Food, in brief

Brazil chooses its president on Sunday 4 October, and almost 159 million people can vote. [2]

The front-runners are President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 80, on the left, and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, on the right. [2]

Flavio is the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro, the former president now serving a 27-year sentence for a failed coup plot. [4]

Polls put both men at about 40%, with Lula slightly ahead, so a run-off on 25 October is likely. [3]

Brazil holds about 60% of the Amazon, the world's largest rainforest. [1]

Clearing of the Amazon rose about 60% under Jair Bolsonaro, from 2019 to 2022, and more than 45,000 square kilometres were cut. [1]

Under Lula it has fallen 45%, to its lowest level in more than a decade. [1]

Flavio Bolsonaro promises to end illegal clearing by 2029. [1] Lula aims for zero net clearing by 2030, so any forest cut would have to be grown back elsewhere. [1]

Experts warn he could keep that promise while making more clearing legal. [1] At a rally in June he promised easier licences for farming, cattle ranching and mining. [1]

He has courted farmers and says he will cut rules to get the state off farmers' backs. [3]

In 2019 Flavio Bolsonaro co-sponsored a bill to end the rule that Amazon landowners keep 80% of their native plants. [1] Farm business leaders opposed it, fearing buyers abroad would turn away from Brazilian soy and beef, and it was dropped. [1]

Brazil also elects all 513 members of its lower house and 54 of its 81 senators. [2] Farm business holds much sway in that Congress. [1]

Why it matters. Brazil counts its electronic votes within hours, so Sunday night shows whether there is a run-off. [5] If there is, watch whether Flavio Bolsonaro says before 25 October if he would keep fines for clearing seen by satellite. [1]

From 1 October, China charges an extra 55% tariff on Brazilian beef, on top of its usual rate, its commerce ministry said. [7] In January China gave each big supplier a yearly allowance and set the 55% charge on beef above it. [7] Brazil's allowance was 1.1 million tonnes, and China is the biggest buyer of its beef. [7] Brazil asked to use Uruguay's unused allowance, but industry insiders say China has not agreed. [7]

Why it matters. Abiec, the group for Brazil's beef exporters, expects Brazil's beef exports to fall 10% this year. [7] Whoever wins Sunday's vote inherits the wait to see whether China renews the allowances for 2027. [7]

Brazil's sugar mills will let the weather, not the price, decide how much sugar they make until the harvest ends in December, analysts told Reuters. [8] Brazil is the world's largest sugar producer, and its mills can turn cane into sugar or into ethanol, a fuel. [8] Sugar prices rose more than 21% in August, and sugar now pays about 20% more than ethanol. [8] But parts of the sugar belt had the wettest winter in more than 100 years, and wet cane holds less sugar. [8]

Why it matters. Each extra percentage point of cane sent to sugar adds about 750,000 tonnes to world supply, so buyers everywhere watch the choice. [8] StoneX, a broker, now expects Brazil's main region to make no more than 38 million tonnes, below the 40 million first expected. [8]

The US held 2.10 billion bushels of last year's corn on 1 September, 35% more than a year earlier, the US agriculture department's statistics service said on 30 September. [9] Corn stored off farms rose 44%. [9] Stored soybeans were down 3%. [9] All wheat in store fell 14%, and wheat held on farms fell 21%. [9]

Why it matters. The count lands as US Midwest farmers start harvesting an estimated 20 billion bushels of corn and soybeans by the end of November. [11] So the new corn arrives on top of a bigger pile of old corn, while wheat is the crop in shorter supply. [9]

In August, US farmers were paid 2.0% less for what they sold than a year earlier, the statistics service said on 29 September. [10] What they paid for supplies, interest, taxes and wages was 5.3% higher. [10] From July to August, diesel, hay and animal feed got dearer, while nitrogen fertiliser and young cattle got cheaper. [10] The ratio between the two measures fell to 85, from 91 a year before. [10]

Why it matters. Livestock prices were 8.5% lower than a year ago, while crop prices were 6.2% higher. [10] So the fall in income lands on cattle, pig and dairy farms more than on grain farms. [10]

In September, four of the five US states where diesel rose most were in the Midwest: Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and Indiana. [11] There it cost more than $3 a gallon above a year ago. [11] A flood and a power cut shut ExxonMobil's refinery at Joliet, Illinois, for over a week. [11] A six-month union dispute also continues at BP's Whiting refinery in Indiana. [11] The Midwest has few refineries and cannot easily bring in fuel by tanker, so it struggles to replace what is lost. [11]

Why it matters. Estimates say the dearer fuel adds about $12,500 to the cost of harvesting every 1,000 acres. [11] Joe Hamilton, who farms 2,500 acres in Indiana, expects to burn about 9,000 gallons of diesel in this harvest. [11]

England's Environment Agency, which licenses who may take water from rivers, will let farmers with winter licences refill their reservoirs from 1 to 31 October. [12] Reservoirs in England are usually about 74% full now, but Ardingly in West Sussex is at 23% and Wimbleball in Somerset at 21%. [12] September brought 65% of the usual rain. [12] The window does not cover the main salmon rivers or places where spray irrigation is already restricted. [12]

Why it matters. Anglian Water, which supplies about seven million people in the East of England, warned on 2 October that the drought could last into 2027. [13] Its Grafham Water reservoir is 60% full, and some rivers it pumps from are too low to use. [13]

A committee of British MPs has opened a survey of farmers about the Sustainable Farming Incentive, England's scheme that pays farmers for work such as caring for hedges and soil. [14] Its second round of applications closed in less than six hours, on a first come, first served basis. [14] About 12,200 applications went in, worth about 20,700 pounds each on average, from a pot of 253 million pounds. [14] The survey closes on 16 October. [14]

Why it matters. About 21,300 farm businesses have nature agreements ending by February 2027, but only about 8,800 of them applied, the consultancy GSC Grays says. [14] It warns that land now kept for wildlife and soil could go back to more intensive farming. [14]

England's first Environmental Delivery Plan, proposed for Norfolk, would let house builders pay a flat fee instead of offsetting the water pollution new homes add. [15] Natural England, the English government's nature agency, would charge about 2,675 pounds a home and spend the money on conservation. [15] Today builders mostly buy credits from farmers, who change how they use land so less nitrate and phosphate reach rivers. [15]

Why it matters. The Environmental Farmers Group, which has more than 650 farmers, says private credits cost 3,500 to 9,000 pounds a home, so the fee could undercut them. [15] The head of the ecologists' professional body says only about a third of the plan's measures directly cut pollution. [15]

A 238-foot ship set sail on Saturday to put back the first of a network of deep-sea monitors that the US government had begun removing. [16] The 368 million dollar network of about 900 instruments sat off Oregon, Washington, Alaska and North Carolina, and between Greenland and Iceland. [16] Its data serves weather forecasters, climate scientists and the fishing industry. [16] The National Science Foundation began taking it out in late 2025, though it was built to run 15 more years. [16]

Why it matters. Scientists, fishermen and Congress all pushed back, and Congress forced the restoration. [16] The data matters more as a powerful El Nino, a warming of the Pacific that shifts weather, builds and affects fisheries. [16]

The FAO, the UN's food and farming agency, launched a call to action on dryland forests during World Forest Week in Rome. [17] Forests and trees in dry regions support the food and income of more than two billion people, it says. [17] Drylands cover about 41% of Earth's land and hold 27% of its forests. [17] About a quarter of dryland forest is already damaged, mostly as land is turned into farms and towns or over-used. [17]

Why it matters. These trees feed herders' animals and give the poorest families fuel, wild food and income when crops fail. [17] The FAO proposes a new support scheme to help countries find long-term money and plan for these forests. [17]

Atmonia, an Icelandic company, is scaling up a way to make ammonia, which farms use as nitrogen fertiliser, from nitrogen and water in one step. [18] The usual method first makes hydrogen and runs in huge plants that give off a lot of carbon. [18] Atmonia aims for a unit the size of a shipping container that makes about 150 tonnes of ammonia a year. [18] Its catalysts are made of common materials, its chief executive says. [18]

Why it matters. The company wants to sell to a small-scale market that brings fertiliser making to the farmer. [18] Its process has not yet been run at this size, and the next step is a cell 40 times larger. [18]