Monday, 2 November 2026
Monday, 2 November 2026
- In brief
- 1US pay rises 3.1% in a year, the slowest since 2021 and behind prices, while employers' health insurance costs rise 6.4%
- 2US health plan sign-up opens with ID checks
- 3Tuesday's senators face Social Security's 2032 gap
- 4US officials press betting apps over VIP perks
- 5UK pay-later checks block some shoppers
- 6UK gives no date for equal youth pay
- 7Scammers use leaked birthdays to pose as banks
- 8More Americans borrow against their homes
- TruthThe truth, across the day
2 Nov · Money · In brief
Money · Monday, 2 November 2026
Money, in brief
8 stories · 20 sources
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What is moving · 1 of 4
Health cover costing more
US employers' health insurance costs rose 6.4% in the year to September.
What is moving · 2 of 4
Stricter checks on who gets through
US marketplace buyers who use an agent must now prove who they are.
What is moving · 3 of 4
Fixes put off until later
Social Security could cut pensions by 22% in 2032 unless the US Congress acts first.
What is moving · 4 of 4
Borrowing to get by
UK debt charities see people using pay-later plans for food and energy bills.
Part of the day's signal
One pressure seen across the day runs through Money too.
8 stories
- 1US pay rises 3.1% in a year, the slowest since 2021 and behind prices, while employers' health insurance costs rise 6.4%
- 2US health plan sign-up opens with ID checks
- 3Tuesday's senators face Social Security's 2032 gap
- 4US officials press betting apps over VIP perks
- 5UK pay-later checks block some shoppers
9 sources
Money, in brief
- 1Soaring health insurance costs are quietly preventing wages from rising higher, while workers also shoulder a larger share of premiums, economist says
- 8It's ACA open enrollment time. Here are the changes for health insurance shoppers
- 9Social Security may have to cut retirement benefits in six years. Here's how much money is at stake for beneficiaries
- 10These Senate races may help determine the fate of Social Security
- 12Federal and State Officials Ramp Up Scrutiny of DraftKings, Other Sports Betting Apps
- 15How will Buy Now Pay Later changes affect you?
- 16Buy now, pay later rules finalised - but key protections won't take force until this summer
- 17Labour's pledge to level-up minimum wage for under-20s before next election in doubt
- 20As Rates Rise, Tapping Home Equity Gets Trickier
US pay rises 3.1% in a year, the slowest since 2021 and behind prices, while employers' health insurance costs rise 6.4%
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US wages and salaries rose 3.1% in the year to September, the slowest since early 2021.
Prices rose 3.6% in the same year, so pay bought about 0.6% less.
What employers paid for workers' health insurance rose 6.4% over the year.
Who is involved
US Bureau of Labor Statistics
the US government's job-figures agency; it published the pay figures on Friday
Who is involved
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
part of the Federal Reserve, the US central bank; it surveyed firms on health costs and pay
Why it matters
Workers with plans through work
So workers with health plans through their jobs are getting smaller raises.
Why it matters
Health costs are a big issue in Tuesday's US elections, beside fuel and power bills.
How it works
The index measures total compensation: everything an employer spends on a worker, not just the wage.
How it works
Many firms facing dearer health plans answered with smaller raises, the New York Fed found.
The truth
Berger says the figures may still understate the squeeze, as plans also cover less.
The truth
Nobody yet knows how much of 2027's 8.2% rise employers will pass on to workers.
What comes next
This autumn
workers pick plans
2027
bigger deductions
Many workers pick plans this autumn and will see bigger deductions from their pay in 2027.
What's really going on
In the US, health cover is eating into pay: employers' spending on workers' health insurance rose 6.4% in the year to September, while wages rose 3.1% and prices 3.6%.
Why it works on people
A pay rise that goes up feels like a gain, even in a year when prices and health deductions went up faster.
Who gains
Hospitals, doctors and drug makers
Dearer hospital and doctor care and weight-loss drugs are what push employer health premiums up, insurers' figures show, the New York Fed says.
Who pays
US workers with health plans through work
Firms facing dearer plans gave raises about a point smaller than they otherwise would, the New York Fed found.
Good news
US union workers' pay and benefits rose 4.3% in the year to September, faster than prices.
The short version
That's the story in short.
The whole story has 8 more parts.
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The whole story, in 8 parts ↓
Part 1 of 8 · Who else is involved
Marsh
a firm that advises employers on benefits; it expects health costs per worker to rise 8.2% in 2027
Part 2 of 8 · How it unfolded
Early 2021
the last time US pay grew this slowly
30 October
pay figures show a 3.1% rise against 3.6% prices
Part 3 of 8
The figures come from the Employment Cost Index, which US officials released on Friday.
Part 3 of 8
It is a measure of what employers pay for the same jobs over time.
Part 3 of 8
It counts wages and salaries, and also benefits such as health cover.
Part 3 of 8
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US government's job-figures agency, publishes it four times a year.
Part 4 of 8
Counting wages and benefits together, the cost of employing a worker rose 3.4%.
Part 4 of 8
Benefit costs rose 3.9%, up from 3.6% a year earlier.
Part 4 of 8
Union workers' pay and benefits rose 4.3%, against 3.3% for other workers.
Part 5 of 8
Guy Berger
economist, Burning Glass Institute
Guy Berger, an economist at the Burning Glass Institute, says that pace matches a 20-year high.
Part 5 of 8
Had those costs grown 3%, wages might rise 0.2 to 0.3 points faster, he worked out.
Part 5 of 8
He says workers now pay more of their premiums, the monthly bill for a plan.
Part 6 of 8
A family health plan through work cost about $27,000 in 2025, the New York Fed found.
Part 6 of 8
That is about a year's pay for a full-time worker earning $15 an hour.
Part 6 of 8
The New York Fed is part of the Federal Reserve, the US central bank.
Part 6 of 8
Firms it surveyed that faced dearer health plans raised pay by 3.8% on average.
Part 6 of 8
Without the dearer plans, they said they would have raised it by about 4.7%.
Part 7 of 8
In September, US employers added only 29,000 jobs, and unemployment rose to 4.2%.
Part 7 of 8
Prices have climbed faster since the war with Iran began, and pay has not kept up.
Part 7 of 8
From early 2020 to late 2025, prices rose about 25%, and pay after prices barely moved.
Part 8 of 8
Marsh, a firm that advises employers, expects health costs per worker to rise 8.2% in 2027.
Part 8 of 8
2003
the last rise this big
2027
8.2% expected
That would be the biggest rise since 2003.
Part 8 of 8
2 of 3
large employers raising workers' share
About two-thirds of large employers expect to raise workers' share of premiums next year.
Part 8 of 8
59% of employers plan cost-cutting changes, such as higher deductibles that raise workers' own costs.
7 sources
US pay rises 3.1% in a year, the slowest since 2021 and behind prices, while employers' health insurance costs rise 6.4%
- 1Soaring health insurance costs are quietly preventing wages from rising higher, while workers also shoulder a larger share of premiums, economist says
- 2Wage growth hits 5-year low as American workers find their take-home pay is 'stretched thinner and thinner'
- 3Are Rising Employee Health Insurance Costs Dampening Wage Growth?
- 4Employers Expect Health Benefit Costs to Jump 8.2% in 2027, and the Impact Will Likely Be Felt by Workers, According to Marsh
- 5Job Growth Cools and Unemployment Ticks Higher
- 6How wages compare with inflation since 2020
- 7How to Use the Employment Cost Index for Escalation
The full story
US pay rises 3.1% in a year, the slowest since 2021 and behind prices, while employers' health insurance costs rise 6.4%
US wages and salaries rose 3.1% in the year to September, the slowest since early 2021.
The figures come from the Employment Cost Index, which US officials released on Friday.
Counting wages and benefits together, the cost of employing a worker rose 3.4%.
Guy Berger, an economist at the Burning Glass Institute, says that pace matches a 20-year high.
A family health plan through work cost about $27,000 in 2025, the New York Fed found.
In September, US employers added only 29,000 jobs, and unemployment rose to 4.2%.
Marsh, a firm that advises employers, expects health costs per worker to rise 8.2% in 2027.
Many workers pick plans this autumn and will see bigger deductions from their pay in 2027.
Why it matters. So workers with health plans through their jobs are getting smaller raises.
US health plan sign-up opens with ID checks
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1 November
sign-up opens
15 January
sign-up ends in most states
Sign-up for 2027 marketplace health plans runs from 1 November to 15 January in most states.
The marketplace sells health plans under the Affordable Care Act, often called Obamacare.
Buyers using an agent on the federal site must now approve them with a one-time code.
First-time buyers
People who moved state
Plans of $30 or less
First-time buyers, movers and anyone paying $30 a month or less must also prove their identity.
How it got here
The rules aim to stop fraud, including agents who sign people up without asking.
Now
new agents frozen out
February
new agents allowed
Agents new for 2027 cannot sign anyone up until February, after sign-up ends.
Many legal immigrants, including refugees, can no longer get federal help with premiums.
A 40-year-old's benchmark plan costs $704 a month in 2027, up from $624 in 2026.
Why it matters
1 of 5
buyers who may face extra checks
Joshua Brooker, who runs an insurance agency, fears up to 1 in 5 face extra checks.
Why it matters
He fears some will give up and go without cover.
How it works
In health policy the subsidy is tied to a benchmark: an area's second-cheapest silver plan.
How it works
So when that plan's price rises, most buyers' help rises with it.
The truth
A single person earning over $63,840 gets no help at all.
How it works
Why a stricter check also turns away honest people
How it works
Credit risk analysts call them false approvals and false declines: every check lets some cheats through and stops some honest people.
How it works · step 1 of 6
A check uses clues to guess who is honest
How it works · step 2 of 6
Some honest people look risky, and some cheats look fine
How it works · step 3 of 6
So every check makes two kinds of mistake
How it works · step 4 of 6
Tighten it: fewer cheats pass, more honest people are stopped
How it works · step 5 of 6
Loosen it: more cheats pass, fewer honest people are stopped
How it works · step 6 of 6
Only a better clue cuts both mistakes at once
The twist
Raising the bar on a check stops more cheats. It also stops more honest people, because the clues stay the same; only better information cuts both.
The picture
Moving the bar swaps one mistake for the other. No setting avoids both.
Seen the same day
The US government now makes buyers paying $30 a month or less prove who they are, which catches honest low-cost buyers as well as fake sign-ups.
Seen the same day
Every purchase is now checked, and a non-profit found nearly half of the shoppers likely to fail had never missed a payment.
Seen the same day
People check a caller by whether they know their name and birthday, and once those details leak, the check lets a criminal through.
Seen the same day
DraftKings' check for problem gambling let a reporter who bet like a problem gambler become a VIP, and that miss is what Louisiana and Ohio are now looking at.
The catch
A better clue can cut both mistakes at once, and the firms and agencies running checks rarely publish how many honest people they turn away.
The whole
Everyone in today's stories meets a check from one side: the health-plan buyer, the shopper, the bettor, the person answering the phone.
The whole
The people who set each line choose which mistake to risk, and they are rarely the people it stops.
Who gains
Large insurance call centres
They keep big staffs all year, while agents new for 2027 are frozen out until February, a Florida broker says.
Who pays
Honest US buyers with no credit file or a new address
They can fail the identity questions even though they are real, a Georgetown researcher says.
Nobody knows yet
How fast US marketplace premiums are really rising for 2027.
KFF puts the rise in the benchmark plan at 13%, while a KFF Health News report carried by NPR says premiums are set to rise 15%.
Nobody knows yet
How many honest buyers will give up at the new US sign-up identity checks.
One agent fears up to 1 in 5 buyers who use agents will need extra checks; none of our sources gives an official estimate.
Good news
Most people buying 2027 health plans on the US marketplace will still get a federal subsidy, and it rises when the price of the benchmark plan rises.
The full story
US health plan sign-up opens with ID checks
Sign-up for 2027 marketplace health plans runs from 1 November to 15 January in most states.
Why it matters. Joshua Brooker, who runs an insurance agency, fears up to 1 in 5 face extra checks.
Tuesday's senators face Social Security's 2032 gap
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Social Security, the US state pension, could cut retirement payments by 22% in 2032.
Its retirement trust fund, a store of reserves, is projected to run out then.
78 of 100
of promised payments covered, about 78%
After that, the taxes coming in would cover about 78% of promised payments.
The US Congress's budget office expects it sooner, in mid-2032, with a 26% cut.
A 24% cut would take about $500 a month from the average payment, by one estimate.
3 November
Senate vote
2032
fund runs out
Senators elected on 3 November serve six years, so they will be in office in 2032.
35 Senate seats are being decided.
Candidates in only 9 close races have said what they would do, CNBC found.
Why it matters
81 of 100
voters who favour a plan, 81%
In close Senate states, 81% of voters polled favour a candidate who plans to stop cuts.
How it works
Workers and employers each pay a 6.2% tax on pay up to $184,500 to fund it.
How it works
In pension terms it is pay-as-you-go: once reserves are gone, payments shrink to what comes in.
The truth
A tax expert says payroll tax rises are very unlikely in the next couple of years.
What comes next
2032
retirement fund alone
2034
if the funds are merged
Merging the retirement and disability funds would move the date to 2034, with a 17% cut.
Who pays
Future US pensioners
A 24% cut would take about $500 a month from the average Social Security payment, by one estimate.
Nobody knows yet
When Social Security's reserve actually runs out, and how deep the cut would be.
Its trustees say late 2032 and 22%; the US Congress's budget office says mid-2032 and 26%.
Nobody knows yet
Whether the US Congress fixes Social Security before the reserve runs out.
A tax expert says payroll taxes are very unlikely to rise in the next couple of years, and candidates in only nine close Senate races have given plans.
Part of a signal
Tuesday's US vote and the money riding on it
Seen in 4 of the 12 beats
Also seen in World, Food and Finance.
Farmers have been promised $15 billion before the vote, and state ballots decide who pays some taxes.
The whole signal →3 sources
Tuesday's senators face Social Security's 2032 gap
The full story
Tuesday's senators face Social Security's 2032 gap
Social Security, the US state pension, could cut retirement payments by 22% in 2032.
Why it matters. In close Senate states, 81% of voters polled favour a candidate who plans to stop cuts.
US officials press betting apps over VIP perks
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On 15 October, Louisiana's gaming board put off renewing the licence of DraftKings, a betting app.
15 October
four-month permit
Four months on
investigators report
Instead it got a four-month permit while investigators look into press reports.
How it got here
ProPublica, a US newsroom, had a reporter bet like a problem gambler for weeks.
How it got here
After he lost $1,800 in one night, DraftKings invited him to try for VIP status.
A day after Louisiana's meeting, Ohio's regulators proposed a 48-hour rule.
Apps could not send ads for 48 hours after a user sets limits.
Limits set
the reporter limits his betting
30 minutes later
a betting offer arrives
In ProPublica's test, betting offers arrived 30 minutes after the reporter set his limits.
“does not market to customers based on indicators of potential problem gaming”
DraftKings says it "does not market to customers based on indicators of potential problem gaming."
Why it matters
Three US lawmakers
Betting firms
Three US lawmakers have asked betting firms how many customers are VIPs, and what they earn.
How it works
The industry calls its guardrails responsible gaming: limits and pauses a bettor can switch on.
The truth
The lawmakers say VIP rewards push the most at-risk customers into debt and addiction.
The truth
A former head of a problem-gambling council warns the rule could put people off setting limits.
What comes next
Now
a proposed rule
Next
more hearings and comments
Ohio's rule still faces more public hearings and comments before it can take effect.
How it works
DraftKings' check for problem gambling let a reporter who bet like a problem gambler become a VIP, and that miss is what Louisiana and Ohio are now looking at.
The idea, in story 2: Why a stricter check also turns away honest people →Nobody knows yet
How many DraftKings customers are VIPs, and how much the company earns from them.
Three US lawmakers have asked; DraftKings said it would respond once it had reviewed the letter.
2 sources
US officials press betting apps over VIP perks
The full story
US officials press betting apps over VIP perks
On 15 October, Louisiana's gaming board put off renewing the licence of DraftKings, a betting app.
Why it matters. Three US lawmakers have asked betting firms how many customers are VIPs, and what they earn.
UK pay-later checks block some shoppers
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Since July, UK buy now, pay later lenders must check every purchase is affordable.
Buy now, pay later splits a price into instalments, usually with no interest.
Klarna
the UK's largest pay-later lender
The FCA
the UK's financial regulator
Lenders such as Klarna, the UK's largest, now need the financial regulator's approval.
The checks apply even to purchases under £50.
A shopper who fails a check has the purchase blocked.
In 2025, 8.5 million people made over 100 million such purchases, worth over £7bn, Experian says.
- 1low estimate10%
- 2high estimate30%
Fair4All Finance, a non-profit, estimated 10% to 30% of users would fail the checks.
Nearly half of those likely to be rejected had never missed a payment, it said.
Why it matters
With Christmas near, more shoppers may meet the checks just as money is tight.
Why it matters
Debt charities see people using pay-later plans for food and energy bills.
How it works
UK credit rules call for a 'proportionate' affordability check, run on every purchase.
The truth
“the new rules largely formalise what we already do”
Klarna says "the new rules largely formalise what we already do."
The truth
Fair4All warns that people turned away may turn to loan sharks.
How it works
Every purchase is now checked, and a non-profit found nearly half of the shoppers likely to fail had never missed a payment.
The idea, in story 2: Why a stricter check also turns away honest people →Nobody knows yet
How many UK shoppers have been blocked by pay-later checks since July.
Fair4All Finance estimated beforehand that 10% to 30% of users would fail; no count since July is in our sources.
Good news
Shoppers in the UK who split payments with pay-later lenders can now take a complaint to the Financial Ombudsman Service, a free independent referee. In 2025, 98.5% of pay-later balances were repaid on time.
The full story
UK pay-later checks block some shoppers
Since July, UK buy now, pay later lenders must check every purchase is affordable.
Why it matters. With Christmas near, more shoppers may meet the checks just as money is tight.
UK gives no date for equal youth pay
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John Healey
UK chancellor
UK chancellor John Healey would not say when 18-to-20-year-olds will get the adult minimum wage.
From April, workers aged 21 and over get at least £13.21 an hour.
Workers aged 18 to 20 get at least £11.27 an hour.
Both rates rise 3.9%, so the gap between them stays.
How it got here
Labour's 2024 election manifesto promised to close that gap.
“It's a question of when.”
On Sunday, Healey told the BBC: "It's a question of when."
He said he must weigh jobs against wages for young people.
Why it matters
More than 1 million 18-to-24-year-olds are not in work, education or training.
How it works
Economists weigh a higher wage floor against the risk of fewer jobs for young workers.
The truth
Firms employing 18-to-20-year-olds can keep paying them less per hour while the gap stays.
The truth
The promise to close the gap before the next election is now in doubt.
2 sources
UK gives no date for equal youth pay
The full story
UK gives no date for equal youth pay
UK chancellor John Healey would not say when 18-to-20-year-olds will get the adult minimum wage.
Why it matters. More than 1 million 18-to-24-year-olds are not in work, education or training.
Scammers use leaked birthdays to pose as banks
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Criminals call people posing as their bank, reading out their name, address and birthday.
Knowing those details makes the call seem real.
Birthdays are often stored when people sign up at shops or loyalty schemes.
Customers' birthdays were taken in a recent hack of Asos, an online clothes shop.
8 of 14
shops that asked for a birthday
A scam investigator found 8 of 14 online shops asked for a birthday at sign-up.
Shops need only card details and a delivery address, he says.
Banks
Lenders
Tax offices
Banks, lenders and tax offices use a birthday to match a person to official records.
Why it matters
With a name and phone number, a birthday helps criminals steal identities, a security adviser says.
How it works
Security experts call it a jigsaw: small leaked details joined into one full profile.
The truth
The investigator says shops keep asking because a birthday tells them a customer's age for adverts.
How it works
People check a caller by whether they know their name and birthday, and once those details leak, the check lets a criminal through.
The idea, in story 2: Why a stricter check also turns away honest people →1 source
Scammers use leaked birthdays to pose as banks
The full story
Scammers use leaked birthdays to pose as banks
Criminals call people posing as their bank, reading out their name, address and birthday.
Why it matters. With a name and phone number, a birthday helps criminals steal identities, a security adviser says.
More Americans borrow against their homes
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More than 1 million Americans borrowed against their homes in the first half of 2026.
2022
last time this many
2026
more than 1 million
That was the most for a first half since 2022, says data firm Intercontinental Exchange.
US homeowners hold a record $35.8 trillion in home equity: the value they own outright.
Cash-out refinancing, replacing a mortgage and taking cash, rose 12% in a year.
Lines of credit with a rate that moves are still the most used way to borrow.
- 1low end7%
- 2high end8.5%
This autumn's US interest rate rise made such borrowing dearer, at 7% to 8.5%.
Why it matters
Families use it to pay off dearer debts, pay for college or cover living costs.
How it works
Even so, it costs less than most other borrowing, says the Mortgage Bankers Association's chief economist.
The truth
Each rise in rates makes a moving-rate line of credit cost more to repay.
The full story
More Americans borrow against their homes
More than 1 million Americans borrowed against their homes in the first half of 2026.
Why it matters. Families use it to pay off dearer debts, pay for college or cover living costs.
The truth, across the day
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What's really going on
New checks on US health-plan sign-ups and UK pay-later loans now stop some honest people, while a US betting app's check let a reporter who bet like a problem gambler become a VIP.
That's the whole Money day.
8 stories, 20 sources.