Food & Farming · Thursday, 24 September 2026

01 Briefing what happened

Wheat buyers who waited for a Black Sea deal now pay about a quarter more

Food & Farming 15 sources

Attacks on ships have kept most Russian and Ukrainian grain in port since July. Importers in Asia and Egypt held off buying, hoping for a deal, and are now running short as wheat hits a three-and-a-half-year high.

1m of 5m

tonnes of Russian wheat exported this September, against a year ago

Ukraine is also shipping half its usual amount this month. [1]

40%

rise in Chicago wheat futures since the June lows

The price is now at a three-and-a-half-year high. [1]

$340-345

a tonne for October wheat delivered to South-east Asia

That is about 25% more than Black Sea wheat cost before the crisis. [1]

30%

of capacity: how hard many Egyptian flour mills are running

Their owners are holding out for a price drop if shipping restarts. [1]

The lead story — what happened

Since July, attacks on ships and ports have brought grain cargoes out of the Black Sea almost to a standstill. [1]
Russia is on track to export about 1 million tonnes of wheat in September, against 5 million a year ago, on estimates by Kpler, a company that tracks commodity shipments. [1]
Ukraine will ship about 1 million tonnes of wheat this month, half of what it shipped last September. [1]
Wheat futures in Chicago, the world's benchmark price for wheat bought for later delivery, have risen about 40% from their June lows to a three-and-a-half-year high. [1]
Many importers held off buying for months, hoping Russia and Ukraine would agree to let grain ships through. [1] Their stocks are now running thin, especially in Asia. [1]
Indonesia, the world's second-biggest wheat importer, got about 60,000 tonnes from the Black Sea this month, against half a million tonnes last September. [1]
Indonesian millers now pay 20% to 25% more for Australian wheat than they paid for their Black Sea cargoes. [1] Some are buying small container loads instead of whole ships. [1]
In Vietnam, the milling company Golden Wheat lost four Black Sea cargoes, about a fifth of what it uses in a year. [2] It found wheat from Bulgaria to replace two of them. [2]
Egypt, the world's biggest wheat buyer, imported 143,870 tonnes in the first half of September, against 876,139 tonnes a year earlier. [1] Its supply minister says it is turning to France and other European sellers. [1]
Many Egyptian mills are running at 30% of capacity, an Alexandria trader said, because a shipping deal could cut prices by up to a fifth. [1]
The grain exists. The US agriculture department projects Russia's and Ukraine's combined wheat stocks at a 33-year high. [6]
Wheat is only about a tenth of what a British loaf costs to make, and energy and other bakery costs also push the bread price up. [7]

Russian wheat exports, September 20255 m tonnes

Russian wheat exports, September 2026 (estimate)1 m tonnes

Russia's wheat exports this September, on Kpler's estimate, next to the same month last year.

Who is involved

Egypt's government

the world's biggest wheat buyer; its supply minister, Sherif Farouk, says it is turning to France and other European sellers
Indonesia's flour millers

buyers for the world's second-biggest wheat importer; paying 20% to 25% more for Australian and Argentine wheat
Golden Wheat

a flour milling company in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; lost four Black Sea cargoes this summer
Kpler

a company that tracks commodity shipments; its figures show Black Sea wheat exports falling to a fraction of last year
Russia and Ukraine

two of the world's biggest wheat sellers, at war; their attacks on each other's ships and ports have stalled the trade

How it unfolded

July attacks on ships and ports bring Black Sea grain cargoes near a standstill [1]
June to September Chicago wheat futures climb about 40% to a three-and-a-half-year high [1]
20 September Egypt's supply minister says the country is turning to France and other European sellers [1]
23 September officials change entry checks on the Danube to cut a two-week queue of ships for Ukraine's river ports [3]
End of the year the Southern Hemisphere harvest arrives, and traders expect buyers to compete hard for cargoes until then [1]

Where this points

Watch for any grain-shipping agreement between Russia and Ukraine before the Southern Hemisphere harvest at the end of the year; one trader said a deal could cut prices by $50 to $60 a tonne. [1]

What is pushing on the whole day

The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.

Grain ships held up High→

Attacks on ships have kept most Black Sea grain in port since July. [1] Ships waiting to enter the Danube river, Ukraine's other way out, have queued for more than two weeks. [3] The EBRD, a development bank, says Ukraine could lose $5.5 billion of exports this year. [4]

Food getting dearer Building↑

Wheat bought in Asia now costs about a quarter more than before the crisis. [1] In Sudan, a litre of cooking oil went from 17,000 pounds to 23,000 in one week. [8] Researchers say potatoes and chocolate could cost more in Britain this winter. [7]

Weather against the harvest Building↑

Forecasters give a more than 90% chance that this El Nino, a warming of the tropical Pacific, will be the strongest on record. [10] A very dry summer may leave Europe's potato harvest 3.5 million tonnes short. [7] Hurricane Lowell hit farms in Hawaii hard. [12]

Less money for help Building↑

US cuts to food stamps are reaching families, like a North Carolina teacher who lost hers this summer. [13] Aid from the richest donor countries fell 23% in 2025, the biggest drop on record. [15]

The rest of the day

11 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

02
Ukraine's river route gets a faster gate

Ukraine now sends most of its grain through three ports on the Danube river, because Russian attacks have in effect shut its Black Sea ports. [3] Those sea ports used to handle 90% of its exports. [3] Ships waiting to enter the Sulina Canal, the Danube's way in from the sea, have queued for more than two weeks. [3] Shippers said on Wednesday that officials will start clearing ships while they are still at sea, not inside the canal. [3] Shipping grain from the Danube to Egypt cost about $105 a tonne on 11 September, against $30 in July. [3]

Danube to Egypt, 11 July$30 a tonne
Danube to Egypt, 11 September$105 a tonne
What it cost to ship a tonne of grain from Ukraine's Danube ports to Egypt, before and after the Black Sea ports closed.

Why it matters — Delivery from Ukraine to Egypt, a big buyer, has stretched from 12 days to more than a month, shippers say. [3] Ukraine has exported about 930,000 tonnes of grain so far this September, against 1.78 million tonnes in the same days last year. [3]
03
A development bank cuts its forecast again

The EBRD, a development bank that covers 41 mostly emerging economies, now expects them to grow 2.5% this year. [4] That is its second cut in a row. [4] Its chief economist, Beata Javorcik, named diesel, wheat and the cost of borrowing as the pressure points. [4] She said world wheat prices are up about 30% since February, as attacks cut Ukraine's exports to their lowest since April 2022. [4]

Why it matters — The bank says Ukraine could lose $5.5 billion of wheat, seed-oil and metal exports this year, about 2.5% of its economy. [4] Farmers who cannot sell may not afford fertiliser for the next planting, and countries such as Egypt that pay part of the bread price face a bigger bill. [4]
04
Sudan's pound loses nearly half its value

In the parts of Sudan its army holds, the Sudanese pound has lost nearly half its value since early summer. [8] It traded at about 7,500 to the dollar on the black market on Tuesday, against 4,100 in May and about 600 before the war. [8] The army and a paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces, have been at war for nearly three and a half years. [8] Importers buy fuel and wheat with black-market dollars. [8] A litre of cooking oil went from 17,000 pounds to 23,000 in one week. [8]

Before the war600 pounds per dollar
May 20264,100 pounds per dollar
This week, black market7,500 pounds per dollar
How many Sudanese pounds one US dollar costs in the army-held areas.

Why it matters — Much of the gold, livestock and oilseeds that earn Sudan dollars comes from areas the paramilitaries hold, where the pound has stayed near 4,200. [8] A school head in Omdurman says his monthly pay, once worth $800, is now worth about $70. [8]
05
Olive trees torn out before the West Bank harvest

Israel's military uprooted Palestinian olive trees with bulldozers in Deir Nizam, a village near Ramallah in the occupied West Bank, on Wednesday. [9] The olive harvest there usually starts in the first week of October. [9] Nather Tamimi, one landowner, said the land he farms with his brothers produces 120 drums of olive oil. [9] The military had not answered Reuters by Wednesday evening. [9] In the past it has said it clears trees to prevent ambushes on its troops. [9]

Why it matters — Farming is about 8% of the Palestinian economy and more than 60,000 jobs, and olives are its backbone, according to the Palestinian agriculture ministry. [9] Palestinian human rights groups say uprooting the trees takes away farmers' income. [9]
06
Southern Africa has weeks before planting

Sea temperatures in the middle of the tropical Pacific were about 2.9C above normal in early September, climate scientist Zeke Hausfather wrote in the journal Nature. [10] That is more than 1C warmer than at the same point in the strong El Nino years of 1997 and 2015. [10] El Nino brings drought to some regions and floods to others. [10] Forecasts give a more than 90% chance this one will be the strongest since records began in the 1870s. [10]

80 of 100
chance in 100 of a dry rainy season in southern Africa, in the strongest El Nino years
In the four strongest El Ninos since 1980, the chance of a below-normal December-to-February rainy season in southern Africa was about 80 in 100.

Why it matters — In the four strongest El Ninos from 1980 to 2016, southern Africa had about an 80% chance of a drier than normal rainy season. [10] South Africa's maize harvest fell by nearly half in 2015-16, and planting there starts in October. [10]
07
Europe's potato harvest comes up short

Potato harvests in Britain and Europe could be 3.5 million tonnes lower than expected after an extremely dry summer, an article in The Conversation says, citing recent reports. [7] That is about 5kg for every person on the continent. [7] Potatoes need a lot of water, and people buy about the same amount whatever the price, so a smaller crop tends to push prices up. [7] Leafy greens also suffered, and UK wheat yields fell well below recent averages. [7]

Why it matters — Cocoa is also expected to rise again after a poor crop this year, and a bar of Dairy Milk rose more than 60% in price compared with 2021. [7] Chocolate makers may swap cocoa butter for cheaper fats such as palm oil. [7]
08
US dairy fees stop paying for climate goals

The US agriculture department said on 17 September that dairy checkoff money will no longer fund environmental, social and governance projects. [11] A checkoff is a compulsory charge on farmers that pays for promotion, research and nutrition education for their product. [11] The Innovation Center for US Dairy, set up with that money, had set greenhouse-gas and net-zero targets. [11] The department also told its marketing service to check that no other checkoff pays for such goals. [11]

Why it matters — Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said farmers' fees should build demand for their products, not what she called radical climate agendas. [11] The department still allows checkoff money for office work that does not serve those goals. [11]
09
Hurricane Lowell hits Hawaii's farms

The US agriculture department said on 23 September that farms in Hawaii were badly hit by Hurricane Lowell. [12] It pointed farmers to its disaster programmes, which pay for livestock that died, lost feed, damaged beehives and fruit trees that need replanting. [12] Farmers have until 1 March 2027 to report this year's livestock and feed losses. [12] Claims to replant trees must be filed within 90 days. [12]

Why it matters — Farmers in counties declared disaster areas can also get emergency loans at low interest. [12] The department's notice gives no estimate of the damage. [12]
10
US food-aid cuts reach families

Cuts to SNAP, the US food-stamp programme, are reaching families before the US midterm elections, the New York Times reports. [13] The cuts came in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, President Trump's main tax-and-spending law, whose spending and tax breaks total more than $3 trillion. [13] Ashley Whitlock, a substitute teacher in Belmont, North Carolina, lost her SNAP benefits in the summer. [13] A free grocery store in Newark, New Jersey, could help people who were cut off. [13]

Why it matters — The law cut food aid, Medicaid and health subsidies to pay for part of its tax cuts. [13] So people judge it by whether they got a tax cut or lost a benefit. [13]
11
California grape growers cannot sell their crop

It is harvest time in California's wine country, and many grape growers are struggling to sell their grapes because Americans are drinking less wine, AP reports. [14] Some growers are tearing out vineyards their families have farmed for generations. [14]

Why it matters — The fall in wine drinking reaches the farm at harvest, when growers find no buyer for grapes already on the vine. [14]
12
Himalayan flood warnings lose their money

A satellite programme that helped Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan watch for floods and landslides lost its funding when the US cut foreign aid, AP reports. [15] SERVIR-Hindu Kush Himalaya was run by USAID, NASA and a research centre in Kathmandu, and ended in January 2025. [15] The US State Department says its tools still work through that centre. [15] A new report by the consultancy Systemiq says Himalayan glaciers are losing ice 65% faster than a decade ago. [15]

Why it matters — The research centre, ICIMOD, says the changing mountains put food, water and energy at risk for nearly 2 billion people living in or below them. [15] Aid from the richest donor countries fell 23% in 2025, the largest drop on record. [15]

02 Lesson why it matters

Why wheat can jump 40% and a loaf of bread barely moves

Wheat is about a tenth of what a loaf costs to make, so a food sold closer to how it was grown passes on more of a crop's price rise.

The twist

The closer a food is to the field when it is bought, the more of a crop's price rise the buyer pays. A loaf is mostly the cost of milling, baking and selling, so its price moves a little. A potato is mostly potato, so its price moves a lot.

The picture

Wheat10%
Milling, power, baking, wages and the shop90%

Roughly what goes into the cost of a British loaf. If wheat costs 40% more and nothing else changes, the loaf costs about 4% more to make.

How it works

Wheat is traded worldwide, so blocked ships lift its price for every buyer
A flour mill buys the grain and feels the full rise
A baker then pays for power, ovens, wages and the shop
Wheat is about a tenth of what it costs to make a British loaf
So a big jump in wheat becomes a small rise in bread
Foods sold close to how they were grown pass on more of the jump

The same force, elsewhere today

Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

Europe's potato harvest comes up short

A potato reaches the shop almost as it was dug, so a crop 3.5 million tonnes short goes nearly straight into what shoppers pay for potatoes.
Sudan's pound loses nearly half its value

Importers buy wheat and fuel with black-market dollars, so each fall in the pound goes straight into the price of the goods they bring in.
A development bank cuts its forecast again

Egypt pays part of the price of bread, so dearer wheat lands on Egypt's budget before it reaches the shopper.

Where you've seen this

Petrol and plane tickets

Crude oil is a big part of what petrol costs, so pump prices follow oil within weeks; it is a smaller part of a plane ticket.

Coffee in a cafe

The beans in a cafe coffee cost little next to rent and wages, so a bean shortage shows up on a bag of beans before it shows up on a cafe menu.

Gold coins and gold rings

A coin is almost all gold and tracks the gold price; a ring is part gold and part the jeweller's work.

The catch

Small shares add up. When wheat, diesel and borrowing all rise at once, as the EBRD says they are now, bread does get dearer.

And the whole of it

The blocked ships reach a flour mill in Indonesia first, as a cargo that costs a quarter more. They reach a shopper in Britain last, as a small rise in the price of a loaf, and nothing on the label says why.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

Russia and Ukraine hold more wheat than at any time in 33 years, but attacks on ships since July keep most of it in port. So flour mills in Indonesia, Vietnam and Egypt are paying about a quarter more for wheat from Australia, Argentina and France, and the cost reaches the poorest wheat-importing countries first.

Who gains

Wheat exporters in Australia and Argentina — Indonesian millers are paying them 20% to 25% more than they paid for Black Sea wheat. [1]
France and other European wheat sellers — Egypt, the world's biggest buyer, says it is turning to them instead of Russia and Ukraine. [1]
US dairy farmers who pay the checkoff — Their compulsory fee will no longer pay for the dairy Innovation Center's net-zero projects, which Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins says raise their costs. [11]
The Rapid Support Forces in Sudan — They hold areas that produce much of the gold, livestock and oilseeds that earn dollars, and the pound there has stayed near 4,200. [8]
Americans who got the new US tax breaks — The same law that cut food stamps gave larger tax refunds and breaks on tips and overtime pay. [13]

Who pays

Flour mills in South-east Asia and their customers — Wheat for October costs about 25% more, and one mill said it cannot pass all of that on to its flour buyers. [1]
Ukraine's farmers — The EBRD says Ukraine could lose $5.5 billion of exports this year, and farmers who cannot sell may not afford fertiliser. [4]
People in army-held Sudan — A school head's monthly pay, once worth $800, is now worth about $70, and cooking oil rose by about a third in a week. [8]
Olive farmers at Deir Nizam in the West Bank — Their trees were uprooted days before the harvest; one family's land produced 120 drums of oil. [9]
California grape growers — With Americans drinking less wine, some are tearing out vineyards their families farmed for generations. [14]
People cut off from US food stamps — A substitute teacher in North Carolina lost her benefits this summer, among families losing aid under the new law. [13]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

01

Whether Russia and Ukraine will agree anything that lets grain ships sail again, and when.

Importers have been waiting for exactly that since July, and one Egyptian trader says a deal could cut prices by $50 to $60 a tonne. [1] No talks on grain shipping are named in any of today's reports.
02

How much grain Russia is really sending abroad.

Kpler puts Russia's September wheat exports at about 1 million tonnes. [1] Sovecon, another consultancy, puts all Russian grain at 2.45 million tonnes, and Russia's agriculture minister says there are no export problems at all. [5] They count different things, and none of the figures can be checked from outside.
03

How long Egypt and other importers can keep waiting.

Some importers say their stocks last until November or the end of the year. [1] Egypt's official data show its imports, and none of today's reports gives a figure for the wheat it holds. [1]
04

Why Israel's military uprooted the olive trees at Deir Nizam.

The military had not answered Reuters by Wednesday evening. [9] In the past it has said it clears trees to prevent ambushes on its troops, and Palestinian rights groups reject that. [9]
05

How far Sudan's pound will fall.

The central bank no longer updates the official exchange rate. [8] It went from 4,100 to the dollar in May to about 7,500 this week. [8]
06

Whether southern Africa's governments act before planting starts in October.

Zeke Hausfather writes in Nature that they have only weeks to hand out drought-tolerant seed. [10] His piece names no government that has started.
07

How much damage Hurricane Lowell did to Hawaii's farms.

The US agriculture department says farms were significantly impacted but gives no estimate of losses. [12]
08

What the dairy checkoff money will pay for instead.

The department's notice ends funding for climate and governance projects but names no sum and no new use for the money. [11]

04 Hope carry this

Officials have changed the entry rules at the mouth of the Danube, so ships bound for Ukraine's river ports are cleared while still at sea, to end a queue that had passed two weeks.

Also true today

About 5 million of the 14 million people driven from their homes by Sudan's war have gone back, the International Organization for Migration says.
Average inflation across the 41 economies the EBRD covers has settled at about 6%, a gentler rise than the bank had feared.