Food & Farming · Sunday, 27 September 2026

01 Briefing what happened

Rain slows Iowa's harvest, and soybean mills pay up to $1 a bushel over the futures price to keep running

Food & Farming 20 sources

A wet September left Iowa's soybeans in the fields while last year's beans ran out, so mills built to press a record crop are paying farmers extra for beans delivered this week.

a bushel over the futures price, Cargill's bid at its Sioux City mill in Iowa

for beans delivered on Thursday or Friday; for Saturday the bid fell to 15 cents under [1]

of Iowa's soybeans harvested by 20 September

a usual year has 5% in by then, while across 18 states the harvest is ahead, at 12% [2]

2.78 billion

bushels of soybeans US mills are expected to press this crop year, a record

the US Department of Agriculture's projection; new mills were built for biofuel demand [1]

The lead story — what happened

Soybean mills in Iowa, Indiana and Minnesota are paying farmers extra for beans delivered within days, because last year's beans have run out and this year's are still in wet fields. [1]
A mill presses soybeans into soymeal, a protein feed for farm animals, and soy oil, used in food and in biofuel. [1]
Cargill, a global farm-trading giant, bid $1 a bushel over the Chicago November futures price for beans brought to its Sioux City mill on Thursday or Friday. [1]
The futures price is what traders agree now for beans delivered later, and Cargill's bid came to $14.175 a bushel. [1]
For beans delivered on Saturday, the same mill bid 15 cents under the futures price, so the extra money was only for beans that came this week. [1]
Bunge's mill at Council Bluffs, Iowa, raised its extra payment from 65 cents to 85 cents a bushel. [1] ADM, CHS and Shell Rock Soy Processing paid similar extras in Iowa and Minnesota. [1]
Some mills have cut back, and three Cargill mills in Iowa offered no soymeal for sale because of a lack of beans, grain traders said. [1]
October soymeal futures hit their highest level since that contract began trading. [1] They cost more than December soymeal for the first time in more than two years. [1]
The cause is rain: heavy August rain soaked the crops, and late-summer rain left fields too muddy for harvesting machines. [1] Wisconsin had only 3.5 days fit for fieldwork in the week to 20 September. [3]
The US Department of Agriculture's weekly count put Iowa's soybean harvest at 2% on 20 September, against a five-year average of 5%. [2]
Across 18 states the harvest is ahead: 12% of soybeans were in, against 8% on average, led by the South, where Louisiana was at 73%. [2] In drier Kansas, 40% of the corn was in, against 28% usually. [4]
The mills were built for more beans: US crushing capacity grew with demand for soy oil in biofuel, and the USDA expects a record 2.78 billion bushels pressed this crop year. [1]

1Iowa this year2%
2Iowa in a usual year5%
318 states, usual year8%
418 states this year12%

Share of the soybean crop harvested by 20 September. The country as a whole is ahead of normal; Iowa, home to many of the mills, is behind.

Who is involved

Cargill

a global farm-trading giant; it paid the most for beans this week, and three of its Iowa mills had no soymeal to sell
Bunge

a global crop trader that runs soybean mills; it raised its bids at Council Bluffs in Iowa and Decatur in Indiana
Roger Cerven

a farmer in south-west Iowa; he sold his last old beans to Bunge and says he knows nobody with beans to sell
The National Agricultural Statistics Service

the US government office that counts the harvest every week; it put Iowa's soybeans at 2% harvested

How it unfolded

August heavy rain soaks crops in Indiana and Iowa and slows their drying [1]
20 Sep the weekly USDA count puts Iowa's soybean harvest at 2%, against 5% usually [2]
Thu 24 Sep Cargill bids $1 over futures at Sioux City, and October soymeal hits its contract high [1]
Next week forecasts show more rain across the region [1]

Where this points

Forecasts showed more rain into the next week, so watch whether Iowa's fields dry out: the extra payments last only while the mills cannot get beans. [1]

What is pushing on the whole day

The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.

Rain and drought on crops High↑

Late-summer rain kept Iowa's soybean harvest at 2% by 20 September, against 5% in a usual year. [2] India's monsoon rain ran 15% below average, and farmers there are buying less seed. [12] El Nino, a warm spell in the Pacific, cut the forecast for Philippine rice. [13]

Food prices staying high Building→

US grocery prices were 2.2% higher in August than a year earlier. [16] In Russia, beef cost 76% more in July than in January 2022. [15] Rice prices in the Philippines are high, and the cap on them is unlikely to be renewed. [13]

Farm money running short High↑

England's 233 million pound fund paying farmers to look after nature ran out in under six hours. [10] The National Farmers' Union said cash pressure on farms added to the rush. [10] An Iowa farmer said his pay from raising hogs fell by two-thirds over 35 years. [20]

Fewer animals on farms Steady↓

The US herd of breeding sows is 1% smaller than a year ago. [6] India's cattle herd is forecast slightly lower, because more animals are going to slaughter for meat. [14]

The rest of the day

12 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

02
US pig herd 2% smaller

There were 74.3 million hogs and pigs on US farms on 1 September, 2% fewer than a year before, the US Department of Agriculture counted on 24 September. [5] The breeding herd of sows fell 1%, to 5.87 million. [6] Farmers plan to have 2% fewer sows give birth from September to November. [6] Each litter raised 11.96 piglets over the summer, up from 11.82 a year earlier. [6][7]

11.82 pigletsSummer 2025 litter
11.96 pigletsSummer 2026 litter
Piglets raised per litter from June to August, from the USDA's count. Litters were a little bigger this summer, which makes up for part of having fewer sows.

Why it matters — Fewer sows giving birth this autumn means fewer pigs later, though bigger litters make up part of the gap. [6] Iowa holds a third of the herd, 24.7 million pigs. [7]
03
Falsely marked meat recalled across the US

US food-safety officials recalled more than 167,000 pounds of raw pork, beef and goat on Tuesday 22 September. [8] Star Meat Delivery, a North Carolina company, had put a federal inspection mark, EST. 1363, on meat it was not approved to process. [8][9] Officials said on 25 September that it had worked for four years without proper inspections or permits. [9] No one has been reported ill. [8]

Why it matters — The meat passed through at least four companies, including a Georgia distributor, A&D Foods, before a small shop in South Carolina sold it. [8][9] The Trump administration is also removing inspection rules it calls unnecessary, to help small meat plants compete. [9]
04
England's farm nature fund gone in six hours

England's 233 million pound Sustainable Farming Incentive ran out of money in under six hours on Tuesday 22 September. [10] The scheme replaced EU subsidies after Brexit, and pays farmers to plant hedges, sow wildflower strips and protect soil. [10] It opened at 10:00 and closed at 15:48, and thousands of farmers missed out. [10] Ministers had added 20 million pounds on top of 50 million pounds announced in August. [10]

10:00Scheme opens
15:48Money runs out
Tuesday 22 September: England's 233 million pound nature fund for farmers ran dry in under six hours.

Why it matters — The National Farmers' Union said cash pressure on farms added to the rush. [10] England's government says more money will come in 2027, but has not said how much. [10]
05
Palm oil falls to a seven-week low

Palm oil prices in Kuala Lumpur fell as much as 1.3% on 23 September, to 4,750 ringgit a tonne, the lowest since 3 August. [11] It was the fifth day of falls in a row, the longest run since late February. [11] Traders worry that stocks are piling up in Malaysia, the world's second-biggest grower, as output peaks and demand weakens. [11] Crude oil and other vegetable oils fell too. [11]

Why it matters — Full stores in Malaysia pushed the price down. [11] In Iowa the same week, empty bins pushed the price of soybeans for quick delivery up. [1]
06
India's farmers buy less seed and spray

Indian farmers are spending less on pesticides, fertilisers and seeds this year because the monsoon has been weak, the head of Rallis India told Reuters. [12] Rallis sells seeds and crop chemicals and is owned by Tata Chemicals. [12] Monsoon rain was 15% below average by 21 September, the bank Barclays said. [12] Rivals Dhanuka Agritech and Godrej Agrovet also blamed the rain for weak sales. [12]

August16%
September so far18%
Whole season to 21 Sep15%
How far India's monsoon rain fell below normal, by period, according to Barclays.

Why it matters — The June to September monsoon brings nearly 70% of India's yearly rain, so a weak one makes farmers unsure of a full harvest. [12] Winter crops such as wheat are planted from October, so the next spending choice comes soon. [12]
07
Philippine rice forecast cut

The US farm office in Manila has cut its forecast for Philippine rice production in 2026/27. [13] It blames El Nino and high fertiliser costs, while demand holds up despite high shop prices. [13] The Philippine Department of Agriculture has stopped imports of premium-grade rice and is unlikely to extend its cap on shop prices. [13] Forecast imports are unchanged, to cover the shortfall and build a reserve against drought. [13]

Why it matters — Filipino shoppers face a smaller harvest and a price cap that is likely to end. [13] The Philippine government is also running a safeguard investigation, a formal review that can lead to limits on imports. [13]
08
India's buffalo meat heads for new records

India's exports of carabeef, the meat of water buffalo, are forecast to reach 1.9 million tonnes in 2027, up 2.7%, the US Department of Agriculture's office in India said this month. [14] Exports are near record levels because Indian meat is cheap and new markets keep opening. [14] Total cattle and buffalo meat output is forecast to grow to 5 million tonnes. [14]

Why it matters — More meat means more animals slaughtered, and India's herd is forecast to shrink slightly to 307 million head. [14] Indians are eating more of it too, because it is cheaper than other meats. [14]
09
Russian food prices up sharply since the war

Beef in Russia cost 76% more in July 2026 than in January 2022, according to Rosstat, the state statistics agency. [15] Fresh coffee rose 81%, and butter and milk almost 50%, pushed by inflation, tax rises and Western sanctions. [15] A New York Times reporter in Moscow found bananas at a local shop nearly doubled since August 2022. [15] Another shopper noticed milk sold in 900ml packs where a litre used to be. [15]

Fresh coffee81%
Beef76%
Rise in Russian average prices from January 2022 to July 2026, according to Rosstat.

Why it matters — Wages have not kept up with prices, so families have less left at the end of each month. [15] One shopper said she had stopped buying salmon and berries. [15]
10
US grocery prices flat for a month

US grocery prices were 2.2% higher in August than a year before, and did not rise at all from July, official price data showed. [16] Ricky Volpe, a farm-business professor at Cal Poly, expects them to rise again as tariffs, fertiliser, diesel and dearer corn work through. [16] Grocers' profits averaged only 2.3% of sales since 2020, says FMI, the industry's trade group. [16]

Why it matters — Volpe said a dearer crop takes time to show up first in wholesale prices and then in shops. [16] Restaurant prices have risen faster than grocery prices since before the pandemic, though that rise has slowed over the past year. [17]
11
Review of 8 million people links processed food to illness

A review of 51 long-running studies covering more than 8 million people linked eating more ultra-processed food, such as sweets and packaged snacks, with heart disease, cancer, obesity, depression and earlier death. [18] Each extra 100 grams a day was tied to higher risk. [18] Eight of the studies found no link with high blood pressure, and the authors could not say how much is safe. [18]

Why it matters — The studies follow people over time, so they show links, not proof that the food caused the illness. [18] In California, Non-UPF Verified, a group that runs its own label, asked Governor Gavin Newsom to veto a bill creating a state label for food that is not ultra-processed. [18]
12
Salty soil wastes farm fertiliser

Salty farmland makes crops waste nitrogen fertiliser, a study published this week in the journal Nature Food found. [19] On salty fields farmers use 13% more nitrogen, the crop takes up 7% less, and 61% more nitrogen escapes into air and water. [19] Ten ways of managing salt could cut those losses by 59%, about 2.5 million tonnes a year. [19]

Why it matters — The authors put the net benefit at about $24.5 billion a year, with the biggest cuts in China, Pakistan and Indonesia. [19] It is a worldwide model, not yet a result measured on farms. [19]
13
An Iowa hog barn now grows mushrooms

An Iowa family that raised 2,000 hogs at a time has turned half of one 200-foot hog barn into a mushroom farm. [20] Under contract feeding, a company owned the pigs and paid for feed, while the family paid for the barns. [20] The Faaborgs borrowed $400,000 for two barns and took 12 years to pay it off. [20] Rand Faaborg said his pay from hogs fell by two-thirds over 35 years. [20]

Why it matters — Transfarmation, a project of the charity Mercy for Animals, pays the family $216,000 over four years to share its costs and results with other farmers. [20] More than half of US hogs, 56%, are raised on this kind of contract. [6]

02 Lesson why it matters

Once a barn or a mill is built, its owner must keep it busy

A mill's loan and wages are due whether beans arrive or not, so owners pay extra for beans, or find new work for an empty building.

The twist

Once a mill is built, its loan costs the same whether it runs or not. So paying extra for beans can cost the owner less than letting the mill stand still.

The picture

$1 overBeans by Friday

15 cents underBeans on Saturday

Cargill's bids at its Sioux City mill this week, above or below the Chicago futures price for November beans. The extra dollar was paid only for beans that arrived this week.

How it works

A mill or a barn costs a lot to build, and its loan is due whether it runs or not
After that, each day of work only has to pay for that day's beans, wages and power
So an owner will pay extra for supplies rather than let the building stand still
If supplies stop for good, the owner looks for other work to put in the building

The same force, elsewhere today

Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

The Iowa hog barn that now grows mushrooms

The Faaborgs had borrowed $400,000 for their barns, so when hogs stopped paying they filled the same buildings with mushrooms instead of leaving them empty.
More than half of US hogs raised on contract

The company owns the pigs, but the farmer owns the barn and its loan, so it is the farmer who most needs the barn kept full.

Where you've seen this

Airlines

the plane flies anyway, so a cheap last-minute seat still earns something

Hotels

an empty room tonight earns nothing, so a late booking is sold cheap

Cinemas

an afternoon show costs the same to run, so its tickets are cheaper

The catch

It only works while the beans earn more than they cost to buy. Some Iowa mills cut back this week because they could not find beans to buy at all.

And the whole of it

Farmers with old beans in their bins got the extra dollar this week, and farmers whose beans are still in wet fields got nothing from it. Anyone who eats pork, chicken or food fried in soy oil sits at the far end of these mills, and cannot see whether one of them ran on Saturday.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

Iowa's soybean mills grew to press a record crop for soy oil and fuel, and a wet September left them short of beans this week. The extra dollar a bushel goes only to farmers who still had old beans to sell. [1][2]

Who gains

Iowa farmers with old soybeans still in their bins — Mills bid up to $1 a bushel over the futures price for beans delivered this week. [1]
Anyone buying palm oil — Swelling stocks in Malaysia pushed the price to its lowest since early August. [11]
India's buffalo-meat exporters — Low prices and new markets are carrying exports towards 1.9 million tonnes in 2027. [14]
English farmers who applied in the first hours — They won nature payments from the 233 million pound fund before it closed at 15:48. [10]
The Faaborg family in Iowa — Transfarmation pays them $216,000 over four years to share what their mushroom farm costs and earns. [20]

Who pays

Iowa's soybean mills — Several cut back pressing, and three Cargill mills had no soymeal to offer. [1]
English farmers who missed the six-hour window — They must wait for a 2027 round that has no published budget. [10]
Indian seed and crop-chemical companies — Rallis, Dhanuka and Godrej Agrovet report weak sales as farmers hold back. [12]
Russian shoppers — Beef costs 76% more than in January 2022, and wages have not kept up. [15]
Rice buyers in the Philippines — Shop prices are high, and the cap on them is unlikely to be extended. [13]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

01

How long Iowa's mills stay short of beans.

It depends on the rain, and forecasts showed more showers into the next week; some mills have already cut back. [1]
02

How much the soymeal shortage adds to the cost of feeding pigs and chickens.

October soymeal hit a contract high, but none of the day's sources says what livestock farmers are paying. [1]
03

Whether Iowa catches up with the rest of the country.

The US soybean harvest is ahead of normal at 12%, while Iowa is at 2%, so the national number hides the shortage where the mills are. [2]
04

How many farmers were shut out of England's nature fund, and how big the 2027 round will be.

The BBC reports thousands missed out, but England's government has published no count and no 2027 budget. [10]
05

How Star Meat Delivery sold meat under a false mark without being caught sooner.

Officials say the company worked for four years without proper inspections or permits, and they have not named the shop that sold the meat. [9]
06

Whether ultra-processed food causes the illnesses it is linked to.

The review pools studies that follow people over time, which show links, and the authors say they cannot yet name a safe amount. [18]
07

Whether India's farmers will cut spending on their winter crops too.

They are saving on seed and spray now, and wheat and rapeseed are only planted from October. [12]
08

How much rice the Philippines will need to import.

The US farm office cut its production forecast but left imports unchanged, and a safeguard investigation into imports is still open. [13]

04 Hope carry this

US grocery prices did not rise at all from July to August, and were 2.2% higher than a year earlier.

Also true today

Federal food-safety officials found Star Meat Delivery's falsely marked meat through their own checks, and no one has been reported ill from it.
US sows raised an average of 11.96 piglets per litter this summer, up from 11.82 a year earlier.
An Iowa family turned half of an old hog barn into a mushroom farm this summer, and it is now open for other farmers to come and see how it was done.