Food & Farming · Friday, 25 September 2026
Britain's hottest summer cost its dairy farms 240 million litres of milk. New Zealand's Fonterra says El Nino could cut its milk next.
UK dairy farms delivered 240 million fewer litres of milk than expected this summer, worth more than 83 million pounds, and many have started giving cows their winter feed. Fonterra, the world's biggest dairy exporter, named El Nino as a risk to its milk. Ghana's cocoa board is raising 16.3 billion cedis at home to buy a crop whose season has not opened, and US farmers harvest under record diesel prices.
240m litres
of milk UK dairy farms did not deliver between May and August
worth more than 83 million pounds, about four days of supply
NZ$1bn
Fonterra will spend over three years on protein plants in New Zealand's South Island
it expects them to create 50 to 60 permanent jobs
65 to 85 cents
Fonterra's range for next year's earnings per share, in New Zealand cents
it set the range after allowing for El Nino
The lead story — what happened
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UK dairy farms delivered 240 million fewer litres of milk than expected between May and August, said the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), a UK climate research group.
[1] -
That is about four days of the country's milk supply, and it was worth more than 83 million pounds.
[1] -
The UK had its hottest summer on record in 2026, with five intense heatwaves and drought declared.
[1] -
The heat dried out the grazing, stunted harvests and put livestock in England and Wales under heat strain.
[1] -
Many farmers have already started giving their cattle winter feed.
[1] -
Debbie Wilkins, a dairy and beef farmer in Gloucestershire, said costs pile up when cows are brought indoors, and the lost milk makes it worse.
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Tom Cantillon, an analyst at the ECIU, called milk an unforgiving product, because it cannot be stockpiled.
[1] -
He said a second bad year for grass has pushed farmers onto winter feed early, and feed prices will follow.
[1] -
The UK's milk for the whole of 2026 could still be close to a record, because farms produced extra earlier in the year.
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On Thursday Fonterra, the New Zealand co-operative that is the world's biggest dairy exporter, warned that El Nino could slow its milk growth late in the 2026/27 season.
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El Nino is a warming of the eastern Pacific that can bring droughts and typhoons, and the World Meteorological Organization says this one could be the strongest ever.
[2] -
Fonterra's profit more than doubled to NZ$2.61bn last year, helped by selling its Mainland Group to the French dairy company Lactalis.
[2]
Who is involved
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The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU)
a UK research group on climate and energy; it counted how much milk the heat took from UK farms
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Debbie Wilkins
a dairy and beef farmer in Gloucestershire, England; her cows are on winter feed already
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Fonterra
a farmer-owned co-operative in New Zealand and the world's biggest dairy exporter; it named El Nino as a risk to its milk
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The World Meteorological Organization
the UN's weather agency; it says this El Nino could be the strongest ever
How it unfolded
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May to Aug Five intense heatwaves in the UK's hottest summer on record
[1] -
Summer Many UK farmers start giving cattle winter feed
[1] -
24 Sep Fonterra warns El Nino could slow its milk growth
[2] -
This week The ECIU puts the UK's lost milk at 240 million litres
[1]
Where this points
Watch whether El Nino brings drought to New Zealand late in the 2026/27 season, when Fonterra says its milk growth could slow.
What is pushing on the whole day
The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.
Heat cost UK dairy farms 240 million litres of milk this summer.
US diesel has reached about $6.52 a gallon.
General Mills, the maker of Cheerios, cut its prices last year to win shoppers back.
India's food regulator will warn on any packet high in just one of sugar, salt or fat.
The rest of the day
16 more stories on this beat.
Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.
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02
Ghana's cocoa board looks for money at home
The Ghana Cocoa Board, COCOBOD, the state body that runs the country's cocoa trade, is trying to raise 16.3 billion cedis ($1.4bn) from local investors to buy the coming crop.
[3] Its yearly loan from international banks collapsed in the 2023/24 season, and a deal where trading houses paid in advance fell through last season.[3] The new debt will be repaid from money for cocoa already sold ahead to foreign buyers.[3] Ghana's licensed cocoa buyers say COCOBOD still owes them about 4 billion cedis for last season's beans.[3] COCOBOD wants to raise16.3 bn cedisOwed to buyers for last season4 bn cedisThe money Ghana's cocoa board is trying to raise, beside what it still owes buyers from last season. Why it matters — Ghana and Ivory Coast are the world's two biggest cocoa producers, and Ivory Coast opened its season on 1 September while Ghana has not named a date.
[3] Farmers and buyers blame the missing money for that delay, as they did for late payments to farmers last season.[3] -
03
Brazil gets Uruguay's spare beef quota for China
Brazil's president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, said on Monday that Uruguay will let Brazil use the part of Uruguay's China beef quota that it has not filled.
[4] In January China set a quota for each big supplier and added a 55% tariff on beef above it.[4] Brazil had shipped 98.5% of its 1.1 million tonne quota by June, the trading firm StoneX said.[4] Brazil's beef exports are expected to fall 10% this year.[4] 98 of 100
of Brazil's China beef quota, shipped by June
Brazil had used about 98 of every 100 tonnes of its cheaper quota before the year was half over. Why it matters — The deal lets more Brazilian beef reach China without the extra 55% tax. Uruguay's foreign ministry had not replied to Reuters when Lula announced it.
[4] -
04
US asks refiners to hold back diesel
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has asked several big refiners to limit diesel exports of their own accord, three people told Reuters.
[5] President Trump said on Tuesday he backed limiting exports, and Wright has called a ban a bad idea.[5] US diesel costs about $6.52 a gallon, and stocks are 13% below normal for the time of year.[5] Many US farmers are losing money as the harvest begins, with diesel leading the rise in costs.[6] One combine harvester can use 300 gallons of diesel, and farm diesel costs double last year's.[20] Why it matters — The price lands in the weeks farmers such as Addie Yoder in Missouri run their combines, from mid-September to late October.
[20] Oil companies warn that an export limit could force refineries to make less fuel of every kind.[5] -
05
US farm groups want China's tariff gone
US farm groups asked President Trump to press China's leader, Xi Jinping, to drop China's 10% tax on US farm goods, ahead of trade talks between the two this week.
[7] Traders say China is on pace to buy the 25 million tonnes of US soybeans a year it promised, but it has bought no US corn this season.[7] The groups also want Trump to keep fees on Chinese-built ships suspended, a pause that ends in November.[7] Why it matters — The 10% tax makes US soybeans dearer than Brazil's, so private Chinese buyers stay away.
[7] The port fees would come back in the middle of the US harvest.[7] -
06
India will warn on one bad nutrient, not two
India's food regulator, FSSAI, told India's Supreme Court in a filing on Wednesday that a red warning will go on packets high in just one of salt, sugar or fat.
[8] Its earlier plan warned only when two of the three were high.[8] Foods and drinks with artificial sweeteners must also say so on the front of the pack.[8] FSSAI said it will finish the rules in about four months, and companies then get a year to comply.[8] Rules finishedabout 4 months1 yearTime for companies to complyThe timetable India's food regulator gave India's Supreme Court for its new warning labels. Why it matters — India's packaged food industry is worth about $100bn, and Nestle, Unilever, Mondelez and Mars all sell into it.
[8] For the first time, the regulator has given companies dates to work to.[8] -
07
India moves junk food away from schools
India's food regulator wants to stop shops near schools selling snacks high in fat, salt or sugar to schoolchildren.
[9] It published the limits in August and is taking comments until 6 October.[9] Maharashtra, the state that includes Mumbai, goes further: no shop within 50 metres of a school may stock them.[9] Its inspectors found 133 shops breaking the rule and ordered 51 to stop trading.[9] 201528 m202541 m2040 (forecast)56 mOverweight or obese children aged 5 to 19 in India, in millions. The 2040 bar is a forecast, not a count. Why it matters — The number of overweight or obese Indian children aged 5 to 19 rose from 28 million in 2015 to 41 million in 2025.
[9] Shopkeepers in the city of Bhubaneswar say their sales could fall by a third or more.[9] -
08
General Mills cut prices, and sales held flat
General Mills, the US maker of Cheerios and Pillsbury, said on 23 September that its sales were flat in the three months to 30 August.
[10] Its operating profit fell 11%.[10] The company cut its everyday prices last year to win back shoppers worn down by inflation.[10] It now sells cups and smaller boxes so the cheapest pack costs less.[10] Why it matters — Its North American shop sales improved by about 2 percentage points on the quarter before.
[10] It still expects profit to fall 8% to 13% this year, so the price cuts cost it money while it waits for buyers.[10] -
09
Aldi cuts US prices before winter
Aldi, the discount grocer, said it is cutting US prices by about $86 million in total from 23 September to at least 3 November.
[11] Honeycrisp apples fall to $1.99 a pound, 35% less than last year.[11] Aldi says nearly one in three products on its shelves now cost less than a year ago.[11] It plans to open 180 US stores this year.[11] Why it matters — Bigger rivals such as Kroger and Albertsons have been closing stores.
[11] Industry experts expect grocery prices to rise faster again later this year as transport costs climb.[11] -
10
McDonald's expects visits to stay flat
McDonald's chief executive said on Wednesday that visits to restaurants in its main markets will stay flat while prices stay high.
[12] The company set out an $8.5bn plan over ten years to support the business owners who run its restaurants.[12] Required remodels and upgrades could cost the average US restaurant at least $1.2m.[12] The support includes rent relief but does not pay for the remodels.[12] Why it matters — US visits to McDonald's have fallen every full month since March, according to the data firm Placer.ai.
[12] The owners pay for the remodels up front, while the extra cash McDonald's expects, about $100,000 a year per restaurant, comes later.[12] -
11
Food giants warn investors about processed-food rules
Campbell's and PepsiCo have told investors in their yearly reports that new rules on ultra-processed food could cut their sales and raise their costs.
[13] Conagra and Kraft Heinz say they face lawsuits claiming some of their products are ultra-processed and harm health.[13] California's governor, Gavin Newsom, has until 30 September to sign or veto a state seal for food that is not ultra-processed.[13] That bill counts additives such as emulsifiers, colours and sweeteners.[13] Why it matters — Texas will require warning labels on products with some ingredients, including artificial colours, from 1 January 2027, and PepsiCo names that law as a risk.
[13] The US government's own plan to define ultra-processed food has shrunk from a rule to a paper.[13] -
12
Organic food is running short in the US
Whole Foods' chief executive, Jason Buechel, said on 14 September that US organic sales could pass $100bn soon, but supply is short.
[14] Organic sales reached $76.6bn in 2025, up 6.8%.[14] Certified organic land fell 9% in 2025, to 7.2 million acres.[14] A farm must follow organic rules for three years before it can sell its crops as organic.[14] Why it matters — Whole Foods already pulls back promotions because it cannot get enough organic food.
[14] Most of the growth in organic beef came from imports from Australia and Uruguay.[14] -
13
Crop fuels could need an area the size of Germany
Chatham House, a London think tank, and the Forest Stewardship Council expect world biofuel output to rise nearly 70% by 2030.
[15] Biofuels are made mostly from food crops like corn and sugar cane, and mixed into petrol and diesel.[15] Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, the US and the EU have proposed or set higher blends since the Iran war began.[15] If every proposal goes ahead, fuel crops need 36 million more hectares.[15] 36m hectaresExtra land for fuel crops by 2030About the size ofGermanyThe extra farmland the study says fuel crops would need if every proposed rule goes ahead. Why it matters — That is roughly the size of Germany.
[15] Sugar and corn prices have already risen about 20% since the war began, and the authors warn of more hunger later.[15] -
14
Asian hornets move closer to England's south-west
A water company in Devon and Cornwall is asking people to report Asian hornets, after sightings in neighbouring Somerset.
[16] By 3 September, Britain's National Bee Unit had recorded 167 of the hornets and 53 nests.[16] Hornet queens are blown across the Channel from France, and some hide under cargo.[16] The number trapped on Alderney, a Channel Island, almost halved from last year.[16] Why it matters — Guernsey's government says it tries to keep hornet numbers as low as possible to protect honeybees.
[16] A local group in Devon expects many more reports there within two or three years.[16] -
15
A seed coating for corn in ammonia-heavy fields
Sound Agriculture, a US farm-biology company, launched INFLECT, a powder of helpful bacteria and a fungus coated onto corn seed.
[17] It is made for fields fed with anhydrous ammonia, a common nitrogen fertiliser, or heavy manure, which can harm soil life.[17] The company says trials at 12 sites raised corn yields by about six bushels an acre.[17] Yields rose at 92% of the sites.[17] Why it matters — Most US corn growers are as worried or more worried about farm costs than a year ago.
[17] The yield figures come from the company's own trials.[17] -
16
China's healthy-food policies score medium
A study in the journal Frontiers in Nutrition scored 15 of China's food and nutrition policies against international best practice.
[18] All three areas scored medium, between 62% and 69%.[18] The weakest score, 55.4%, was for keeping food companies' influence out of policy making.[18] Chinese shoppers want less sugar and more protein, but are careful with money.[18] Why it matters — The study found the policies are in place, but the money and coordination to carry them out are weaker.
[18] -
17
Predicting weather damage to Taiwan's melons
Researchers in Taiwan used county disaster records from 2003 to 2022 to build models that predict when rain and cold damage melon crops.
[19] The models predicted whether damage would happen with over 88% accuracy.[19] They found an average temperature of about 22.4C to be the line for growing melons.[19] Predicting how bad the damage would be worked best for cold spells.[19] Why it matters — Three to four typhoons hit Taiwan in an average year.
[19] The authors say missing weather data, not weak models, limits the forecasts.[19]
Why a farm spends its money months before it earns any
Seed, feed and fuel are paid for long before a crop or a litre of milk is sold, so somebody has to cover the months in between.
The twist
In a bad year, a farm can run out of cash before it runs out of crop, because the bills come first and the sales come later.
The picture
How it works
- A farm pays for seed, feed and fuel first
- The crop or the milk is sold months later
- Someone has to cover the months in between
- A bank, a trader or the farm's savings does it
- If that money is missing, the farmer waits or stops
The same force, elsewhere today
Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.
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Ghana's cocoa board
It must pay for farmers' beans now and is paid when the cocoa is sold abroad, so it needs 16.3 billion cedis to cover the gap.
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UK dairy farms on winter feed
They lost the summer's milk money and are already using winter feed, which they will need to replace before the milk it makes is sold.
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US farmers at harvest
They pay record diesel prices this month to bring in crops that are sold later.
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Organic land in the US
A farm follows organic rules and carries the costs for three years before it can sell its crops as organic, at a higher price, to shops like Whole Foods.
Where you've seen this
A new restaurant
rent, kitchen and staff are paid for weeks before the first customer eats
A school uniform shop
it buys a whole year's stock in summer and sells most of it in September
A house builder
pays for bricks and workers first, and is paid when the house is sold
The catch
Some buyers pay the farmer before the crop is grown, and then the buyer is the one who waits.
And the whole of it
The dairy farmer in Gloucestershire, Ghana's cocoa buyers and McDonald's restaurant owners are all waiting for money they have already spent. Each of them can see their own wait, and almost none of them can see the others.
What is really going on
Heat cost UK dairy farms 240 million litres of milk this summer, and Fonterra says El Nino could cut New Zealand's milk next.
Why it works on us — A single big number, 240 million litres, makes the summer feel like a crisis, while the same report says the year's milk may still come close to a record.
Who gains
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Brazil's beef exporters
— Using Uruguay's unfilled China quota lets more Brazilian beef in without the extra 55% tariff.
[4] -
Brazil's grain sellers
— China's 10% tax on US farm goods does not apply to Brazil, so private Chinese buyers avoid US soybeans, and China has bought large amounts of Brazilian corn and sorghum.
[7] -
US refiners
— They are earning record export revenue, and a voluntary limit leaves them to decide how much diesel to keep at home.
[5] -
Aldi
— It is opening 180 US stores this year and cutting prices while bigger rivals such as Kroger and Albertsons close stores.
[11] -
Fonterra's shareholders
— The sale of its Mainland Group to Lactalis more than doubled profit, and the yearly payout rose to 73 cents a share from 57.
[2]
Who pays
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UK dairy farmers
— They lost milk worth more than 83 million pounds and have already started on winter feed.
[1] -
Ghana's cocoa buyers
— COCOBOD still owes them about 4 billion cedis for last season, and their new season has no start date.
[3] -
US grain farmers
— Diesel is about $6.52 a gallon in the weeks they run their combines, and many are in the red for the year.
[5] [6] -
McDonald's restaurant owners
— Required remodels could cost at least $1.2m each, and the company's support does not cover them.
[12] -
Shopkeepers near schools in Maharashtra
— Inspectors ordered 51 shops to stop trading for stocking junk food within 50 metres of a school.
[9]
What nobody knows yet
Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.
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01
When Ghana's cocoa season will open.
COCOBOD has not named a date and did not answer Reuters, while Ivory Coast opened on 1 September.
[3] -
02
Whether local investors will lend COCOBOD 16.3 billion cedis.
The first part, a bond and short-term notes, was only due to go on sale this week, and no result has been published.
[3] -
03
How much milk El Nino will cost New Zealand.
Fonterra has named the risk but not a figure, and its earnings range for next year is 20 cents wide.
[2] -
04
How much UK feed prices will rise this winter.
The ECIU's analyst says feed prices will follow the early start on winter feed, but gives no number.
[1] -
05
Whether Trump and Xi agreed anything new on farm goods.
Analysts expected the two sides to repeat earlier buying targets without new deals, and no outcome was in the pool.
[7] -
06
Which refiners will limit diesel exports, and how anyone will check.
The people who spoke to Reuters did not name the companies, and it is not clear how a voluntary limit would be enforced.
[5] -
07
What exactly India's final warning labels will say.
FSSAI's court filing is not public, and the rules are only due to be finished in about four months.
[8] -
08
Whether California's governor signs the ultra-processed food seal.
Gavin Newsom has until 30 September to sign or veto it.
[13] -
09
Whether Sound Agriculture's yield gains hold on other farms.
The six-bushel figure comes from the company's own trials at 12 sites, and it did not say how many acres they covered.
[17]
UK milk for the whole of 2026 could still come close to a record, even after the hottest summer on record cost 240 million litres, because farms produced extra earlier in the year.
Also true today
- India's food regulator told India's Supreme Court that a red warning will go on any packet high in just one of salt, sugar or fat, and foods with artificial sweeteners must say so on the front.
- The number of Asian hornets trapped on Alderney, a Channel Island, almost halved compared with last year.
- Aldi has cut the price of Honeycrisp apples in its US shops to $1.99 a pound, 35% less than last year, and nearly one in three of its products now costs less than a year ago.
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