest custodian bank, which holds and looks after investments for other firms, said revenue rose 12% to $5.7 billion in July to September. [27] Profit per share rose 24% to $2.37, above the $2.27 analysts expected. [27] It was the bank's 15th quarter in a row of revenue growth, and it raised its forecast for the year. [27] Its shares rose more than 3% on Thursday. [27]

Why it matters. Both the fees it charges and the interest it earns beat forecasts, in a week of heavy selling in AI shares. [27]

The International Energy Agency, which coordinates emergency oil stocks for its member countries, said on Thursday that they will release more than the 400 million barrels agreed in March. [28] Members promised to speed up the last 100 million barrels or so, including over 20 million barrels of diesel. [28] Brent crude, the main world oil price, traded around $105 a barrel this week. [29]

Why it matters. US diesel is near a record, at about $6.29 a gallon, AAA data shows. [29] Diesel fuels ships and other transport, so a faster diesel release aims at the fuel whose price is hurting most. [29]

Hiring a supertanker in the Gulf now costs over $200,000 a day, against about $50,000 in late 2025, by Fearnpulse's count. [29] A trip from the Gulf to East Asia costs over $30 a barrel, up from under $2 this year, BCA Research estimates. [29] A supertanker was hired from the US Gulf Coast to China last week for $76 million, about $38 for each barrel it carries, CNBC's Brian Sullivan reported. [30] About 20 oil tankers were lost in two weeks, one count says. [29]

Why it matters. A buyer pays for the oil and for the trip, so fuel can stay dear even when the oil price on screen falls. [30] Shipowners' shares have risen with the rates. [30]

Vitol, one of the world's biggest oil traders, said heavy fuel oil for ships is still scarce. [31] Exports of it through Hormuz, the Gulf's sea exit, are down at least 800,000 tonnes a month from February, its Asia head Kieran Gallagher said. [31] Attacks on Russian refineries cut another 1 million tonnes a month. [31] The extra price paid for that fuel in Asia was near $50 a tonne this week, against $5.10 in February. [31]

Why it matters. Producers are paying higher freight and risk charges to keep fuel moving, because their governments' budgets depend on the oil money, Gallagher said. [31]

David Zervos, a new adviser to the US Treasury Secretary, said on Thursday that the IMF should check its own forecasting record before criticising US policy. [32] The IMF's head, Kristalina Georgieva, had said strong growth will not be enough to put US debt on a safe path. [32] US government debt has passed $40 trillion, and this year's deficit is about $2 trillion. [32][33] Zervos listed IMF forecasts that went wrong, from 2008 to Argentina. [32]

Why it matters. Long-term rates above 5% and a $2 trillion deficit threaten to make the debt problem worse, CNBC's analysis says. [33] The IMF, which lends to countries in trouble, has given France a similar warning. [32]

Emmanuel Moulin, governor of the Bank of France, said on Thursday that France can cut its budget deficit to 3% of its economy by 2029. [34] It was 5.1% last year, and the EU has put France under its procedure for countries that overspend. [34] He said higher interest costs add about EUR10bn a year to the task. [34] He blamed rising French borrowing costs on doubts that a budget will pass, not on the public finances. [34]

Why it matters. Worries about France's debts helped push the euro to a 17-month low this month. [16] Moulin said passing a budget that keeps the deficit at 5% would reassure lenders. [34]

John Healey, the UK's chancellor, its finance minister, plans to raise taxes on banks in his 28 October budget, the Guardian reported and bank bosses told the BBC. [35][36] One option is to raise the extra tax on bank profits back to 8% from 3%, which could bring in about GBP2bn a year. [36] The four biggest UK banks made about GBP15bn of profit in the first half of this year. [36] Lloyds fell about 1.9% and NatWest 1.6% early on Friday. [35]

Why it matters. Higher interest rates have widened the gap between what banks charge borrowers and pay savers, and former banker Philip Augar said that leaves room for a moderate rise. [36] UK Finance, the banks' trade body, warned that more tax would discourage investment and jobs. [36]

The UK economy grew 0.1% in August, when analysts had expected a small fall, the Office for National Statistics said on Thursday. [37] Over the three months to August it grew 0.7%, with computer programming the biggest help. [37] Factories and energy grew in August, services were flat and building shrank. [37] The statistics office also raised its figure for June's growth to 0.4%. [37]

Why it matters. Healey called it a sign of resilience two weeks before his budget. [37] Capital Economics' Paul Dales said the economy is coping with dearer energy and borrowing better than expected. [37]

Thames Water, the UK's biggest water company, asked its lenders on Thursday for another GBP2.4bn. [38] It said it would otherwise run out of cash at the end of 2026 or early in 2027. [38] Its debts are about GBP20bn, and it has used GBP2.65bn of a GBP3bn loan its lenders gave last year. [38] The lenders, led by US funds such as Elliott and Silver Point, propose writing off GBP9.6bn of loans in a rescue. [38]

Why it matters. Thames serves 16 million people in London and the Thames valley. [38] The rescue needs Ofwat, the water regulator, to let Thames pay penalties in advance under special rules, which the UK government has found hard to accept. [38]

Lisa Nandy, the UK culture secretary, said on Thursday she is minded to intervene in Sky's GBP1.6bn purchase of ITV's channels and streaming service. [39] Sky is owned by Comcast, a US media giant, and the deal would create the UK's biggest commercial broadcaster. [39] The companies have five days to respond. [39] If she steps in, Ofcom, the media regulator, and the Competition and Markets Authority will investigate. [39]

Why it matters. Few in the TV industry expect the deal to be blocked, as broadcasters merge to compete with Netflix and YouTube. [39]

US lawmakers from both parties, led by Senator Elizabeth Warren and Representative Robert Garcia, introduced a bill on Thursday called the Epstein Wall Street Records Act. [40] It would make regulators such as the US central bank and the Securities and Exchange Commission investigate finance firms and bosses linked to Jeffrey Epstein, the late sex offender. [40] Those found at fault could be fined or banned from US finance. [40] Warren also criticised Barclays over how it checked its former boss Jes Staley. [40]

Why it matters. Regulators would also have to publish their records on Epstein and his associates and pass any possible crimes to the US Justice Department. [40]

UniCredit, an Italian bank, said on Thursday that the European Central Bank has allowed it to own more than 30% of Commerzbank, a big German bank, with no upper limit. [41] It expects to hold about 50% of the votes by the end of the year and take control. [41] Commerzbank is valued at EUR35bn. [41] The German government, which still owns about 12% of it, has resisted the takeover. [41]

Why it matters. UniCredit says joining Europe's split-up banks will help them compete with bigger US rivals. [41] Germany's finance minister has asked for guarantees that Commerzbank keeps lending to German firms. [41]

A commission set up by Norway's government proposed on Thursday that the country's EUR2 trillion wealth fund, the world's largest, be allowed to buy shares in some makers of nuclear weapons again. [42] The fund now excludes 14 such companies, including Airbus, BAE Systems, Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Safran. [42] The change would cover firms from nuclear-armed NATO allies of Norway. [42] Comments are open until 15 January, and parliament decides next spring. [42]

Why it matters. Finance minister Jens Stoltenberg, a former NATO head, called it a paradox that the fund cannot own firms crucial to Norway's security. [42] Some parties on the left oppose the change. [42]

SEB, a Swedish bank, agreed to pay $33 million to New York's financial regulator after a review of its checks against money laundering in its Baltic branches from 2015 to 2019. [43] The US Justice Department ended its own review without action. [43] SEB said this closes its US cases on the matter. [43] It will book the cost in its October to December quarter. [43]

Why it matters. SEB said the payment will have only a limited effect on its finances, and its cost target for the year is unchanged. [43]

Shares in Hybe, the South Korean company behind the band BTS, rose 10% on Friday. [45] iM Securities, a Korean broker, expects its revenue for July to September to more than double, to 1.5 trillion won, about $1.1 billion. [45] Concert sales should nearly triple, as about 3 million people went to its acts' shows. [45] For the first time, more than 70% of that audience was in Western countries. [45]

Why it matters. Hybe rose far more than South Korea's main index, which gained 2.9% the same day. [45]