Money, in brief

Kalshi and Polymarket are apps where people put money on whether something will happen, from a football result to a word the US president might say. [8][14]

The companies say this is not gambling. They list each bet as an event contract, a kind of financial contract that US law calls a swap. [2][6]

That puts them under the CFTC, the US federal agency that oversees futures and similar contracts, instead of state gambling regulators. [7][4]

So people can bet on sports in states where sports betting is still illegal. Traditional sports betting is legal in 39 states and Washington DC. [10][3]

The platforms also skip state and tribal licences and gambling taxes. Anyone aged 18 can trade, while some states set the gambling age at 21. [6]

Most users lose. Kalshi told The Wall Street Journal it had 2.9 losing users for every winning one in April. [7]

A Wall Street Journal analysis found 0.1% of Polymarket accounts took 67% of the profits. The winners are often firms that pay for live data feeds, servers and AI bots. [8]

One Detroit man turned about $2,000 into $41,000 on Kalshi. He then lost all of it on one bet that a celebrity would say a word on TV. [9]

Twenty states are in court over whether their gambling laws apply. In July, 44 states signed a letter calling the platforms a new form of casino. [1]

The Trump administration backs the platforms. Its CFTC sued Illinois, Connecticut and Arizona in April, and then Minnesota, the first state to ban prediction markets. [2][3]

The courts disagree. A US appeals court ruled 2 to 1 in April that New Jersey cannot stop Kalshi's sports contracts. A Nevada judge found the same contracts indistinguishable from state-regulated sports betting. [4][3]

A Brookings paper says the contracts also go around the deals that US tribal governments signed to run casinos, which pay for their public services. [13]

Why it matters. The next test is whether the split between the courts reaches the US Supreme Court, which a Georgia State University professor who studies financial rules expects some of these cases to do. [2]

The average rate on a 30-year fixed US mortgage reached 7.07% on 10 September, the highest since May 2025, according to Mortgage News Daily. [17] Freddie Mac, a US government-backed mortgage company, put that week's average lower, at 6.76%. [17] The Wall Street Journal links the rise to the Middle East war and high energy prices. [17] The US central bank held its rate at 3.5% to 3.75% in July, and many experts expect a quarter-point rise at its next meeting, the first since July 2023. [18][17]

Why it matters. On a $350,000 loan, the gap between a 5.98% rate and a 6.63% rate is more than $53,000 of interest over 30 years. [17] A rise reaches people buying or refinancing now. People already on a fixed rate keep theirs.

UK inflation rose to 2.9% in the year to July, up from 2.6% the month before, which the national statistics office put down to energy costs. [18] The Bank of England, the UK's central bank, has held its main rate at 3.75% at each of its five decisions so far in 2026. [18] The average new two-year fixed mortgage cost 5.62% on 30 July, up from 4.83% at the start of March, Moneyfacts says. [18] The Bank of England expects about 1.3 million UK homeowners to face higher payments by the end of 2028 because of the war. [19]

Why it matters. About 87% of UK mortgage holders are on fixed deals, so a higher rate reaches them when their deal ends. [18] About 800,000 fixed deals at 3% or less are expected to end every year until the end of 2027. [18]

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation, a UK anti-poverty charity, has surveyed low-income families since 2021. [23] Its summer 2026 survey found 62% could not afford at least one essential in the last six months, about 7.4 million families and the most it has recorded. [23] About 4.5 million are behind on at least one bill or debt repayment. [23] About 1.3 million used loan sharks, payday lenders, doorstep lenders or pawnbrokers to pay for essentials in May, a number that is rising again. [23]

Why it matters. The number going without has grown fastest among groups that used to be less likely to: people who own their home outright, childless households and people over 65. [23] One number fell: families unable to keep their home warm dropped by more than half a million in two years, to 2.4 million in May. [23]

Energy prices for millions of UK households will rise by nearly 4% in October. [24] Cornwall Insight, an energy consultancy, forecasts a further 9% rise in January. [24] Suppliers estimate unpaid energy bills and charges at about 6bn pounds, and expect 7bn pounds by the end of the year. [24] Andy Burnham, the new UK prime minister, announced that VAT will come off household electricity bills for a time from 1 October. [23] The price of gas has risen 8%, more than the electricity saving. [24]

Why it matters. Customers who pay every three months instead of by monthly direct debit already pay about 150 pounds a year towards other people's energy debts. [24] The Joseph Rowntree Foundation says the VAT cut gives its largest cash savings to higher-income households. [23]

The Bank of England looked at US household debt in its July report on risks to the financial system. [29] About 13% of US credit card accounts were more than 90 days behind in the first three months of 2026, a share that has risen quickly. [29] The share still behind but not yet written off by lenders was about 4% at the end of 2025, near its long-run average. [29] The US central bank said in May that card and car loan delinquencies stay high compared with the past decade. [31]

Why it matters. The Wall Street Journal describes a hospital manager earning $194,000 whose $572 minimum payment barely touched a $15,000 balance at 26% interest. [30] Most US household debt is still owed by borrowers with strong credit scores, the US central bank says. [31]

Companies that track repossessions estimate that lenders took back more than 3 million US cars in 2025, NPR's Planet Money reports. [27] That is about as many as during the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009. [27] Last autumn, 6.6% of subprime borrowers, people with weak credit scores, were at least two months behind on car payments. [27] Federal Reserve economists found 3.88% of US car loan balances at least 30 days late in the third quarter of 2025, the highest in 15 years. [28]

Why it matters. Record car prices and rising costs for repairs and insurance have stacked up on car owners. [36] In most US states a lender does not have to warn a borrower before it takes the car. [36]

Buy Here Pay Here dealers sell used cars and lend buyers the money themselves, often to people with poor credit or no credit history. [25] A US Federal Reserve study published in May found their loan balances grew 214% since 2018, against 34% for other car lending. [25] They charge higher rates, often set weekly payments and repossess cars more often than other lenders. [25] The study found more than $2 billion in loan commitments to these dealers from the largest US banks. [25]

Why it matters. Borrowers with credit scores below 600 pay an average rate of about 20% a year on a car loan, Experian data shows. [26] Weekly payments give a borrower more chances to miss one. [25]

A New York Federal Reserve report found that in US states where sports betting is legal, missed payments on credit cards and car loans rose about 0.3% overall. [16] Among people who started betting after their state legalised it, serious delinquencies rose by more than 10%. [16] A separate 2025 study found a 10% rise in the likelihood of bankruptcy in states that allowed betting online. [16] Bettors more than doubled their spending, from under $500 a quarter in December 2019 to over $1,000 by June 2021. [16]

Why it matters. Christopher Welsh, research director at a Maryland centre on problem gambling, says the calls it gets are now almost all about online sports betting. [16] Prediction markets now offer the same kind of sports bet in states where betting is still banned. [3]

Kalshi and Polymarket, the two biggest prediction markets, added new trading bans on 23 March. [15] Kalshi barred political candidates from trading on their own races, and athletes from trading on their own sports. [15] Polymarket said users may not trade where they hold confidential information or can change the result. [15] Polymarket had been criticised after some users made large, well-timed bets before US military action in Iran and Venezuela. [15][8]

Why it matters. The bans came the day two US senators proposed a bill to stop sports contracts on these platforms, and shares in the sportsbook DraftKings rose. [15][12] The bans are rules the companies wrote themselves. [15]

Australia's government guarantees home loans for first-time buyers who have saved only 5% of the price, so they avoid paying for lenders' mortgage insurance. [21] After Labor removed the income caps on 1 October, the scheme backed 39,704 loans by 30 April. [21] Of those, 13,979 went to buyers earning more than the old caps of A$125,000 for a single person or A$200,000 for a couple. [21] All first-time buyers together took out about 10,181 loans a month from October to March, less than 3% more than in the six months before. [21]

Why it matters. Economist Saul Eslake says the scheme mostly helped people who would have bought anyway, and let them borrow more. [21] Prices of homes under the scheme's price caps rose much faster once it was expanded, property data firm Cotality found. [21]

Australia's housing market has entered a downturn after the Reserve Bank, Australia's central bank, raised rates three times in a row. [22] The average new home loan rate is now above 6% a year. [22] First-home loan applications fell 13.4% in May from a year earlier, credit agency Equifax reported. [22] The May federal budget stopped investors who buy existing homes from deducting rental losses from their other income. Investor loans fell by a fifth from the budget to mid-June, the bank Westpac said. [22]

Why it matters. Prices for the most expensive quarter of Sydney homes fell by about A$90,000 in three months. [22] A Brisbane buyers' agent says first-time buyers back off when prices fall. [22]

The Bank of Canada, the country's central bank, kept its main rate at 2.25% on 2 September, its seventh hold in a row. [20] Variable mortgage rates in Canada have stayed around 3.4% as a result. [20] Full-time employment rose by about 193,000 from April to July, and inflation without petrol held at 2.2% for three months. [20] The Trump administration announced 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods on 22 August, due to start on 1 January 2027. [20]

Why it matters. NerdWallet Canada says the tariffs put auto jobs in Ontario and factory jobs in Quebec at risk. [20] Those are the two provinces where home sales have held up best this year. [20]

A 2025 Gallup poll found 42% of Americans aged 18 to 29 look for money advice on social media, nearly double the share of those aged 30 to 49. [32] Many of these finfluencers, people who post money tips online, have no financial qualifications. [32] Some are paid by credit card and fintech companies, and the sponsorship is not always easy to spot. [32] FINRA, which oversees US brokerage firms, found social media users rate their investing knowledge higher but score worse on a test. [33]

Why it matters. Fidelity credits these influencers in part for a 73% rise in Gen Z contributions to Roth IRAs, a US retirement account, in the second quarter of 2026. [33] One stock picker told the Wall Street Journal he uses rage-bait lines to get views. [37]

A 401(k) is a US workplace retirement account. [34] In August 2025 President Trump ordered the US Labor Department to look again at letting these plans offer funds with private equity, private credit or crypto. [34] In March 2026 the department proposed a rule listing six things a plan manager should weigh: performance, fees, how easily it sells, valuation, benchmarks and complexity. [34] A manager who follows that process would be presumed prudent, which protects them from lawsuits. [34][35]

Why it matters. Private assets are hard to sell quickly, hard to price and disclose less than listed shares, Brookings notes. [34] The rule protects the employer that picks the funds. The savings at risk belong to the workers. [34]