Wheat buyers who waited for a Black Sea deal now pay about a quarter more

The stories

12 on this beat today.

Every story told the same way: what happened, who is involved, why it matters, how it works, the truth and the good news.

1. 01

   Wheat buyers who waited for a Black Sea deal now pay about a quarter more

   1m of 5m

   tonnes of Russian wheat exported this September, against a year ago

   Ukraine is also shipping half its usual amount this month. [1]

   40%

   rise in Chicago wheat futures since the June lows

   The price is now at a three-and-a-half-year high. [1]

   $340-345

   a tonne for October wheat delivered to South-east Asia

   That is about 25% more than Black Sea wheat cost before the crisis. [1]

   30%

   of capacity: how hard many Egyptian flour mills are running

   Their owners are holding out for a price drop if shipping restarts. [1]

   What happened

   • Since July, attacks on ships and ports have brought grain cargoes out of the Black Sea almost to a standstill. [1]
   • Russia is on track to export about 1 million tonnes of wheat in September, against 5 million a year ago, on estimates by Kpler, a company that tracks commodity shipments. [1]
   • Ukraine will ship about 1 million tonnes of wheat this month, half of what it shipped last September. [1]
   • Wheat futures in Chicago, the world's benchmark price for wheat bought for later delivery, have risen about 40% from their June lows to a three-and-a-half-year high. [1]
   • Many importers held off buying for months, hoping Russia and Ukraine would agree to let grain ships through. [1]
   • Their stocks are now running thin, especially in Asia. [1]
   • Indonesia, the world's second-biggest wheat importer, got about 60,000 tonnes from the Black Sea this month, against half a million tonnes last September. [1]
   • Indonesian millers now pay 20% to 25% more for Australian wheat than they paid for their Black Sea cargoes. [1]
   • Some are buying small container loads instead of whole ships. [1]
   • In Vietnam, the milling company Golden Wheat lost four Black Sea cargoes, about a fifth of what it uses in a year. [2]
   • It found wheat from Bulgaria to replace two of them. [2]
   • Egypt, the world's biggest wheat buyer, imported 143,870 tonnes in the first half of September, against 876,139 tonnes a year earlier. [1]
   • Its supply minister says it is turning to France and other European sellers. [1]
   • Many Egyptian mills are running at 30% of capacity, an Alexandria trader said, because a shipping deal could cut prices by up to a fifth. [1]
   • The grain exists.
   • The US agriculture department projects Russia's and Ukraine's combined wheat stocks at a 33-year high. [6]
   • Wheat is only about a tenth of what a British loaf costs to make, and energy and other bakery costs also push the bread price up. [7]

   Russian wheat exports, September 20255 m tonnes

   Russian wheat exports, September 2026 (estimate)1 m tonnes

   Who is involved

   • Egypt's government the world's biggest wheat buyer; its supply minister, Sherif Farouk, says it is turning to France and other European sellers
   • Indonesia's flour millers buyers for the world's second-biggest wheat importer; paying 20% to 25% more for Australian and Argentine wheat
   • Golden Wheat a flour milling company in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; lost four Black Sea cargoes this summer
   • Kpler a company that tracks commodity shipments; its figures show Black Sea wheat exports falling to a fraction of last year
   • Russia and Ukraine two of the world's biggest wheat sellers, at war; their attacks on each other's ships and ports have stalled the trade

   How it unfolded

   1. July attacks on ships and ports bring Black Sea grain cargoes near a standstill [1]
   2. June to September Chicago wheat futures climb about 40% to a three-and-a-half-year high [1]
   3. 20 September Egypt's supply minister says the country is turning to France and other European sellers [1]
   4. 23 September officials change entry checks on the Danube to cut a two-week queue of ships for Ukraine's river ports [3]
   5. End of the year the Southern Hemisphere harvest arrives, and traders expect buyers to compete hard for cargoes until then [1]

   Why it matters

   Watch for any grain-shipping agreement between Russia and Ukraine before the Southern Hemisphere harvest at the end of the year; one trader said a deal could cut prices by $50 to $60 a tonne. [1]

   The truth

   • What is really going on Russia and Ukraine hold more wheat than at any time in 33 years, but attacks on ships since July keep most of it in port.So flour mills in Indonesia, Vietnam and Egypt are paying about a quarter more for wheat from Australia, Argentina and France, and the cost reaches the poorest wheat-importing countries first.
   • Who gains Wheat exporters in Australia and Argentina — Indonesian millers are paying them 20% to 25% more than they paid for Black Sea wheat. [1]
   • Who gains France and other European wheat sellers — Egypt, the world's biggest buyer, says it is turning to them instead of Russia and Ukraine. [1]
   • Who pays Flour mills in South-east Asia and their customers — Wheat for October costs about 25% more, and one mill said it cannot pass all of that on to its flour buyers. [1]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether Russia and Ukraine will agree anything that lets grain ships sail again, and when.

     Importers have been waiting for exactly that since July, and one Egyptian trader says a deal could cut prices by $50 to $60 a tonne. [1] No talks on grain shipping are named in any of today's reports.

   • Nobody knows yet

     How much grain Russia is really sending abroad.

     Kpler puts Russia's September wheat exports at about 1 million tonnes. [1] Sovecon, another consultancy, puts all Russian grain at 2.45 million tonnes, and Russia's agriculture minister says there are no export problems at all. [5] They count different things, and none of the figures can be checked from outside.

   • Nobody knows yet

     How long Egypt and other importers can keep waiting.

     Some importers say their stocks last until November or the end of the year. [1] Egypt's official data show its imports, and none of today's reports gives a figure for the wheat it holds. [1]

1. 02

   Ukraine's river route gets a faster gate

   What happened

   • Ukraine now sends most of its grain through three ports on the Danube river, because Russian attacks have in effect shut its Black Sea ports. [3]
   • Those sea ports used to handle 90% of its exports. [3]
   • Ships waiting to enter the Sulina Canal, the Danube's way in from the sea, have queued for more than two weeks. [3]
   • Shippers said on Wednesday that officials will start clearing ships while they are still at sea, not inside the canal. [3]
   • Shipping grain from the Danube to Egypt cost about $105 a tonne on 11 September, against $30 in July. [3]

   Danube to Egypt, 11 July$30 a tonne

   Danube to Egypt, 11 September$105 a tonne

   Why it matters

   Delivery from Ukraine to Egypt, a big buyer, has stretched from 12 days to more than a month, shippers say. [3]

   Ukraine has exported about 930,000 tonnes of grain so far this September, against 1.78 million tonnes in the same days last year. [3]

1. 03

   A development bank cuts its forecast again

   What happened

   • The EBRD, a development bank that covers 41 mostly emerging economies, now expects them to grow 2.5% this year. [4]
   • That is its second cut in a row. [4]
   • Its chief economist, Beata Javorcik, named diesel, wheat and the cost of borrowing as the pressure points. [4]
   • She said world wheat prices are up about 30% since February, as attacks cut Ukraine's exports to their lowest since April 2022. [4]

   Why it matters

   The bank says Ukraine could lose $5.5 billion of wheat, seed-oil and metal exports this year, about 2.5% of its economy. [4]

   Farmers who cannot sell may not afford fertiliser for the next planting, and countries such as Egypt that pay part of the bread price face a bigger bill. [4]

   How it works

   Why wheat can jump 40% and a loaf of bread barely moves

   Wheat is about a tenth of what a loaf costs to make, so a food sold closer to how it was grown passes on more of a crop's price rise.

   The twist

   The closer a food is to the field when it is bought, the more of a crop's price rise the buyer pays. A loaf is mostly the cost of milling, baking and selling, so its price moves a little. A potato is mostly potato, so its price moves a lot.

   The picture

   • Wheat10%
   • Milling, power, baking, wages and the shop90%

   Step by step

   1. 1 Wheat is traded worldwide, so blocked ships lift its price for every buyer
   2. 2 A flour mill buys the grain and feels the full rise
   3. 3 A baker then pays for power, ovens, wages and the shop
   4. 4 Wheat is about a tenth of what it costs to make a British loaf
   5. 5 So a big jump in wheat becomes a small rise in bread
   6. 6 Foods sold close to how they were grown pass on more of the jump

   The same force, elsewhere today

   Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

   • Europe's potato harvest comes up short

     A potato reaches the shop almost as it was dug, so a crop 3.5 million tonnes short goes nearly straight into what shoppers pay for potatoes.

   • Sudan's pound loses nearly half its value

     Importers buy wheat and fuel with black-market dollars, so each fall in the pound goes straight into the price of the goods they bring in.

   • A development bank cuts its forecast again

     Egypt pays part of the price of bread, so dearer wheat lands on Egypt's budget before it reaches the shopper.

   Where you've seen this

   Petrol and plane tickets

   Crude oil is a big part of what petrol costs, so pump prices follow oil within weeks; it is a smaller part of a plane ticket.

   Coffee in a cafe

   The beans in a cafe coffee cost little next to rent and wages, so a bean shortage shows up on a bag of beans before it shows up on a cafe menu.

   Gold coins and gold rings

   A coin is almost all gold and tracks the gold price; a ring is part gold and part the jeweller's work.

   The catch

   Small shares add up. When wheat, diesel and borrowing all rise at once, as the EBRD says they are now, bread does get dearer.

   And the whole of it

   The blocked ships reach a flour mill in Indonesia first, as a cargo that costs a quarter more. They reach a shopper in Britain last, as a small rise in the price of a loaf, and nothing on the label says why.

   The truth

   • Who pays Ukraine's farmers — The EBRD says Ukraine could lose $5.5 billion of exports this year, and farmers who cannot sell may not afford fertiliser. [4]

   Good news

   • Average inflation across the 41 economies the EBRD covers has settled at about 6%, a gentler rise than the bank had feared.

1. 04

   Sudan's pound loses nearly half its value

   What happened

   • In the parts of Sudan its army holds, the Sudanese pound has lost nearly half its value since early summer. [8]
   • It traded at about 7,500 to the dollar on the black market on Tuesday, against 4,100 in May and about 600 before the war. [8]
   • The army and a paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces, have been at war for nearly three and a half years. [8]
   • Importers buy fuel and wheat with black-market dollars. [8]
   • A litre of cooking oil went from 17,000 pounds to 23,000 in one week. [8]

   Before the war600 pounds per dollar

   May 20264,100 pounds per dollar

   This week, black market7,500 pounds per dollar

   Why it matters

   Much of the gold, livestock and oilseeds that earn Sudan dollars comes from areas the paramilitaries hold, where the pound has stayed near 4,200. [8]

   A school head in Omdurman says his monthly pay, once worth $800, is now worth about $70. [8]

   How it works

   Importers buy wheat and fuel with black-market dollars, so each fall in the pound goes straight into the price of the goods they bring in.

   The idea, in story 03: Why wheat can jump 40% and a loaf of bread barely moves →

   The truth

   • Who gains The Rapid Support Forces in Sudan — They hold areas that produce much of the gold, livestock and oilseeds that earn dollars, and the pound there has stayed near 4,200. [8]
   • Who pays People in army-held Sudan — A school head's monthly pay, once worth $800, is now worth about $70, and cooking oil rose by about a third in a week. [8]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How far Sudan's pound will fall.

     The central bank no longer updates the official exchange rate. [8] It went from 4,100 to the dollar in May to about 7,500 this week. [8]

2. 05

   Olive trees torn out before the West Bank harvest

   What happened

   • Israel's military uprooted Palestinian olive trees with bulldozers in Deir Nizam, a village near Ramallah in the occupied West Bank, on Wednesday. [9]
   • The olive harvest there usually starts in the first week of October. [9]
   • Nather Tamimi, one landowner, said the land he farms with his brothers produces 120 drums of olive oil. [9]
   • The military had not answered Reuters by Wednesday evening. [9]
   • In the past it has said it clears trees to prevent ambushes on its troops. [9]

   Why it matters

   Farming is about 8% of the Palestinian economy and more than 60,000 jobs, and olives are its backbone, according to the Palestinian agriculture ministry. [9]

   Palestinian human rights groups say uprooting the trees takes away farmers' income. [9]

   The truth

   • Who pays Olive farmers at Deir Nizam in the West Bank — Their trees were uprooted days before the harvest; one family's land produced 120 drums of oil. [9]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Why Israel's military uprooted the olive trees at Deir Nizam.

     The military had not answered Reuters by Wednesday evening. [9] In the past it has said it clears trees to prevent ambushes on its troops, and Palestinian rights groups reject that. [9]

3. 06

   Southern Africa has weeks before planting

   What happened

   • Sea temperatures in the middle of the tropical Pacific were about 2.9C above normal in early September, climate scientist Zeke Hausfather wrote in the journal Nature. [10]
   • That is more than 1C warmer than at the same point in the strong El Nino years of 1997 and 2015. [10]
   • El Nino brings drought to some regions and floods to others. [10]
   • Forecasts give a more than 90% chance this one will be the strongest since records began in the 1870s. [10]

   80 of 100

   chance in 100 of a dry rainy season in southern Africa, in the strongest El Nino years

   Why it matters

   In the four strongest El Ninos from 1980 to 2016, southern Africa had about an 80% chance of a drier than normal rainy season. [10]

   South Africa's maize harvest fell by nearly half in 2015-16, and planting there starts in October. [10]

   The truth

   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether southern Africa's governments act before planting starts in October.

     Zeke Hausfather writes in Nature that they have only weeks to hand out drought-tolerant seed. [10] His piece names no government that has started.

4. 07

   Europe's potato harvest comes up short

   What happened

   • Potato harvests in Britain and Europe could be 3.5 million tonnes lower than expected after an extremely dry summer, an article in The Conversation says, citing recent reports. [7]
   • That is about 5kg for every person on the continent. [7]
   • Potatoes need a lot of water, and people buy about the same amount whatever the price, so a smaller crop tends to push prices up. [7]
   • Leafy greens also suffered, and UK wheat yields fell well below recent averages. [7]

   Why it matters

   Cocoa is also expected to rise again after a poor crop this year, and a bar of Dairy Milk rose more than 60% in price compared with 2021. [7]

   Chocolate makers may swap cocoa butter for cheaper fats such as palm oil. [7]

   How it works

   A potato reaches the shop almost as it was dug, so a crop 3.5 million tonnes short goes nearly straight into what shoppers pay for potatoes.

   The idea, in story 03: Why wheat can jump 40% and a loaf of bread barely moves →
5. 08

   US dairy fees stop paying for climate goals

   What happened

   • The US agriculture department said on 17 September that dairy checkoff money will no longer fund environmental, social and governance projects. [11]
   • A checkoff is a compulsory charge on farmers that pays for promotion, research and nutrition education for their product. [11]
   • The Innovation Center for US Dairy, set up with that money, had set greenhouse-gas and net-zero targets. [11]
   • The department also told its marketing service to check that no other checkoff pays for such goals. [11]

   Why it matters

   Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said farmers' fees should build demand for their products, not what she called radical climate agendas. [11]

   The department still allows checkoff money for office work that does not serve those goals. [11]

   The truth

   • Who gains US dairy farmers who pay the checkoff — Their compulsory fee will no longer pay for the dairy Innovation Center's net-zero projects, which Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins says raise their costs. [11]
   • Nobody knows yet

     What the dairy checkoff money will pay for instead.

     The department's notice ends funding for climate and governance projects but names no sum and no new use for the money. [11]

6. 09

   Hurricane Lowell hits Hawaii's farms

   What happened

   • The US agriculture department said on 23 September that farms in Hawaii were badly hit by Hurricane Lowell. [12]
   • It pointed farmers to its disaster programmes, which pay for livestock that died, lost feed, damaged beehives and fruit trees that need replanting. [12]
   • Farmers have until 1 March 2027 to report this year's livestock and feed losses. [12]
   • Claims to replant trees must be filed within 90 days. [12]

   Why it matters

   Farmers in counties declared disaster areas can also get emergency loans at low interest. [12]

   The department's notice gives no estimate of the damage. [12]

   The truth

   • Nobody knows yet

     How much damage Hurricane Lowell did to Hawaii's farms.

     The US agriculture department says farms were significantly impacted but gives no estimate of losses. [12]

7. 10

   US food-aid cuts reach families

   What happened

   • Cuts to SNAP, the US food-stamp programme, are reaching families before the US midterm elections, the New York Times reports. [13]
   • The cuts came in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, President Trump's main tax-and-spending law, whose spending and tax breaks total more than $3 trillion. [13]
   • Ashley Whitlock, a substitute teacher in Belmont, North Carolina, lost her SNAP benefits in the summer. [13]
   • A free grocery store in Newark, New Jersey, could help people who were cut off. [13]

   Why it matters

   The law cut food aid, Medicaid and health subsidies to pay for part of its tax cuts. [13]

   So people judge it by whether they got a tax cut or lost a benefit. [13]

   The truth

   • Who gains Americans who got the new US tax breaks — The same law that cut food stamps gave larger tax refunds and breaks on tips and overtime pay. [13]
   • Who pays People cut off from US food stamps — A substitute teacher in North Carolina lost her benefits this summer, among families losing aid under the new law. [13]
8. 11

   California grape growers cannot sell their crop

   What happened

   • It is harvest time in California's wine country, and many grape growers are struggling to sell their grapes because Americans are drinking less wine, AP reports. [14]
   • Some growers are tearing out vineyards their families have farmed for generations. [14]

   Why it matters

   The fall in wine drinking reaches the farm at harvest, when growers find no buyer for grapes already on the vine. [14]

   The truth

   • Who pays California grape growers — With Americans drinking less wine, some are tearing out vineyards their families farmed for generations. [14]
9. 12

   Himalayan flood warnings lose their money

   What happened

   • A satellite programme that helped Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan watch for floods and landslides lost its funding when the US cut foreign aid, AP reports. [15]
   • SERVIR-Hindu Kush Himalaya was run by USAID, NASA and a research centre in Kathmandu, and ended in January 2025. [15]
   • The US State Department says its tools still work through that centre. [15]
   • A new report by the consultancy Systemiq says Himalayan glaciers are losing ice 65% faster than a decade ago. [15]

   Why it matters

   The research centre, ICIMOD, says the changing mountains put food, water and energy at risk for nearly 2 billion people living in or below them. [15]

   Aid from the richest donor countries fell 23% in 2025, the largest drop on record. [15]