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Day Lila

Friday, 25 September 2026

25 Sept · Food · In brief

Food · Friday, 25 September 2026

Food, in brief

17 stories · 20 sources

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What is moving · 1 of 4

Hot, dry weather

High ↑

Heat cost UK dairy farms 240 million litres of milk this summer. [1] Fonterra says El Nino could slow New Zealand's milk growth late in the coming season. [2] Researchers in Taiwan built models to predict when rain and cold will damage melon crops. [19]

What is moving · 2 of 4

Fuel costs on the farm

High ↑

US diesel has reached about $6.52 a gallon. [5] Many US farmers are losing money this harvest, with diesel leading the rise in costs. [6] Big producers have proposed or set higher shares of crop-based fuel in petrol and diesel since the Iran war lifted oil prices by nearly 40%. [15]

What is moving · 3 of 4

Shoppers counting every dollar

Building ↑

General Mills, the maker of Cheerios, cut its prices last year to win shoppers back. [10] Aldi, the discount grocer, cut prices on dozens of products this week. [11] McDonald's expects visits to fast-food restaurants to stay flat while prices stay high. [12]

What is moving · 4 of 4

Rules on unhealthy food

Building ↑

India's food regulator will warn on any packet high in just one of sugar, salt or fat. [8] India's regulator and the state of Maharashtra are moving junk food away from school gates. [9] US food companies now tell investors that rules on processed food could cut their sales. [13]

Part of the day's signals

Britain's hottest summer cost its dairy farms 240 million litres of milk. New Zealand's Fonterra says El Nino could cut its milk next.

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UK dairy farms delivered 240 million fewer litres of milk than expected between May and August, said the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), a UK climate research group. [1]

it set the range after allowing for El Nino [2]

Who is involved

Who is involved

Why it matters

Watch whether El Nino brings drought to New Zealand late in the 2026/27 season, when Fonterra says its milk growth could slow. [2]

How it works

Why a farm spends its money months before it earns any

How it works

Seed, feed and fuel are paid for long before a crop or a litre of milk is sold, so somebody has to cover the months in between.

How it works · step 1 of 5

A farm pays for seed, feed and fuel first

How it works · step 2 of 5

The crop or the milk is sold months later

How it works · step 3 of 5

Someone has to cover the months in between

How it works · step 4 of 5

A bank, a trader or the farm's savings does it

How it works · step 5 of 5

If that money is missing, the farmer waits or stops

The twist

In a bad year, a farm can run out of cash before it runs out of crop, because the bills come first and the sales come later.

The picture

The cost of remodelling a US McDonald's, paid up front, against the extra cash McDonald's expects it to bring each year. Earning the remodel back takes years.

Seen the same day

Ghana's cocoa board

It must pay for farmers' beans now and is paid when the cocoa is sold abroad, so it needs 16.3 billion cedis to cover the gap.

Seen the same day

UK dairy farms on winter feed

They lost the summer's milk money and are already using winter feed, which they will need to replace before the milk it makes is sold.

Seen the same day

US farmers at harvest

They pay record diesel prices this month to bring in crops that are sold later.

Seen the same day

Organic land in the US

A farm follows organic rules and carries the costs for three years before it can sell its crops as organic, at a higher price, to shops like Whole Foods.

The catch

Some buyers pay the farmer before the crop is grown, and then the buyer is the one who waits.

The whole

The dairy farmer in Gloucestershire, Ghana's cocoa buyers and McDonald's restaurant owners are all waiting for money they have already spent.

The whole

Each of them can see their own wait, and almost none of them can see the others.

What's really going on

Heat cost UK dairy farms 240 million litres of milk this summer, and Fonterra says El Nino could cut New Zealand's milk next. [1][2]

Why it works on people

A single big number, 240 million litres, makes the summer feel like a crisis, while the same report says the year's milk may still come close to a record. [1]

Who gains

The sale of its Mainland Group to Lactalis more than doubled profit, and the yearly payout rose to 73 cents a share from 57. [2]

Who pays

They lost milk worth more than 83 million pounds and have already started on winter feed. [1]

Nobody knows yet

How much milk El Nino will cost New Zealand.

Fonterra has named the risk but not a figure, and its earnings range for next year is 20 cents wide. [2]

Nobody knows yet

How much UK feed prices will rise this winter.

The ECIU's analyst says feed prices will follow the early start on winter feed, but gives no number. [1]

Good news

UK milk for the whole of 2026 could still come close to a record, even after the hottest summer on record cost 240 million litres, because farms produced extra earlier in the year.

Part of a signal

Heat costing farms their harvest

Also seen in Climate.

The whole signal →

The short version

That's the story in short.

The whole story has 12 more parts.

or swipe up for the next storyor scroll on for the next story ↓

The whole story, in 12 parts ↓

Part 1 of 12 · Who else is involved

Part 1 of 12 · Who else is involved

Part 2 of 12

That is about four days of the country's milk supply, and it was worth more than 83 million pounds. [1]

Part 3 of 12

The UK had its hottest summer on record in 2026, with five intense heatwaves and drought declared. [1]

Part 4 of 12

The heat dried out the grazing, stunted harvests and put livestock in England and Wales under heat strain. [1]

Part 5 of 12

Many farmers have already started giving their cattle winter feed. [1]

Part 6 of 12

Debbie Wilkins, a dairy and beef farmer in Gloucestershire, said costs pile up when cows are brought indoors, and the lost milk makes it worse. [1]

Part 7 of 12

Tom Cantillon, an analyst at the ECIU, called milk an unforgiving product, because it cannot be stockpiled. [1]

Part 8 of 12

He said a second bad year for grass has pushed farmers onto winter feed early, and feed prices will follow. [1]

Part 9 of 12

The UK's milk for the whole of 2026 could still be close to a record, because farms produced extra earlier in the year. [1]

Part 10 of 12

On Thursday Fonterra, the New Zealand co-operative that is the world's biggest dairy exporter, warned that El Nino could slow its milk growth late in the 2026/27 season. [2]

Part 11 of 12

El Nino is a warming of the eastern Pacific that can bring droughts and typhoons, and the World Meteorological Organization says this one could be the strongest ever. [2]

Part 12 of 12

Fonterra's profit more than doubled to NZ$2.61bn last year, helped by selling its Mainland Group to the French dairy company Lactalis. [2]

Ghana's cocoa board looks for money at home

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The Ghana Cocoa Board, COCOBOD, the state body that runs the country's cocoa trade, is trying to raise 16.3 billion cedis ($1.4bn) from local investors to buy the coming crop. [3]

The money Ghana's cocoa board is trying to raise, beside what it still owes buyers from last season.

Its yearly loan from international banks collapsed in the 2023/24 season, and a deal where trading houses paid in advance fell through last season. [3]

The new debt will be repaid from money for cocoa already sold ahead to foreign buyers. [3]

Ghana's licensed cocoa buyers say COCOBOD still owes them about 4 billion cedis for last season's beans. [3]

Why it matters

Ghana and Ivory Coast are the world's two biggest cocoa producers, and Ivory Coast opened its season on 1 September while Ghana has not named a date. [3]

Why it matters

Farmers and buyers blame the missing money for that delay, as they did for late payments to farmers last season. [3]

How it works

Ghana's cocoa board

It must pay for farmers' beans now and is paid when the cocoa is sold abroad, so it needs 16.3 billion cedis to cover the gap.

The idea, in story 1: Why a farm spends its money months before it earns any →

Who pays

COCOBOD still owes them about 4 billion cedis for last season, and their new season has no start date. [3]

Nobody knows yet

When Ghana's cocoa season will open.

COCOBOD has not named a date and did not answer Reuters, while Ivory Coast opened on 1 September. [3]

Nobody knows yet

Whether local investors will lend COCOBOD 16.3 billion cedis.

The first part, a bond and short-term notes, was only due to go on sale this week, and no result has been published. [3]

Brazil gets Uruguay's spare beef quota for China

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Brazil's president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, said on Monday that Uruguay will let Brazil use the part of Uruguay's China beef quota that it has not filled. [4]

98 of 100

of Brazil's China beef quota, shipped by June

Brazil had used about 98 of every 100 tonnes of its cheaper quota before the year was half over.

In January China set a quota for each big supplier and added a 55% tariff on beef above it. [4]

Brazil had shipped 98.5% of its 1.1 million tonne quota by June, the trading firm StoneX said. [4] Brazil's beef exports are expected to fall 10% this year. [4]

Why it matters

The deal lets more Brazilian beef reach China without the extra 55% tax. Uruguay's foreign ministry had not replied to Reuters when Lula announced it. [4]

Who gains

Using Uruguay's unfilled China quota lets more Brazilian beef in without the extra 55% tariff. [4]

US asks refiners to hold back diesel

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US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has asked several big refiners to limit diesel exports of their own accord, three people told Reuters. [5]

President Trump said on Tuesday he backed limiting exports, and Wright has called a ban a bad idea. [5]

US diesel costs about $6.52 a gallon, and stocks are 13% below normal for the time of year. [5]

Many US farmers are losing money as the harvest begins, with diesel leading the rise in costs. [6]

One combine harvester can use 300 gallons of diesel, and farm diesel costs double last year's. [20]

Why it matters

The price lands in the weeks farmers such as Addie Yoder in Missouri run their combines, from mid-September to late October. [20]

Why it matters

Oil companies warn that an export limit could force refineries to make less fuel of every kind. [5]

What's really going on

Across the day, the people who grow and sell food are paying now for money that comes later: Ghana's cocoa board must find 16.3 billion cedis before it can buy the crop, and US farmers pay record diesel prices to harvest. [3][5][6]

Who gains

They are earning record export revenue, and a voluntary limit leaves them to decide how much diesel to keep at home. [5]

Who pays

Diesel is about $6.52 a gallon in the weeks they run their combines, and many are in the red for the year. [5][6]

Nobody knows yet

Which refiners will limit diesel exports, and how anyone will check.

The people who spoke to Reuters did not name the companies, and it is not clear how a voluntary limit would be enforced. [5]

Part of a signal

Fuel costing more

Also seen in Finance, World and Climate.

The whole signal →

US farm groups want China's tariff gone

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US farm groups asked President Trump to press China's leader, Xi Jinping, to drop China's 10% tax on US farm goods, ahead of trade talks between the two this week. [7]

Traders say China is on pace to buy the 25 million tonnes of US soybeans a year it promised, but it has bought no US corn this season. [7]

The groups also want Trump to keep fees on Chinese-built ships suspended, a pause that ends in November. [7]

Why it matters

The 10% tax makes US soybeans dearer than Brazil's, so private Chinese buyers stay away. [7] The port fees would come back in the middle of the US harvest. [7]

Who gains

China's 10% tax on US farm goods does not apply to Brazil, so private Chinese buyers avoid US soybeans, and China has bought large amounts of Brazilian corn and sorghum. [7]

Nobody knows yet

Whether Trump and Xi agreed anything new on farm goods.

Analysts expected the two sides to repeat earlier buying targets without new deals, and no outcome was in the pool. [7]

India will warn on one bad nutrient, not two

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India's food regulator, FSSAI, told India's Supreme Court in a filing on Wednesday that a red warning will go on packets high in just one of salt, sugar or fat. [8]

Its earlier plan warned only when two of the three were high. [8] Foods and drinks with artificial sweeteners must also say so on the front of the pack. [8]

The timetable India's food regulator gave India's Supreme Court for its new warning labels.

FSSAI said it will finish the rules in about four months, and companies then get a year to comply. [8]

Why it matters

India's packaged food industry is worth about $100bn, and Nestle, Unilever, Mondelez and Mars all sell into it. [8]

Why it matters

For the first time, the regulator has given companies dates to work to. [8]

Nobody knows yet

What exactly India's final warning labels will say.

FSSAI's court filing is not public, and the rules are only due to be finished in about four months. [8]

Good news

India's food regulator told India's Supreme Court that a red warning will go on any packet high in just one of salt, sugar or fat, and foods with artificial sweeteners must say so on the front.

India moves junk food away from schools

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India's food regulator wants to stop shops near schools selling snacks high in fat, salt or sugar to schoolchildren. [9]

It published the limits in August and is taking comments until 6 October. [9]

Maharashtra, the state that includes Mumbai, goes further: no shop within 50 metres of a school may stock them. [9]

Its inspectors found 133 shops breaking the rule and ordered 51 to stop trading. [9]

Why it matters

Overweight or obese children aged 5 to 19 in India, in millions. The 2040 bar is a forecast, not a count.

The number of overweight or obese Indian children aged 5 to 19 rose from 28 million in 2015 to 41 million in 2025. [9]

Why it matters

Shopkeepers in the city of Bhubaneswar say their sales could fall by a third or more. [9]

Who pays

Inspectors ordered 51 shops to stop trading for stocking junk food within 50 metres of a school. [9]

General Mills cut prices, and sales held flat

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General Mills, the US maker of Cheerios and Pillsbury, said on 23 September that its sales were flat in the three months to 30 August. [10] Its operating profit fell 11%. [10]

The company cut its everyday prices last year to win back shoppers worn down by inflation. [10] It now sells cups and smaller boxes so the cheapest pack costs less. [10]

Why it matters

Its North American shop sales improved by about 2 percentage points on the quarter before. [10]

Why it matters

It still expects profit to fall 8% to 13% this year, so the price cuts cost it money while it waits for buyers. [10]

Aldi cuts US prices before winter

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Aldi, the discount grocer, said it is cutting US prices by about $86 million in total from 23 September to at least 3 November. [11]

Honeycrisp apples fall to $1.99 a pound, 35% less than last year. [11] Aldi says nearly one in three products on its shelves now cost less than a year ago. [11]

It plans to open 180 US stores this year. [11]

Why it matters

Bigger rivals such as Kroger and Albertsons have been closing stores. [11] Industry experts expect grocery prices to rise faster again later this year as transport costs climb. [11]

Who gains

It is opening 180 US stores this year and cutting prices while bigger rivals such as Kroger and Albertsons close stores. [11]

Good news

Aldi has cut the price of Honeycrisp apples in its US shops to $1.99 a pound, 35% less than last year, and nearly one in three of its products now costs less than a year ago.

McDonald's expects visits to stay flat

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McDonald's chief executive said on Wednesday that visits to restaurants in its main markets will stay flat while prices stay high. [12]

The company set out an $8.5bn plan over ten years to support the business owners who run its restaurants. [12]

Required remodels and upgrades could cost the average US restaurant at least $1.2m. [12] The support includes rent relief but does not pay for the remodels. [12]

Why it matters

US visits to McDonald's have fallen every full month since March, according to the data firm Placer.ai. [12]

Why it matters

The owners pay for the remodels up front, while the extra cash McDonald's expects, about $100,000 a year per restaurant, comes later. [12]

Who pays

Required remodels could cost at least $1.2m each, and the company's support does not cover them. [12]

Food giants warn investors about processed-food rules

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Campbell's and PepsiCo have told investors in their yearly reports that new rules on ultra-processed food could cut their sales and raise their costs. [13]

Conagra and Kraft Heinz say they face lawsuits claiming some of their products are ultra-processed and harm health. [13]

California's governor, Gavin Newsom, has until 30 September to sign or veto a state seal for food that is not ultra-processed. [13]

That bill counts additives such as emulsifiers, colours and sweeteners. [13]

Why it matters

Texas will require warning labels on products with some ingredients, including artificial colours, from 1 January 2027, and PepsiCo names that law as a risk. [13]

Why it matters

The US government's own plan to define ultra-processed food has shrunk from a rule to a paper. [13]

Nobody knows yet

Whether California's governor signs the ultra-processed food seal.

Gavin Newsom has until 30 September to sign or veto it. [13]

Organic food is running short in the US

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Whole Foods' chief executive, Jason Buechel, said on 14 September that US organic sales could pass $100bn soon, but supply is short. [14] Organic sales reached $76.6bn in 2025, up 6.8%. [14]

Certified organic land fell 9% in 2025, to 7.2 million acres. [14] A farm must follow organic rules for three years before it can sell its crops as organic. [14]

Why it matters

Whole Foods already pulls back promotions because it cannot get enough organic food. [14] Most of the growth in organic beef came from imports from Australia and Uruguay. [14]

How it works

Organic land in the US

A farm follows organic rules and carries the costs for three years before it can sell its crops as organic, at a higher price, to shops like Whole Foods.

The idea, in story 1: Why a farm spends its money months before it earns any →

Crop fuels could need an area the size of Germany

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Chatham House, a London think tank, and the Forest Stewardship Council expect world biofuel output to rise nearly 70% by 2030. [15]

Biofuels are made mostly from food crops like corn and sugar cane, and mixed into petrol and diesel. [15]

Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, the US and the EU have proposed or set higher blends since the Iran war began. [15]

If every proposal goes ahead, fuel crops need 36 million more hectares. [15]

The extra farmland the study says fuel crops would need if every proposed rule goes ahead.

Why it matters

That is roughly the size of Germany. [15] Sugar and corn prices have already risen about 20% since the war began, and the authors warn of more hunger later. [15]

Asian hornets move closer to England's south-west

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A water company in Devon and Cornwall is asking people to report Asian hornets, after sightings in neighbouring Somerset. [16]

By 3 September, Britain's National Bee Unit had recorded 167 of the hornets and 53 nests. [16] Hornet queens are blown across the Channel from France, and some hide under cargo. [16]

The number trapped on Alderney, a Channel Island, almost halved from last year. [16]

Why it matters

Guernsey's government says it tries to keep hornet numbers as low as possible to protect honeybees. [16]

Why it matters

A local group in Devon expects many more reports there within two or three years. [16]

Good news

The number of Asian hornets trapped on Alderney, a Channel Island, almost halved compared with last year.

A seed coating for corn in ammonia-heavy fields

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Sound Agriculture, a US farm-biology company, launched INFLECT, a powder of helpful bacteria and a fungus coated onto corn seed. [17]

It is made for fields fed with anhydrous ammonia, a common nitrogen fertiliser, or heavy manure, which can harm soil life. [17]

The company says trials at 12 sites raised corn yields by about six bushels an acre. [17] Yields rose at 92% of the sites. [17]

Why it matters

Most US corn growers are as worried or more worried about farm costs than a year ago. [17] The yield figures come from the company's own trials. [17]

Nobody knows yet

Whether Sound Agriculture's yield gains hold on other farms.

The six-bushel figure comes from the company's own trials at 12 sites, and it did not say how many acres they covered. [17]

China's healthy-food policies score medium

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A study in the journal Frontiers in Nutrition scored 15 of China's food and nutrition policies against international best practice. [18] All three areas scored medium, between 62% and 69%. [18]

The weakest score, 55.4%, was for keeping food companies' influence out of policy making. [18] Chinese shoppers want less sugar and more protein, but are careful with money. [18]

Why it matters

The study found the policies are in place, but the money and coordination to carry them out are weaker. [18]

Predicting weather damage to Taiwan's melons

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Researchers in Taiwan used county disaster records from 2003 to 2022 to build models that predict when rain and cold damage melon crops. [19]

The models predicted whether damage would happen with over 88% accuracy. [19] They found an average temperature of about 22.4C to be the line for growing melons. [19]

Predicting how bad the damage would be worked best for cold spells. [19]

Why it matters

Three to four typhoons hit Taiwan in an average year. [19] The authors say missing weather data, not weak models, limits the forecasts. [19]

That's the whole Food day.

17 stories, 20 sources.