Money, in brief

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the trade group for US home lenders, forecast on Sunday that 30-year home loan rates will stay above 7% through the end of 2027. [1][2]

Its chief economist, Mike Fratantoni, gave the forecast at the group's yearly convention in Chicago. He expects the rate to average 7.3% in the last three months of 2026. [1][2]

Freddie Mac, a US government-backed company that buys home loans, put last week's average rate at 7.40%, the highest in three years. [2]

Rates have climbed since late February, when the war with Iran pushed up oil prices and inflation, the general rise in prices. [2][7] On the measure used by Bankrate, a US personal finance website, the rate was 6.09% at its lowest this year. [3]

In September the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, raised its main rate for the first time in three years, to between 3.75% and 4%. [6][8]

Fratantoni expects two more quarter-point rises, one in December and one early in 2027. [1][2]

Lenders are also charging more above what the US government pays to borrow for ten years. That gap is about 2.2 percentage points, against 2 earlier this year, because investors now fear bigger swings. [1]

At a 7.53% rate, the loan payment on a typical US home, with a fifth paid up front, is $2,407 a month. That is about 27% of a typical family's income, Bankrate worked out. [3]

The MBA expects lenders to make 5% less in home loans in 2027, $1.99 trillion, and 17% less in refinancing. [1]

Only about one US home loan in five carries a rate above 6%, so few owners gain anything by refinancing at 7% to 7.5%, the MBA's Joel Kan said. [1]

Buyers still in the market are turning to adjustable-rate loans, which start cheaper but can rise later. They made almost 10% of applications in the past month. [2]

Higher rates pay savers more: US cash accounts now pay in the mid-3% range, a financial planner wrote in Kiplinger, a US personal finance magazine. [8]

Why it matters. The next test is the US central bank's December meeting, where the MBA expects another quarter-point rise; a pause there would undercut the forecast of rates above 7%. [1]

New York's State Gaming Commission, which licenses gambling in the state, voted unanimously on Friday to propose two rules for online sports betting apps. [9] One would make the apps look into a user's finances when set warning signs appear, such as time on the app jumping by half in a week. [9] The other would bar the apps from using AI to tailor bonuses and bets. [9] The public now has 60 days to comment before a final vote. [9]

Why it matters. New York is the largest US sports betting market. The rules follow a test by ProPublica, a US investigative newsroom. Its reporter lost $1,800 in one night chasing losses, and the next day DraftKings, a big betting app, invited him to try out for its VIP programme. [9][11] A 2024 Connecticut study found that 1.8% of problem gamblers there made up 51% of sports betting revenue. [10]

British banks and building societies told the Bank of England that more credit card loans went unpaid in the three months to August. [12] They expect the number to rise again by the end of November. [12] The Financial Conduct Authority, Britain's financial regulator, warned that some unregulated firms gather struggling people's details through cold calls and adverts, and pass them to firms that sell paid debt help. [13] Some people are steered into plans that charge fees, such as Individual Voluntary Arrangements, a formal deal to repay part of a debt over several years. [13]

Why it matters. More people behind on cards could mean more demand for debt help, the BBC reports. [13] Debt charities such as StepChange give advice for free, while the paid plans take fees from people who are already short of money. [13]

Citizens Advice, a UK charity that helps people with money and legal problems, says roofing made up one in ten of all the scams it recorded in the past year, more than any other kind. [14] Its consumer service had 9,000 complaints about roofing work in the year to August. [14] Of those, 2,205 were suspected scams, up from 2,098 the year before. [14] One woman of 65 was quoted 250 pounds to fix a gutter, then told more work was needed, and paid 3,500 pounds. The next day she could see no work done. [14]

Why it matters. Clare Moriarty, who runs Citizens Advice, said scammers pick roofs because owners cannot easily climb up and check the work. [14] Three in four of the fraudsters used doorstep selling, and both victims named in the BBC's report were in their sixties. [14]

A website called Halloween Nights Fear sold tickets to nine 'scarefest' events in England, Scotland and Wales, set for 20 October to 1 November. [15] Tickets cost 14 to 140 pounds. [15] Cardiff Castle, Bradgate Park in Leicestershire and the body that runs London's buses and trains said the events listed at their sites are fake. [15] Leicestershire Trading Standards, the council team that enforces shopping law, has asked for the site to be taken down. [15]

Why it matters. Bradgate Park's director said he knew of a number of people who had already bought tickets to its fake event. [15] A technology journalist, David McClelland, said the site was among the most convincing fakes he had seen, and was probably built with AI. [15]

The typical asking price for a US home was $419,250 in September, 1.4% lower than a year earlier, said Realtor.com, a property listings website. [16] It was the 11th month in a row that asking prices were down on the year before. [16] In a survey by Neighbors Bank, a US lender, 40% of people buying their first home said a price cut would most help them go ahead. [16] Seven in ten said today's loan rates make every option feel out of reach. [16]

Why it matters. First-time buyers are pushing back: 86% said they were comfortable offering less than the asking price, and 57% had walked away from a home. [16] Lower asking prices help them, while the loan rates in the lead story work against them.

Hargreaves Lansdown, one of Britain's biggest investment platforms, is paying cashback to customers who move money into its accounts between 1 October and 30 November. [17] The top payment is 40,000 pounds. [17] Which?, a UK consumer group, worked out that it needs 1 million pounds in each of four accounts. [17] Cashback is worked out on what is still there on 30 September 2027, and at least 10,000 pounds must remain to get anything. [17]

Why it matters. Few savers have 4 million pounds to move, so most will get a much smaller sum. [17] Which? warns that higher yearly fees on a platform can outweigh a one-off payment. [17]

Daft as a Brush, a Newcastle charity that drives cancer patients to hospital, spends 15,000 pounds a month on diesel, 5,000 more than a year ago. [18] Its 30 vans cover 600,000 miles a year. [18] It had planned to switch them to electric, but says the fuel bill now takes that money. [18] In Middlesbrough, Teesside Minibus Hire signed contracts lasting years, priced on what fuel cost when they were written. [18]

Why it matters. UK diesel recently passed 2 pounds a litre for the first time, the RAC motoring group says. [18] The charity pays from donations with no discount, and the minibus firm says some customers are moving to cheaper unlicensed operators. [18]