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Day Lila

Monday, 2 November 2026

2 Nov · Money · In brief

Money · Monday, 2 November 2026

Money, in brief

8 stories · 20 sources

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What is moving · 1 of 4

Health cover costing more

High ↑

US employers' health insurance costs rose 6.4% in the year to September. [1] On the US marketplace, the most a buyer pays toward care in a year, beyond premiums, rises 13% to $12,000. [8]

What is moving · 2 of 4

Stricter checks on who gets through

Building ↑

US marketplace buyers who use an agent must now prove who they are. [8] UK pay-later lenders must check that every purchase is affordable, even under £50. [16] Ohio wants betting apps to stop ads for 48 hours after a user sets limits. [12]

What is moving · 3 of 4

Fixes put off until later

Building →

Social Security could cut pensions by 22% in 2032 unless the US Congress acts first. [9] Candidates in only nine close Senate races have said what they would do. [10] The UK chancellor would not say when 18-to-20-year-olds get the adult minimum wage. [17]

What is moving · 4 of 4

Borrowing to get by

Building ↑

UK debt charities see people using pay-later plans for food and energy bills. [15] More than 1 million Americans borrowed against their homes in the first half of 2026. [20]

Part of the day's signal

One pressure seen across the day runs through Money too.

US pay rises 3.1% in a year, the slowest since 2021 and behind prices, while employers' health insurance costs rise 6.4%

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US wages and salaries rose 3.1% in the year to September, the slowest since early 2021. [2]

Prices rose faster than pay in the year to September.

Prices rose 3.6% in the same year, so pay bought about 0.6% less. [2]

What employers paid for workers' health insurance rose 6.4% over the year. [1]

Who is involved

Who is involved

Why it matters

So workers with health plans through their jobs are getting smaller raises. [3][1]

Why it matters

Health costs are a big issue in Tuesday's US elections, beside fuel and power bills. [1]

How it works

The index measures total compensation: everything an employer spends on a worker, not just the wage. [7]

How it works

Many firms facing dearer health plans answered with smaller raises, the New York Fed found. [3]

The truth

Berger says the figures may still understate the squeeze, as plans also cover less. [1]

The truth

how much is passed on

Nobody yet knows how much of 2027's 8.2% rise employers will pass on to workers. [4]

What comes next

Many workers pick plans this autumn and will see bigger deductions from their pay in 2027. [4]

What's really going on

In the US, health cover is eating into pay: employers' spending on workers' health insurance rose 6.4% in the year to September, while wages rose 3.1% and prices 3.6%. [1][2]

Why it works on people

A pay rise that goes up feels like a gain, even in a year when prices and health deductions went up faster.

Who gains

Dearer hospital and doctor care and weight-loss drugs are what push employer health premiums up, insurers' figures show, the New York Fed says. [3]

Who pays

Firms facing dearer plans gave raises about a point smaller than they otherwise would, the New York Fed found. [3]

Good news

US union workers' pay and benefits rose 4.3% in the year to September, faster than prices.

The short version

That's the story in short.

The whole story has 8 more parts.

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The whole story, in 8 parts ↓

Part 1 of 8 · Who else is involved

Part 2 of 8 · How it unfolded

Part 3 of 8

the Employment Cost Index

The figures come from the Employment Cost Index, which US officials released on Friday. [1]

Part 3 of 8

the same jobs, measured over time

It is a measure of what employers pay for the same jobs over time. [7]

Part 3 of 8

It counts wages and salaries, and also benefits such as health cover. [7]

Part 3 of 8

Bureau of Labor Statistics

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US government's job-figures agency, publishes it four times a year. [7][2]

Part 4 of 8

Counting wages and benefits together, the cost of employing a worker rose 3.4%. [2]

Part 4 of 8

Benefit costs grew faster than a year before.

Benefit costs rose 3.9%, up from 3.6% a year earlier. [2]

Part 4 of 8

Union contracts kept pay and benefits rising faster.

Union workers' pay and benefits rose 4.3%, against 3.3% for other workers. [2]

Part 5 of 8

Guy Berger, an economist at the Burning Glass Institute, says that pace matches a 20-year high. [1]

Part 5 of 8

a little faster pay

Had those costs grown 3%, wages might rise 0.2 to 0.3 points faster, he worked out. [1]

Part 5 of 8

a bigger share of the premium

He says workers now pay more of their premiums, the monthly bill for a plan. [1]

Part 6 of 8

A family health plan through work cost about $27,000 in 2025, the New York Fed found. [3]

Part 6 of 8

A family's work health plan costs about as much as a low-paid worker earns.

That is about a year's pay for a full-time worker earning $15 an hour. [3]

Part 6 of 8

the New York Fed

The New York Fed is part of the Federal Reserve, the US central bank. [3]

Part 6 of 8

Firms it surveyed that faced dearer health plans raised pay by 3.8% on average. [3]

Part 6 of 8

Firms said dearer health plans cost workers about a point of their raise.

Without the dearer plans, they said they would have raised it by about 4.7%. [3]

Part 7 of 8

In September, US employers added only 29,000 jobs, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. [5]

Part 7 of 8

Prices have climbed faster since the war with Iran began, and pay has not kept up. [5]

Part 7 of 8

From early 2020 to late 2025, prices rose about 25%, and pay after prices barely moved. [6]

Part 8 of 8

Marsh, a firm that advises employers, expects health costs per worker to rise 8.2% in 2027. [4]

Part 8 of 8

That would be the biggest rise since 2003. [4]

Part 8 of 8

2 of 3

large employers raising workers' share

About two-thirds of large employers expect to raise workers' share of premiums next year. [4]

Part 8 of 8

59% of employers plan cost-cutting changes, such as higher deductibles that raise workers' own costs. [4]

US health plan sign-up opens with ID checks

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Sign-up for 2027 marketplace health plans runs from 1 November to 15 January in most states. [8]

the marketplace

The marketplace sells health plans under the Affordable Care Act, often called Obamacare. [1]

a one-time code

Buyers using an agent on the federal site must now approve them with a one-time code. [8]

First-time buyers, movers and anyone paying $30 a month or less must also prove their identity. [8]

How it got here

checks on agents

The rules aim to stop fraud, including agents who sign people up without asking. [8]

Agents new for 2027 cannot sign anyone up until February, after sign-up ends. [8]

many legal immigrants lose help

Many legal immigrants, including refugees, can no longer get federal help with premiums. [8]

The benchmark plan for a 40-year-old, before any subsidy.

A 40-year-old's benchmark plan costs $704 a month in 2027, up from $624 in 2026. [1]

Why it matters

1 of 5

buyers who may face extra checks

Joshua Brooker, who runs an insurance agency, fears up to 1 in 5 face extra checks. [8]

Why it matters

going without cover

He fears some will give up and go without cover. [8]

How it works

the benchmark plan

In health policy the subsidy is tied to a benchmark: an area's second-cheapest silver plan. [8]

How it works

So when that plan's price rises, most buyers' help rises with it. [8]

The truth

A single person earning over $63,840 gets no help at all. [8]

How it works

Why a stricter check also turns away honest people

How it works

Credit risk analysts call them false approvals and false declines: every check lets some cheats through and stops some honest people.

How it works · step 1 of 6

A check uses clues to guess who is honest

How it works · step 2 of 6

Some honest people look risky, and some cheats look fine

How it works · step 3 of 6

So every check makes two kinds of mistake

How it works · step 4 of 6

Tighten it: fewer cheats pass, more honest people are stopped

How it works · step 5 of 6

Loosen it: more cheats pass, fewer honest people are stopped

How it works · step 6 of 6

Only a better clue cuts both mistakes at once

The twist

Raising the bar on a check stops more cheats. It also stops more honest people, because the clues stay the same; only better information cuts both.

The picture

Moving the bar swaps one mistake for the other. No setting avoids both.

Seen the same day

US health plan sign-up opens with ID checks

The US government now makes buyers paying $30 a month or less prove who they are, which catches honest low-cost buyers as well as fake sign-ups.

Seen the same day

UK pay-later checks block some shoppers

Every purchase is now checked, and a non-profit found nearly half of the shoppers likely to fail had never missed a payment.

Seen the same day

Scammers use leaked birthdays to pose as banks

People check a caller by whether they know their name and birthday, and once those details leak, the check lets a criminal through.

Seen the same day

US officials press betting apps over VIP perks

DraftKings' check for problem gambling let a reporter who bet like a problem gambler become a VIP, and that miss is what Louisiana and Ohio are now looking at.

The catch

A better clue can cut both mistakes at once, and the firms and agencies running checks rarely publish how many honest people they turn away.

The whole

Everyone in today's stories meets a check from one side: the health-plan buyer, the shopper, the bettor, the person answering the phone.

The whole

The people who set each line choose which mistake to risk, and they are rarely the people it stops.

Who gains

They keep big staffs all year, while agents new for 2027 are frozen out until February, a Florida broker says. [8]

Who pays

They can fail the identity questions even though they are real, a Georgetown researcher says. [8]

Nobody knows yet

How fast US marketplace premiums are really rising for 2027.

KFF puts the rise in the benchmark plan at 13%, while a KFF Health News report carried by NPR says premiums are set to rise 15%. [1][8]

Nobody knows yet

How many honest buyers will give up at the new US sign-up identity checks.

One agent fears up to 1 in 5 buyers who use agents will need extra checks; none of our sources gives an official estimate. [8]

Good news

Most people buying 2027 health plans on the US marketplace will still get a federal subsidy, and it rises when the price of the benchmark plan rises.

Tuesday's senators face Social Security's 2032 gap

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Social Security, the US state pension, could cut retirement payments by 22% in 2032. [9]

the retirement trust fund

Its retirement trust fund, a store of reserves, is projected to run out then. [9]

78 of 100

of promised payments covered, about 78%

After that, the taxes coming in would cover about 78% of promised payments. [11]

Two official estimates of the cut in 2032.

The US Congress's budget office expects it sooner, in mid-2032, with a 26% cut. [9]

A 24% cut would take about $500 a month from the average payment, by one estimate. [9]

Senators elected on 3 November serve six years, so they will be in office in 2032. [10][11]

35 Senate seats are being decided. [10]

Candidates in only 9 close races have said what they would do, CNBC found. [10]

Why it matters

81 of 100

voters who favour a plan, 81%

In close Senate states, 81% of voters polled favour a candidate who plans to stop cuts. [10]

How it works

Each side pays the same tax on pay up to $184,500.

Workers and employers each pay a 6.2% tax on pay up to $184,500 to fund it. [11]

How it works

In pension terms it is pay-as-you-go: once reserves are gone, payments shrink to what comes in. [11]

The truth

no tax rise soon

A tax expert says payroll tax rises are very unlikely in the next couple of years. [9]

What comes next

Merging the retirement and disability funds would move the date to 2034, with a 17% cut. [9]

Who pays

A 24% cut would take about $500 a month from the average Social Security payment, by one estimate. [9]

Nobody knows yet

When Social Security's reserve actually runs out, and how deep the cut would be.

Its trustees say late 2032 and 22%; the US Congress's budget office says mid-2032 and 26%. [9]

Nobody knows yet

Whether the US Congress fixes Social Security before the reserve runs out.

A tax expert says payroll taxes are very unlikely to rise in the next couple of years, and candidates in only nine close Senate races have given plans. [9][10]

Part of a signal

Tuesday's US vote and the money riding on it

Also seen in World, Food and Finance.

Farmers have been promised $15 billion before the vote, and state ballots decide who pays some taxes.

The whole signal →

US officials press betting apps over VIP perks

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licence renewal put off

On 15 October, Louisiana's gaming board put off renewing the licence of DraftKings, a betting app. [12]

Instead it got a four-month permit while investigators look into press reports. [12]

How it got here

a reporter betting like a problem gambler

ProPublica, a US newsroom, had a reporter bet like a problem gambler for weeks. [13]

How it got here

After he lost $1,800 in one night, DraftKings invited him to try for VIP status. [13]

A day after Louisiana's meeting, Ohio's regulators proposed a 48-hour rule. [12]

no ads for 48 hours

Apps could not send ads for 48 hours after a user sets limits. [12]

In ProPublica's test, betting offers arrived 30 minutes after the reporter set his limits. [12]

“does not market to customers based on indicators of potential problem gaming”
DraftKings

DraftKings says it "does not market to customers based on indicators of potential problem gaming." [12]

Why it matters

Three US lawmakers have asked betting firms how many customers are VIPs, and what they earn. [12]

How it works

responsible gaming tools

The industry calls its guardrails responsible gaming: limits and pauses a bettor can switch on. [12]

The truth

The lawmakers say VIP rewards push the most at-risk customers into debt and addiction. [12]

The truth

fewer people setting limits?

A former head of a problem-gambling council warns the rule could put people off setting limits. [12]

What comes next

Ohio's rule still faces more public hearings and comments before it can take effect. [12]

How it works

US officials press betting apps over VIP perks

DraftKings' check for problem gambling let a reporter who bet like a problem gambler become a VIP, and that miss is what Louisiana and Ohio are now looking at.

The idea, in story 2: Why a stricter check also turns away honest people →

Nobody knows yet

How many DraftKings customers are VIPs, and how much the company earns from them.

Three US lawmakers have asked; DraftKings said it would respond once it had reviewed the letter. [12]

UK pay-later checks block some shoppers

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a check on every purchase

Since July, UK buy now, pay later lenders must check every purchase is affordable. [14][16]

Buy now, pay later splits a price into instalments, usually with no interest. [15]

Lenders such as Klarna, the UK's largest, now need the financial regulator's approval. [15]

The checks apply even to purchases under £50. [16]

A shopper who fails a check has the purchase blocked. [14]

In 2025, 8.5 million people made over 100 million such purchases, worth over £7bn, Experian says. [15]

  1. 1low estimate10%
  2. 2high estimate30%
Share of users expected to fail the checks.

Fair4All Finance, a non-profit, estimated 10% to 30% of users would fail the checks. [15]

rejected, though never late

Nearly half of those likely to be rejected had never missed a payment, it said. [15]

Why it matters

Christmas

With Christmas near, more shoppers may meet the checks just as money is tight. [14]

Why it matters

Debt charities see people using pay-later plans for food and energy bills. [15]

How it works

a check on every purchase

UK credit rules call for a 'proportionate' affordability check, run on every purchase. [16]

The truth

“the new rules largely formalise what we already do”
A Klarna spokesman

Klarna says "the new rules largely formalise what we already do." [15]

The truth

loan sharks

Fair4All warns that people turned away may turn to loan sharks. [15]

How it works

UK pay-later checks block some shoppers

Every purchase is now checked, and a non-profit found nearly half of the shoppers likely to fail had never missed a payment.

The idea, in story 2: Why a stricter check also turns away honest people →

Nobody knows yet

How many UK shoppers have been blocked by pay-later checks since July.

Fair4All Finance estimated beforehand that 10% to 30% of users would fail; no count since July is in our sources. [15]

Good news

Shoppers in the UK who split payments with pay-later lenders can now take a complaint to the Financial Ombudsman Service, a free independent referee. In 2025, 98.5% of pay-later balances were repaid on time.

UK gives no date for equal youth pay

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UK chancellor John Healey would not say when 18-to-20-year-olds will get the adult minimum wage. [17]

From April, workers aged 21 and over get at least £13.21 an hour. [18]

The two minimum wages from April.

Workers aged 18 to 20 get at least £11.27 an hour. [18]

Both rates rise 3.9%, so the gap between them stays. [18]

How it got here

the 2024 promise

Labour's 2024 election manifesto promised to close that gap. [17]

“It's a question of when.”
John Healey

On Sunday, Healey told the BBC: "It's a question of when." [17]

Healey's stated trade-off.

He said he must weigh jobs against wages for young people. [17]

Why it matters

More than 1 million 18-to-24-year-olds are not in work, education or training. [18]

How it works

Economists weigh a higher wage floor against the risk of fewer jobs for young workers. [17]

The truth

a lower rate for younger staff

Firms employing 18-to-20-year-olds can keep paying them less per hour while the gap stays. [18]

The truth

before the next election?

The promise to close the gap before the next election is now in doubt. [17]

Scammers use leaked birthdays to pose as banks

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a fake call from the bank

Criminals call people posing as their bank, reading out their name, address and birthday. [19]

Knowing those details makes the call seem real. [19]

birthdays stored at sign-up

Birthdays are often stored when people sign up at shops or loyalty schemes. [19]

the Asos hack

Customers' birthdays were taken in a recent hack of Asos, an online clothes shop. [19]

8 of 14

shops that asked for a birthday

A scam investigator found 8 of 14 online shops asked for a birthday at sign-up. [19]

Shops need only card details and a delivery address, he says. [19]

Banks, lenders and tax offices use a birthday to match a person to official records. [19]

Why it matters

With a name and phone number, a birthday helps criminals steal identities, a security adviser says. [19]

How it works

Security experts call it a jigsaw: small leaked details joined into one full profile. [19]

The truth

age for adverts

The investigator says shops keep asking because a birthday tells them a customer's age for adverts. [19]

How it works

Scammers use leaked birthdays to pose as banks

People check a caller by whether they know their name and birthday, and once those details leak, the check lets a criminal through.

The idea, in story 2: Why a stricter check also turns away honest people →

More Americans borrow against their homes

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More than 1 million Americans borrowed against their homes in the first half of 2026. [20]

That was the most for a first half since 2022, says data firm Intercontinental Exchange. [20]

US homeowners hold a record $35.8 trillion in home equity: the value they own outright. [20]

Cash-out refinancing, replacing a mortgage and taking cash, rose 12% in a year. [20]

a rate that moves

Lines of credit with a rate that moves are still the most used way to borrow. [20]

  1. 1low end7%
  2. 2high end8.5%
Rates on home loans now.

This autumn's US interest rate rise made such borrowing dearer, at 7% to 8.5%. [20]

Why it matters

Families use it to pay off dearer debts, pay for college or cover living costs. [20]

How it works

cheaper than most borrowing

Even so, it costs less than most other borrowing, says the Mortgage Bankers Association's chief economist. [20]

The truth

Each rise in rates makes a moving-rate line of credit cost more to repay. [20]

The truth, across the day

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What's really going on

New checks on US health-plan sign-ups and UK pay-later loans now stop some honest people, while a US betting app's check let a reporter who bet like a problem gambler become a VIP. [8][15][12]

That's the whole Money day.

8 stories, 20 sources.