Climate & Energy · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Qatar sold the Gulf's gas to the world. Now it is trying to buy American gas until 2031.
QatarEnergy is negotiating multi-year contracts for US liquefied gas to cover a plant Iranian strikes damaged in March, and Europe is heading into winter with its gas stores at a 15-year low.
12.8m tonnes
of Qatar's yearly gas-export capacity, out of action since March
the repairs take three to five years, QatarEnergy's chief executive said
2031
the year the US gas contracts Qatar is negotiating would run to
its trading arm wants 2 to 3 million tonnes a year, from a US market with 25 million still unsold
66%
how full Europe's gas stores are, the lowest for mid-September in 15 years
stores usually peak in early November; last year they reached 83%
85%
drop in the Gulf's gas exports between March and August
producers outside the Gulf grew 18% and covered about three-quarters of the gap
The lead story — what happened
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QatarEnergy, Qatar's state-owned gas company, is negotiating multi-year contracts to buy US liquefied gas running through 2031, three trading and industry sources told Reuters on Friday.
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The talks include Venture Global, Cheniere and Woodside, three companies that chill gas into a liquid and ship it out of the US.
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Qatar wants the gas to replace what it lost in March, when Iranian strikes damaged two of the 14 gas-chilling units at its Ras Laffan complex and a gas-to-liquids plant.
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QatarEnergy's chief executive, Saad al-Kaabi, said in March that the repairs would keep 12.8 million tonnes a year of export capacity out of action for three to five years.
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Until now Qatar has bought dozens of single US cargoes to cover its customers in Asia. Years-long contracts are a different decision, and that is the news.
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Its trading arm is looking for 2 to 3 million tonnes a year. US export plants still under construction have 25 million tonnes a year unsold, according to the research firm Rapidan Energy.
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Qatar halted production in March and has renewed its force majeure notice, the legal warning that it cannot deliver, every month since. The latest runs to November.
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About 80% of Qatar's gas normally goes to buyers in Asia. Some market participants are now testing plans for a world with no Qatari gas at all, a fifth source said.
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Saul Kavonic of MST Marquee, an energy research firm, said the search for long-term volumes shows Qatar now sees risk to its exports for several years.
[1] He added that the damage may be worse than first hoped.[1] -
Europe is short of the same gas. Its storage sites are about 66% full, the lowest for this point in the year in 15 years.
[2] Benchmark gas prices hit 75 euros a megawatt-hour last week, double a year ago.[2] -
Gulf gas exports fell more than 85% between March and August. Producers elsewhere, mostly the US and Canada, grew output 18% and covered about three-quarters of the loss, the International Energy Agency says.
[2] -
The EU's own auditors said on Wednesday that its plan to quit Russian gas is faltering.
[3] Countries have committed 54.3 billion euros of the 300 billion set aside, and a ban on all Russian liquefied gas starts on 1 January 2027.[3]
Who is involved
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QatarEnergy
Qatar's state-owned gas company and the Gulf's biggest gas exporter; it is negotiating to buy US gas until 2031
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Venture Global, Cheniere and Woodside
three companies that chill gas and ship it out of the United States; they are in the talks and have 22 million tonnes a year unsold between them
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Saad al-Kaabi
QatarEnergy's chief executive; he said in March the repairs would take three to five years
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The European Court of Auditors
the EU's spending watchdog; it said on Wednesday the plan to quit Russian energy is faltering
How it unfolded
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Late Feb-Mar the US-Iran war begins
[4] ; the Strait of Hormuz closes[2] -
March Iranian strikes damage two of Ras Laffan's 14 gas-chilling units; Qatar halts production
[1] -
Summer Asia's heat pulls cargoes east; Europe misses its refill
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Wed EU auditors say the Russian-gas exit is faltering; stores 67% full
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Fri Reuters reports Qatar negotiating US contracts to 2031
[1] -
1 Jan 2027 the EU ban on Russian liquefied gas starts
[3]
Where this points
Watch whether any of the three US exporters signs: a contract to 2031 would confirm Qatar expects years without its full plant, and those unsold cargoes are the ones Europe is counting on.
What is pushing on the whole day
The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.
Qatar has renewed its notice that it cannot deliver every month since March.
Heating oil in Britain has gone from about 60p a litre to about 97p since the Iran conflict began.
Heavy rain flooded roads and Asian Games venues in Nagoya, Japan, and 400 people were evacuated.
Five green groups took the EU's rewrite of its water laws to the European Ombudsman.
The rest of the day
13 more stories on this beat.
Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.
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02
EU auditors: the exit from Russian energy is faltering
The European Court of Auditors, the EU's spending watchdog, said on Wednesday that the bloc's plan to stop using Russian oil and gas is faltering.
[3] Russia now supplies 12% of the EU's gas imports, down from 45% before 2022.[3] The auditors said mild weather and high prices did much of that, not policy.[3] The European Commission set aside 300 billion euros for the switch; member countries have committed 54.3 billion.[3] Gas stores are 67% full against 80% a year ago, and a ban on all Russian liquefied gas starts on 1 January 2027.[3] Why it matters — With the Gulf's gas shut in, the two supplies Europe was leaning on are short at the same time, and the Russian ban lands in the middle of the coming winter.
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03
Supertanker rates hit a record
The cost of shipping oil in the largest tankers hit a record this week.
[4] A supertanker loading in the Gulf of Oman for China now costs about $11.50 a barrel, on Baltic Exchange data.[4] The jump followed the biggest wave of attacks on ships since the war began in late February.[4] Iran said it hit 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz after the US sank five Iranian tankers.[4] Fear of retaliation keeps ships away, which thins the tankers on offer, and rates from West Africa to Asia also set a record.[4] Why it matters — Every barrel that sails from the Gulf of Oman to China now carries about $11.50 of freight before anyone refines it, and that cost reaches fuel prices in Asia.
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04
Heating oil nearly doubles for rural Britain
About 41,000 homes in Devon and 34,500 in Cornwall rely on heating oil.
[5] Heating oil has risen from about 60p a litre before the Iran conflict to about 97p, the comparison site Boiler Juice says.[5] A Devon councillor said filling a tank could cost a family 500 pounds more than it expected.[5] Unlike gas and electricity, heating oil has no Ofgem price cap.[5] In Guernsey a full tank now costs about 1,150 pounds against 750 last year.[5] The UK government says it has put 53 million pounds towards heating-oil users.[5] Why it matters — This is where the closed strait in the lead reaches a kitchen: the households outside the price cap pay first.
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05
Africa's solar factories to make four times more panels
Africa's capacity to make solar panels will quadruple to 3.5 gigawatts this year, the think tank Ember says.
[6] Most of it is 2 gigawatts of new factories in Egypt and about 500 megawatts in Tanzania.[6] Those lines are built to sell into the US, where tariffs make Chinese panels dear.[6] China sent 19 gigawatts of solar cells into Africa in two and a half years, while Africa made 2.7 gigawatts of panels, so most cells were probably re-shipped to the US.[6] US tariff changes due in December could push the panels into African use instead.[6] Why it matters — A tariff wall in the US decided where factories were built in Egypt; if the wall moves in December, the same factories may end up supplying African roofs.
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06
Madagascar's utility loses money on every unit it sells
Madagascar, an island of about 34 million people, uses barely 2.5 terawatt-hours of electricity a year, 12% of what Brussels uses.
[7] Much of it comes from diesel generators.[7] The state utility Jirama sells power under a price cap while paying world prices for diesel, so it loses money on almost every kilowatt-hour and cannot afford repairs.[7] Rolling blackouts helped drive the unrest at the end of 2025 that forced out the former president.[7] A consortium led by Enerdeal, part of Portugal's EDP, has added solar and batteries to diesel plants at five sites since 2016.[7] Why it matters — Oil at $100 lands hardest on grids that burn it to make electricity; in Madagascar it is the reason solar gets built, not a climate target.
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07
Floods push people out for years, a global study finds
A study in Nature Climate Change, published on Friday, matched two decades of floods, droughts, cyclones and crop failures to migration data for regions inside countries around the world.
[8] After floods, more people left and fewer arrived, an effect lasting several years and stronger in poorer areas.[8] The authors point to wrecked housing and infrastructure, and to people's awareness of the risk.[8] Cyclones had a similar effect in poorer areas.[8] Droughts changed migration mainly in richer places, and only briefly.[8] Disasters have displaced roughly 265 million people over the past decade, the authors note.[8] Why it matters — After four years of floods in a row, fewer people leave the places already losing people; the authors read that as adapting in place, or as having no means left to move.
[8] -
08
Nepal's mountain collapse: three clocks, one border
On 26 August a wall of rock and glacier ice fell from Langtang Lirung, a 7,200-metre peak in Nepal.
[9] It became a debris flow that crossed into China, wrecked the Gyirong border port and ran about 100 km down Nepal's valleys.[9] Nepal counted 469 dead and 977 missing; China five and 558.[9] The first signal was logged as a magnitude 4.4 earthquake.[9] Scientists writing in Nature's natural-hazards journal this week say the part people control is the handover: turning that reading into a warning that crosses a border.[9] They want shared monitoring and pre-agreed alerts.[9] Why it matters — The rock took minutes to reach the villages. A warning would have had to cross the border in less time than that, and no such warning exists yet.
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09
Nagoya floods ten days before the Asian Games
Torrential rain flooded roads in Nagoya, central Japan, last week and sent water into venues for the Asian Games, which open on 19 September.
[10] About 400 athletes and staff were evacuated and later returned; nobody was hurt, a Games official said.[10] Roofs at several venues leaked.[10] Mayor Ichiro Hirosawa said the Games will open on time, and added that he could not yet judge the damage outside the city.[10] Why it matters — A city that spent years preparing found out how much of the event rests on ten days of weather.
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10
Green groups take the EU's water-law rewrite to the watchdog
The WWF, the European Environmental Bureau and three other groups complained to the European Ombudsman on Tuesday about the European Commission.
[11] The Commission plans to revise the EU's main water laws this year, partly because mining companies say the rules delay permits for new mines.[11] The groups say the Commission neither gathered evidence nor consulted before announcing it, and that water law is not why mines are slow.[11] The Ombudsman can only recommend.[11] Last year it made the Commission explain why it fast-tracked other cuts to green rules without checking them against climate commitments.[11] Why it matters — The omnibus is the EU's word for trimming environmental law to compete with the US and China, and each trim is now contested one rule at a time.
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11
Investors have put $14 billion into fusion
Investors have put more than $14 billion into companies trying to build fusion power plants, $4.5 billion of it in the last year, a record, Bloomberg reports.
[12] Fusion joins light atoms, the sun's process.[12] In late 2022 a US laboratory's laser first got more energy out of a fusion reaction than it put in.[12] Pacific Fusion has started building a $1 billion test site in Albuquerque, New Mexico, due to run in 2030.[12] Thea Energy aims for $50 a megawatt-hour after five to ten plants, about the price of wind, solar and gas.[12] Why it matters — Microsoft and Google have already signed as customers for plants that do not exist yet; the data-centre boom is paying for physics experiments.
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12
A German group sues to block Russian-linked nuclear fuel
BUND Niedersachsen, a German environmental group, sued the state of Lower Saxony on Friday to overturn its approval for a bigger nuclear fuel plant in Lingen.
[13] The plant belongs to a subsidiary of France's Framatome, which would make fuel rods for Russian-designed reactors under licence from Rosatom, Russia's state nuclear company.[13] The group says the screening used outdated documents and that Rosatom-supplied machines in production and quality control could be manipulated.[13] The German government says it views the cooperation critically but that it was legal; stricter EU sanctions would be the tool to stop it.[13] Why it matters — Framatome calls the deal an interim step so customers with Russian reactors can stop buying directly from Russia; Europe's Russian-built reactors still need Russian-designed fuel.
[13] -
13
A crypto farm in Mexico's mountains may have run on stolen hydropower
Police found a cryptocurrency mining operation in a ramshackle building near Tlaola, in the mountains of Puebla state, Mexico.
[14] Inside were 300 graphics processors, 80 medium-voltage terminals and eight satellite dishes.[14] It is the fourth such farm found near a hydroelectric dam there since early last year, and authorities are investigating whether it stole the dam's electricity.[14] Neighbours heard the whirring a kilometre away.[14] Electricity is the biggest expense in mining bitcoin, about $45,000 a coin by Cambridge University's estimate; with stolen power, one energy-theft expert said, the operation pays almost nothing to run.[14] Why it matters — Analysts say cartels are turning to crypto mining to launder money, and stolen electricity turns a river into cash that is hard to trace.
[14] -
14
Chevron will double its rigs in Venezuela
Chevron, one of the biggest US oil companies, will more than double the drilling rigs it runs in Venezuela, its finance chief Eimear Bonner said on Tuesday.
[15] Last week its joint ventures there said they would invest more than $7 billion to more than double output to 600,000 barrels a day by 2031.[15] Bonner said production could then hold at 600,000 to 700,000 barrels a day for five to ten years.[15] Chevron's new contract also gives it the right to international arbitration, the guarantee ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips wanted after their assets were nationalised in 2007.[15] Why it matters — The Trump administration has urged oil companies to invest since US forces removed Nicolas Maduro, and the arbitration clause is what makes a company willing to plan five years out.
[15]
What gets built depends on how long the shortage is expected to last
Qatar covered its customers with spare cargoes for six months; expecting years without its plant, it now wants contracts that run to 2031.
The twist
The size of a shortage sets what buyers pay this week. How long people expect it to last decides which contracts, factories and rigs exist in 2031.
How it works
- A supply is cut: a strike on a plant, a closed strait, a tariff
- At first, buyers cover the gap with whatever is spare
- The spare runs out and the price stays high
- Once people expect the gap to last years, they stop buying spare cargoes and start building
- They sign long contracts, build factories, drill new wells
- Those things outlast the shortage that caused them
The same force, elsewhere today
Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.
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Africa's solar factories
US tariffs on Chinese panels have lasted long enough for 2 gigawatts of factories to be built in Egypt to get around them. A tariff change in December would strand that bet.
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Madagascar's diesel grids
Diesel there has been dear for years, not weeks, so the fix being built is solar bolted onto the generators, not a cheaper cargo.
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Chevron's rigs in Venezuela
The $7 billion plan arrived in the same contract as the arbitration right. That right is the guarantee the terms hold long enough for the rigs to pay back.
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The $14 billion on fusion
Tech firms expect to need power for decades, so Microsoft and Google signed as customers for plants due in 2028 and the early 2030s, before they exist.
Where you've seen this
Renting a home
a tenant on a one-year lease fixes nothing; one who expects to stay ten years paints the walls
Drought on a farm
in a dry month a farmer buys water; after three dry years, the farmer drills a well
A busy workshop
a rush order gets overtime; an order book that runs for years gets a new hire and a bigger building
A blocked road
a closure of a day gets a detour sign; a closure of a year gets a new road
The catch
People are often wrong about how long a gap will last. What they built on the wrong guess is still there when the gap closes: a gas contract to 2031 does not end when the strait reopens.
And the whole of it
Qatar's traders, a family in Devon deciding when to fill the oil tank, a utility in Madagascar and a fusion investor are all guessing how long this lasts. None of them can see the others' guess. Most of us are inside the same guess somewhere, with a boiler, a lease or a job, and each of us sees only our own corner of it.
What is really going on
Qatar's gas plant was hit in March, and its chief executive said repairs would take three to five years. Six months later the company is trying to buy American gas until 2031, and an analyst reads that as Qatar now expecting years without its full plant. Europe is heading into winter with its stores 66% full and is counting on the same unsold American cargoes.
Why it works on us — A story sourced to unnamed traders reads as market rumour. But the length of the contract is the fact: nobody asks for gas to 2031 for a problem they expect to end by spring.
Who gains
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US gas exporters with unsold capacity
— Venture Global has 10 million tonnes a year uncontracted, Cheniere and Woodside 6 each, and one source said Qatar will have to buy whatever it can get.
[1] -
Gas producers outside the Gulf
— Their output grew 18% in the year to June, and European benchmark prices are double a year ago.
[2] -
Tanker owners
— A supertanker voyage from the Gulf of Oman to China now earns about $11.50 a barrel, a record.
[4] -
Panel factories in Egypt and Tanzania
— US tariffs on Chinese panels create the price gap those 2.5 gigawatts of factories were built to fill.
[6] -
Fusion start-ups
— A record $4.5 billion in a year, with Microsoft and Google signed as customers before any plant exists.
[12] -
Chevron
— A contract with international arbitration rights and a planned plateau of 600,000 to 700,000 barrels a day for five to ten years.
[15]
Who pays
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Rural households on heating oil in Devon, Cornwall and Guernsey
— About 60p a litre has become 97p, there is no price cap, and a tank can cost 500 pounds more than expected.
[5] -
Madagascar's electricity users and its utility
— Jirama loses money on almost every kilowatt-hour it sells under the price cap, and cannot pay for repairs, so the blackouts continue.
[7] -
Gas users in Germany and the Netherlands this winter
— Stores are 54% and 48% full, which means more reliance on spot cargoes at whatever price they fetch.
[2] -
Asian buyers of Qatari gas
— About 80% of Qatar's shipments normally go to Asia, and some in the market are testing plans for none at all.
[1] -
Families in Rasuwa, Nepal, and Gyirong, China
— 469 dead and 977 missing on the Nepal side, five dead and 558 missing on the Chinese side, and 35 road bridges gone.
[9] -
People in poorer flood-hit regions
— More of them leave and fewer move in for years after a flood, the global study finds.
[8]
What nobody knows yet
Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.
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01
Whether Qatar actually signs a contract.
QatarEnergy did not respond to Reuters. Venture Global and Cheniere declined to comment, and Woodside called it market speculation.
[1] -
02
How long Ras Laffan really stays part-shut.
The chief executive said three to five years in March. One analyst says the damage may be worse than first hoped, and the force majeure is renewed a month at a time.
[1] -
03
How full Europe's stores will be when winter starts.
One estimate puts the November peak at 70% to 75% against 83% last year. The same Gas Infrastructure Europe data reads 66% in one report and 67% in another, a day apart.
[2] [3] -
04
How much of Africa's 3.5 gigawatts gets built, and where the panels go.
Ember says the data are extremely limited, most African customs offices do not report imports of solar cells, and US tariffs change in December.
[6] -
05
Whether the Puebla crypto farm was stealing the dam's power.
Mexican authorities say they are investigating, and the federal attorney's office declined to comment.
[14] -
06
Whether the Ombudsman opens an inquiry into the water-law rewrite.
Deciding takes a few weeks, and the watchdog can only make recommendations.
[11] -
07
Whether the Langtang collapse began in rock or in ice.
The authors say that is unresolved, and every casualty figure remains provisional.
[9] -
08
Why floods change where people go.
The study shows the pattern, not the cause; the authors suggest wrecked housing and awareness of risk, and say the effect differs by hazard, timing and income.
[8] -
09
Whether the Lingen fuel plant can be stopped.
The case is before the court in Lueneburg, and the German government says the only real tool is stricter EU sanctions.
[13]
Africa will install a record 17 gigawatts of solar this year, about 100,000 panels a day, and 36 of its 54 countries are on track for a record.
Also true today
- About 400 athletes and staff evacuated from flooded venues in Nagoya all returned, and nobody was hurt.
- In late 2022 a laboratory got more energy out of a fusion reaction than it put in. More than 50 companies are now trying to turn that into a power plant, and one has started building a test site due to run in 2030.
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